I did a Tradingingview post in June on the Tether paper that showed Tether is being used on less than 1% of hours to prop up the price of BTCUSD and altcoins. I am linking that post and the research article is here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066
The analysis is pretty simple. We hit a low late June below 6k. We moved up to the falling log resistance line at 8.5K but topped with hidden bearish divergence. We just experienced a new low yesterday, and within this green daily candle we went up, had less than a 99% retracement, and we are going back up, for some reason. I have made my opinion clear that the global macro view is bearish due to quantitative tightening and crypto, completely absent any tether manipulation, should be going down.
On the other hand, we have another higher low, we have some clear places to set some stops, and we have that resistance line we can look at to see if there is any bearish divergence, hidden or otherwise, that would stop this uptrend. We still have about a 25-30% move if we double top and I want as much of that, leveraged as I can. And if the bears tear the upswing apart at the resistance line I will be there to short it back down. So far this trade looks pretty solid, with us only 4H into this 12H candle and already the volume is greater than the last 12H.
I certainly don't think we are going to have clear sailing to a double top. It is very possible we get stuck in the thicket of resistance we saw at 7K or we see some resistance at the resistance line below, or any other historic level of resistance between here and there. Not financial advice because this still seems like it is for those with a high risk appetite given how tight we are into the descending triangle
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The shorts are getting pretty high so I decided to look at the April pump. We might be chopping sideways for a week or two while the shorts continue to rise. We might even go a a bit lower than the low we just established at about 6160. This just re-enforces to me that this is an exceptionally high risk but high reward trade, in either direction. We still might match our low of $5,700 while the shorts rise.
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This graph hopefully emphasises why I think this potential long position might be developing over the next week to two weeks, because this looks like a fantastically bearish 2h chart. Please, look at my above comment and look at the swings that occured within each one of the blue shaded areas. Plan 2 or three steps ahead of the market but only act 1 step ahead of the market. This is something that is still very provisional.
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We have been falling in a widening channel which is a clear sign of the uncertainty facing BTCUSD over the last week. We see some bullish divergence has set in on the MACD and we are at the resistance of the channel. We have a chance to break out here and proceed impulsively upward. I have a order to go in above resistance to take advantage if that is the case. In the comments and updates to this post I made it clear that I expect the sideways action to be choppy and said it could last one or two weeks. One of main reasons I have an order placed to be taken into the price action is the 2D chart, which helps clear up a lot of the noise in the indicators. We see a potential reversal candle has already formed and a green candle is currently in the works. Indicator-wise we see the RSI is strengthening and the MACD is swinging upward, and the histogram of the Hull-MACD is becoming less negative.
Right now unless you are a trading jedi any trades within this widening channel are liable to give you whiplash. Long wicks as we struggle to get below or stay above 6k make setting stops difficult if you are opening new orders. Even trading for a breakout of the channel is a pretty risky trade but I have a pretty high risk appetite. The goal would be to go to log resistance line I have been going on so much about look at the charts to see if we do it with hidden bearish divergence. If we get to the line without hidden bearish divergence or get through it will go a long way to confirming a new uptrend.
I think we are merely in the retracement now of this move's final push down after finishing a 5 wave 'A' down. Similar count on Trade Devils both the bearish and bullish videos surprisingly as Sam has always maintained that we are in the start of a killer impulse until the last two/three days when the counts have been more or less torn apart. Best count I can see now for the whole move form the ATH is an A,B,C,D,E of which we 'could' now be heading into the B or the E, which as you say will meet resistance (I don't know whether there will be a breach of the $6800 again), in which case we could see a head a shoulders type pattern that comes down for the final, more violent push to lower lows. I'm out the market at the moment as there are too many possibilities on counts, but this impulse we've just seen does give the indication of a short term trend change. If this is a start of a retrace back up to $6500-7500 then I will await the sell signals and take the lift back down :-)
This_Guhy
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@GuyWallace, I hope my post make it clear that I expect this to be a messy week or two as this consolidates. Right now I am looking for a 5R trade, hoping this is a continuation pattern off of this pump. We might be retesting this current low or going lower.