botje11

Bitcoin making a bull flag against the resistance zone

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
So the wedge did play out and reached it's target, but nothing more than that. At the moment, it looks as if it doesn't want to drop . Have what looks like a bull flag on the left, bumping against the resistance, which is normally a sign that it wants to break it. However, when looking at the volume , that is not how a bull flag should be. Volume normally needs to drop during a flag formation , not stay at a steady level. So at this point, once again, i don't know what the short term direction will be. Unfortunately Bitcoin doesn't always stayed glued to my blue line :). A correction down would make most sense, as mentioned yesterday, but this market does whatever it wants.

So objectively this says chances up are bigger, because of the bull flag on the left. Just the volume that worries me a bit, saying that distribution is also an option the past days (meaning whales are shorting/selling here). That channel on the right seems to be legit, so think as long as that one doesn't break on the downside, no reason to think it will drop .

Another option to think of is, if it is distribution and we do break up, could be a fake stop hunt move. But that's usually when we see a quick short squeeze and low volume . So see that as a small warning in case we see a move like that.

11500ish is a resistance, 11200ish a support and a break of 11.000 will prob cause a retest of the 10600 and maybe lower even. On the upside, we have 12500 as a big one and 13000ish as maybe the key level for continuing the bull trend or the consolidation. If some things don't make sense, because i explained it past days in my channel.



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Previous analysis:

Comment: The breakout volume yesterday was decent, wasn't amazing but also not bad. At the moment it looks like a retest of former resistance, but i find it a bit weak so far. In the middle, it looks like a parabolic shape to the downside. Where we used to see them in a bullish version past weeks. So bulls need to break that curved line, otherwise it could mean big troubles. A drop back in that bull flag on the left, would be very bad. Would be a very weak sign.

Comment: So we have support around 11400/500. An important one around 11.000, after that we have the 10600ish
Comment: Short term, for the coming few hours, bull need to break 11700ish
Comment: Update 2 hours ago in my channel:
"The parabolic shape broke, so the short term potential panic is gone now. Now both directions are open again. 12.000 seems to be THE level now for the bulls to shake off the potential distribution"

For now, bigger picture, a drop to low 11K is still a realistic play and would even be better for the mid-term. Making a decent consolidation and making something that looks like a big inverse H&S. I won't repeat what i think of these H&S, but it's more the idea of it.
Short term, we can see the resistances in the middle. The challenges for the bulls on the short term.

The channel on the left is something to watch as well, it looks real with several touches. At the moment, we are still in the lower high zone, so unless the high breaks (think 12.000ish is enough already), the danger remains for the channel to break down. If we do break up, we can see where the resistance of the channel will be next.

Comment: Bitcoin needs to break the 11840/50 quickly, otherwise we could see a right shoulder form for a small H&S. Problem is, if this H&S plays out, that trend line on the left will break and then we could see a big drop happen.

If the 11850ish breaks, than it's prob just another bounce up from that trend line. So think important next hour or so

Comment: So far it, seems it was a small bear trap. Broke the trendline a bit and that small H&S, but got pumped again. But short term bearish pressure remains as long as dont break the 11950/12000

Comment: Now it seems to have turned into a triangle. So can break both ways. Lets hope, if we see a break, we get to see the real direction this time. A lot of fake moves past day

Comment: Giving the impression almost that it doesn't want to drop, changing one small bearish pattern into a bullish one and then turn that one again just to turn it back to a bullish one. Only to eventually make a dump.

Anyway, the triangle broke down, even though it's an ascending (so usually bullish). That's the main reason why i always say, it can go both ways. Seen it too many times going the other way, so for me it's always 50/50, unless i get other signs.

Problem now is, that trend line broke. I see 2 options for this:

1) This is just a drop to make a big correction/consolidation. If that is true, we could see that big bull flag play out on the left.
2) We move up a bit, but won't get above the 11800ish anymore, making the move up only a retest of former support and we make another wave down.

Actually a third option is, we get to see that right shoulder form around 11100/400, as i showed in a previous update. IMO also still a very likely option.

So for now, a key level is 11800ish on the upside. Downside is not so easy, because we have several support levels now. But the first one seems to be 10550



Comment: So far bouncing up quite fast, not really normal for just a retest. So almost starting to think it was just a mean shake out. 11800ish still stands as the level between just a retest or bullish version. All the levels above it mentioned earlier, also still stand.


Comment: So just a retest eventually and made quite the volume drop just no, but not huge to become full bear. That inverse H&S i mentioned earlier today is still in play, but don't like the way it dropped in a straight line. So at this point i am not giving that much value. Needs like half a day to form anyway, so no need to assume now that it's in play. At the moment just bounced up a little from yesterday's support around 11000/11100. On the right we can see a small bear flag in the making. Bulls needs a break of 11350ish to invalidate the bear flag AND they need to hold the 11.000.
As mentioned earlier, below 11k, 10.600ish is the next support.

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis

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Are you alive ?
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@Maped, Yes i am, i sometimes do posts in my public channel that i don't do here
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Nice work as always! Check out my view on Bitcoin and tell me what you think!
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Good idea, to me it looks like it could consolidate for a few more days to build a new floor which could act as strong support later on if the uptrend is resumed.

FWIW... last night I suddenly had another MONS (middle-of-the-night-thought)

Bitcoin vs. Gold - which will perform better?

(click on the chart to see the idea)
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I think we got inverse H&S inside descending broadening wedge
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Bitcoin formed a big bull flag / correction is over

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Nice analysis, this is what im currently seeing

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Cryptonite_trader Cryptonite_trader
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Understand Why BITCOIN-Bulls Have The Upper Hand - Next Stop 14k
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I'm seeing two battling head & shoulders's. What do you think, @botje11?

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