It is about as 50/50 as it gets, it seems. I would lean towards upside because of the power law midline I posted earlier and the 128 day EMA that crossed it (which I will note here, is usually followed first by a dump to spring upwards), which in every instance in the past 10 years meant a sustained bull run for at least 6 months to 1 year, but there are other factors this time. Fear and Greed Index today is 41 and settling into a pattern of doubt. Volume is sketchy. The rally was curtailed at 10800. The wick up to 10900 on Binance a few hours ago felt like a poorly executed stop hunt, in preparation for further downside potential. Prices on the exchanges have settled into a mildly bullish scenario (generally speaking, when Bitmex leads the market, then it is bullish; if it is below spot exchange prices, it is bearish).
Technicals aside, this indecision has a real chance of taking longer than usual to play out.
My position: short term bearish, long term bullish. I think touching the power law line one more time would give a strong kick up to 12000 this time but bullish bias is keeping the price in a range. A break downwards first would indicate that is correct. A break up now would indicate a bearish trend for the long term.
Side note: one thing I haven't seen mentioned much is that the cost of mining and readiness to invest in blockchain businesses are hit by new regulation rumours, yes, but also by market uncertainty and fears of a global recession. These are new technologies, which during a recession would be the first in line to be cut from investment. So while price may tend upwards, volume would tend downwards. That would mean a drag on BTC's upward velocity. That said, halvening and the power law are strong cases against it and hedge fund managers putting even modest funds (a lot of volume, relatively speaking) on BTC during a recession would be enough to kickstart the next ATH and escape the gravity of a global recession... and that would be enough to render blockchain companies as attractive investments again.
Technicals aside, this indecision has a real chance of taking longer than usual to play out.
My position: short term bearish, long term bullish. I think touching the power law line one more time would give a strong kick up to 12000 this time but bullish bias is keeping the price in a range. A break downwards first would indicate that is correct. A break up now would indicate a bearish trend for the long term.
Side note: one thing I haven't seen mentioned much is that the cost of mining and readiness to invest in blockchain businesses are hit by new regulation rumours, yes, but also by market uncertainty and fears of a global recession. These are new technologies, which during a recession would be the first in line to be cut from investment. So while price may tend upwards, volume would tend downwards. That would mean a drag on BTC's upward velocity. That said, halvening and the power law are strong cases against it and hedge fund managers putting even modest funds (a lot of volume, relatively speaking) on BTC during a recession would be enough to kickstart the next ATH and escape the gravity of a global recession... and that would be enough to render blockchain companies as attractive investments again.
