Eball8
Short

Bitcoin - See you at $5k

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Nothing is a surprise here. If you followed my last post, I showed 2 options here for Bitcoin . One was a bullish count, and one was bearish . And surely enough, we are filled with signs of bearishness. Please check it out if you haven't so you can get caught up on what you missed.

So, I keep going back and forth on the overall count, and I'm just going to stick with a 3-3-3-3-3 5th wave Ending diagonal sense we seem to be staying on the parameters of the descending wedge . We have a very strong support line here, and another hit on it could strike an awesome rally. So, I'm expecting a nice sharp ABC correction. We're currently on B (small uptrend), and awaiting for C (big downtrend) to start.

Bitcoin loves to hit .786 extensions for C waves, so if we get an estimate on the current projection for this B wave of around $7200, then we can create a fib extension from that point which can lead us to our target of 5k.

Get to know your Stoch RSI . It tells you a lot. It must always reset. And it shows the overall strength of any trend. So far, it's looking like this uptrend is already starting to lose strength. Where if we continue to rally another $200, the 12 hour may be overbought, and THAT is a bad sign for bulls.

Of course I'm going to expand on this more, show more data, include more live updates, as well as tips and tricks to help you all defeat Bitcoin . I've spent so much time on Bitcoin , I've been really getting it down on smaller timeframes. It becomes very very easy when you begin to develop an understanding of how the MACD , RSI and Stoch RSI all intertwine. Alright, lets get started!
Comment:

BOOM. First update already coming at you. So like I said before, a larger scale ABC could very well be on the way. And it seems like that is what's going on here. I will show another update on how I played this scenario with my short, and how I managed my risk. I didn't profit as much as I could have, BUT, it was the safest stop loss/breakeven you could make.

So, before I show that, I'll create a trade for you bulls that are bored out of your mind, and do a little indicator recap on the higher time frames.
Comment:

Here is a Long setup.

NOTE: Personally, I am ONLY entering this IF we get another drop for a C wave that is at least to the area of subwave A. IF we do NOT retrace, and continue UP, then I will NOT enter a long position. I will look to short. Guys, that white resistance line is hard core. It's highly likely to not pass that thing. So if you want to take the risk right now and go long, then be careful for unfavorable swings and small gains.

I'm just targeting a 1-1 or less for an extension on the C wave. The stop loss is right below the previous swing low. ONLY enter on bullish divergence in lower time frames.
Comment:

This is how I managed my risk on my previous short before the B wave started. I do not care that I didn't profit as much as I could have. What I care about here is protecting my capital. That should be your #1 goal in trading. Protect what is yours, and go add to your table. The goal is to put food on your table. Don't let anyone take your food away. And if they manage to do so, that should make you hungrier. Hungry lions don't wait for a dead gazelle to show up at their feet. They go get it.
Comment:

Lesson time! Reading this candle formation on the 30 minute timeframe!
Comment:

Okay, last thing before we wait on this C wave. I always check my indicators on ALL timeframes to get a gist on the overall trend. This helps immensely with wave counts.

These are some of the things that I look for between indicators. Confluence in indicators among MULTIPLE timeframes are what you can draw for STRONG and POWERFUL trends.
Comment:

When the market is sideways (unless you absolutely know the overall trend), don't make a trade. That is creating hope. Hope will let you down. Wait on confirmation. Here are two lines of confirmation. Right now, I'm going to take a nap. Good luck! I'll reach back with you all if I see anything news worthy. Everything else should be expected at the least.
Comment:

Things are looking good for the Short-Term bulls. Almost ready to enter this trade.
Comment:

Here is a close up view on what I think the proper count is.
Comment: ehhh maybe its breaking out now hahaha. Funky count, so be careful.
Comment: OHHH holy crap. LOL, sorry guys. But I somehow forgot that the B wave only gets 3 corrective waves. Always ABC. Never ABCDE. So yes, this is a breakout. 3 wave B wave is probably the most important corrective rule. That now validates my overall count. Good luck! See you at $7300ish!
Comment: Getting ready to short. Staying up for this one tonight. :D
Comment:

Bulls, hope you enjoyed that play! It was an amazing run, that will soon run out of juice. Bears, get ready to get these shorts out, I think we have one more contest at this resistance, and I'd expect rejection possibly before we hit $7500. We got higher than I thought, but this is good for the bears in terms of stretching out the price so that it has more to fall before we hit our big support line.
Comment:

I think we can get up to around $7500 before we drop due to the 30 min Stoch and MACD. Here is the 12 hour RSI. Notice the sloping resistance we have here, and that the last drop we had was bearish. Another drop is priming here.

Another note: Thank you guys for understanding that TA is trial and error, and a responsiveness of data that flows into the market. I see so many comments on other trader's post where they always say "TA isn't accurate, give up." I can't stress that enough. As day traders we move with the market. We won't be 100% accurate all the time, and just because we say something will go to a price point, does NOT mean that we automatically place our trade there. Just because it swings more than you thought in one direction, does NOT mean the overall destination of the analysis is wrong. Now, I have quite a bit of purely WRONG analysis. But that is what makes me human. And because I know how to manage my risk and don't purely rely on the initial analysis, I typically don't lose much money from those calls. I shrug it off and move to the next.

We look for signs that can help us make the best decisions possible. I hope you all are maturing as traders, as am I. I have only been trading for 6 months or so by now, and I'm still growing in the psychological phase of this art. Just like football, trading is 60% mental and 40% skill. You can have all the skill in the world, but if you are not mentally in it, then you won't perform well. Patience and lack of greed can be developed and learned from.

We only learn from this things by making those mistakes. The best traders look at losses as lessons. If things begin to fail, don't get desperate. If things go well, don't get greedy. Keep a level head and understand you don't control the market. You let the market come to you. Never panic. Adapt to the situation. Know that there are limitations. When we can fully develop these mentalities, they become a subconscious of ours that give us calmness when the market appears to go haywire. That is when intuition can be maximized, and an understanding of the price action gives you the exact understanding of what the people IN the market perceive it to be AT that moment in time.
Comment:

This could be the top here. Keep an eye open
Comment: Bears need to keep the price below $7365 before 8pm EST tonight to keep control in their hands.
Comment:

Bears failed to keep it below that price point. According to the Stoch on the 1 hour, I expect there to be another retest of the recent highs. This will give more confirmation on bearish divergence on the 1 hour. Don't be quick to enter a short here.
Comment: I am NOT in a short position right now. I expect there to be another retest of highs. Be patient.
Comment: Yeah... This is the drop hahah. Bitcoin is NOT following any signs by lower frame indicators. Far too overbought on higher time frames.
Comment:

Maybe. We could possible keep going down and may not even reach this yellow resistance zone.
Comment:

I will be entering this long position play. I think we see reversal at the $6600 area.
Comment: Unlikely to hit $6600, but still somewhat possible. Looking for entry at $6700
Comment: Another bear flag showing. Maybe we get an extended 5th? Be careful here.
Comment:

This is why I entered the trade. Along with other bullish divergences on lower timeframes. The 4 hour is showing a need to bullishly diverge. We only need to break $6835 to gain momentum. We are $25 away. Typically with wave 2 retraces, we can get it back up to .5 or .618 retrace. We haven't broken our most recent low aroun $6400 yet. So market psych says to ourselves "hey, we haven't broken our lowest low, AND we're at a fib line. Maybe this is still apart of a little uptrend. Let's try to buy back!" Indicators give it away a little. BUT, there is always that chance that we snap lower. We just need to continue to break resistances along the way.
Comment: Next logical support is $6400, IF $6600 breaks
Comment:

We should get another high here into this green box. But if we don't, then I'll add to the short if we break below the yellow line.
Comment:

Definitely a bear pennant forming. I expect us to try again somewhere around the white resistance and then a fall. But this would be the E wave, which typically fails. Just know we are on track for the fall.
Comment: I am comparing the consolidation lengths and alternative to this short wave 2. It would make sense for use to have another run up to $7000 before we drop. BUT, Bitcoin doesn't always make sense, so just keep an eye open on these. This is just an update for the short term, we are still heavily in the downtrend.
Comment:

I'm just updating for the sake of updating lol... The squeeze is real within this triangle. But our indicators show that something is about to happen.

Look at the squeeze in both bands of our Bollinger Bans. It is a signal of an increase in volatility that is approaching. It does NOT show in which direction. But we can use our other indicators that may give us a hint on which direction that may be. We have bearish divergence on the RSI, Stoch and MACD histogram (On the 1 hour chart). Now. It's important to notice that if you go into the smaller time frame (15 minutes), the candles close above this resistance, and it could possibly form a higher channel where we CAN hit $7k.

But, on most time frames I see this bearish pennant, and the last try at the resistance just confirmed it for me. And that's where I entered my short. I have a very tight stop loss at $6855 because if it does happen to shoot up there again, then we may carry up to $7k or higher. I play very tight games here. It's not always the best in high volatility markets, but I try to really get the best entry and use tight stop losses when I can. The only thing that concerns me is the 2 hour MACD. It's crossed over with no signs of bearish divergence.

Otherwise guys, I expect within the next 2-3 hours that we get a show. Bias is to the south. Lower timeframes show bearishness all around as well. But in the back of my head there is always the chance it can go against me, so I'm still trying to stay as neutral as possible here.
Comment: Bitcoin is so sideways right now that it's making some longer time frame indicators form bullish divergences. It is POSSIBLE that we bounce up and find ourselves move towards our downtrend resistance. I'm moving my stop loss up to a profitable area. But the BB indicate that somethings about to pop off soon.
Comment: I've moved my stop loss to $6670. I believe a breakout above that point we may begin to see a rally. We need to push down SOON.
Comment: Last thing before I go. I want you all to analyze the order book. Check how orders are stacked and see which side is forming pressure. I see sell orders and walls stacked. Seems to be very little buyers. If the sell walls are taken down, expect people to race to the books and buy. All it takes is one person to load up and the market moves with it.
Comment: There it is guys! It broke $6670 and rallied up. I want to see what it does here at $6900. If it rallies through that (which i think there’s a good chance), then i’ll have to start looking at alternate counts. Keep in mind that we never broke the bottom of our B wave. Which means that this could be a larger Flat ABC. That’s what i’d think, but first lets see how the $6900 resistance is handled. Peace.
Comment:

Goodmorning guys! I hope all of you are making it rain with your Bitcoin.

All Stoch RSI 1-4 hours are overbought with MACDs flattening or bearishly diverging. I want to see what BTC does with another push, maybe we get the push, maybe we don't. If we do, I can't see it going much higher than $7k if at all.
Short-term, we need to see a little correction, but I'm spotting higher time frames with crossovers on the MACD and the Histograms look like this uptrend may last longer than we think? Another update is coming with the 8 hour RSI and this massive resistance we've been facing.
Comment:

Here is the bearish trend line we find on the 8 hour with these repeated patterns showing before major drops.
Things to note:
-As we hit the top resistance, we try to touch it again but fail to reach it with the second attempt
- We currently have bullish divergence on the 8 hour RSI, but that could just be to reset indicators to drop lower
- The Second attempt on the Stoch never reaches overbought (on this trend)

Counterarguments:
- This test of this RSI trend-line has only happened at the peaks of each wave, not the B wave.
- The first drop was too low in comparison to other tests of this trend line, so similarities are a bit deviated from the past tests

Because of these counterarguments, we cannot assume that this trend continues. But, we can use it as a source of confluence of lower timeframes agree to another fall (which is what it looks like).

This was a bit more detailed than intended because I began to notice patterns as I went along. But nothing I've seen makes me bullish yet.

Another thing. I am thinking about creating a twitter account for this summer where I can leave these short-term updates for everyone. But, the only thing that I don't want is to get TOO big. Not saying that I will, but its not necessarily good for analysts to have a big audience. TA becomes self-cannibalizing when too many people get their hands on it. That's why TV analysts freaking suck. Many uneducated traders try to do what they do, and it alters the order books. The smart investors trade against those calls. And I wouldn't be surprised if the TV analysts trade against their own calls too LOL. I am considering it because these threads just get too long. But I like staying with a small audience. Twitter blows up with people asking for buy and sell calls 24/7 not knowing how to think for themselves. That's not what I'm here for. Idk, I just feel indifferent. Tell me what you all think.
Comment: Pretty confident on a fall now. I've entered a small short position. I will look to add to it if we climb up to $7k, and look to and when there are signs of strength towards a downtrend continuation. I would like to see today to be pretty neutral and even a bit more bullish (for the bears). We'd have to break $7100-7200 for me to get a bit more bullish.
Comment: Got our second pump and its looking pretty good. I want us to sit up here for a while longer and allow the indicators to reset. So far so good.
Comment:

Got bored and felt like making the chart look cool. Anyways, we're in a beautiful formation right now. An ascending wedge. I'd like to see another run up to confirm a bearish divergence on the 30 minute. We may not get it due to heavy resistance, though. Even though we are stalling at the .5 fib retrace, we may be able to reach the .618 with a wick. It's going to fall, and I've been adding to my short. If we go higher, the more I add. We break $6160 and I'll probably get nervous and take the loss. By then, I think our higher time frames would keep momentum. Bears need momentum to stay low. Bulls want to see a healthy correction here to reset lower timeframe indicators so that it can make bigger runs. It's just narrowing it's path now, making it harder to stay bullish.

We're also stopping at our main downtrend resistance. Unless we rampage 200 points over it, everything now is just a bull trap.
Comment:

Notice this nasty rejection candle forming on the 4 hour chart. Also notice the upper band on our BB holding as resistance.

If you aren't familiar with Bollinger Bands, they are formed from the standard deviation of the previous 20 candles (or however many you choose). Standard deviation is simply just the difference/distance from the average as a whole. Basically, how much the price deviates from its average price. My parameters are set for the 21 Simple moving average (average based on the past 21 candles) and 2 standard deviations. So I'm double majoring in business quantitative statistics (just started with this major), and I'm becoming more familiar with statistical analysis, and would hopefully include more of it into statistical analysis of historical prices using a regression analysis for time, EMA, and maybe even RSI variables.

But 1 standard deviation covers a range of 68.26% from the average (34.13% on each side). 2 standard deviations covers 95.44%, and 3 standard deviations cover 99.74%. For example, all this means is that with 2 standard deviations means that 95.44% of the time, the price will stay within this range. I use 2 standard deviations for the BB. So it means that there is a 95.44% chance that the price will stay within this range. However, because crypto is so volatile, those ranges are tested quite often, and the bands may expand very quickly. But we can use it as a tool to gauge our short-term price ranges. You can use 3 Standard deviations, to really gauge those ranges for extremities, but I like 2 standard deviations because it tends to be more reactive, AND i can catch buy/sell signs when the prices cross too far away from these bands. This is when you may hear people refer to the "alpha". It's referred to a confidence level. People will round up 2 standard deviations into a 95% confidence interval. Meaning that they are "95% confident that the price will end within this range." An alpha of 5% is that remaining percentage from the whole. If the price exits the 95% range, within alpha (5% extremity), then that would be considered a Type I error, and the ranges are then altered. Hopefully I didn't go over the heads there. I'm still learning this stuff in more detail, so the better I know it, the more easily I can teach it.

I always like to remind people that there are limits to everything, stats don't lie.
Comment:

Did the last post make sense? If so, check this out. This is 3 standard deviations on the 4 hour chart for the BB. Meaning there is a 99% confidence interval that we close within this upper band limit. That is right above $7100. Notice how the bands are squeezing. This means that a serious breakout is about to occur. We have indicators that are bearishly working against any uptrend right now. I'm literally putting my money down that we fall. But I want another small test to the upside before I add to my short.
Comment:

I wonder why people haven't been talking about this yellow line of resistance, formation of a symmetrical triangle with bearish sentiment.

This is kind of why I'd like to have a twitter account, because I just freaking like to talk about charts even when it may not be a necessary additive to my argument.

P.S. Aren't charts just beautiful?!

Life Advice: If a woman (or man, for my ladies) ever say to you the words "Let me see your charts," marry them.

If they say the words "Do you see the bullish divergence on RSI?".... Make babies.
Comment: This drop definitely seems a little funky. Breakeven-profitable stop losses in place.
Comment:

We are breaking some of these resistances with low volume. We have a weaker high on 30 min RSI, that's what I was waiting for. I'd like to see another try on lower time frame to get another weaker high, but we may not get it. We stayed within the green line (3rd deviation on 4 hour 21 SMA) by $30 or so.

Just waiting on it to fall so we can get more to work with.
Comment: Critical level for BTC to hold today is $6800. If it doesn't, then say hello to $6600.
Comment: 12 hour BB are now squeezing. The next couple days will be exciting.
Comment:

ALL I DO ALL DAY IS FIND PATTERNS IN THE CHARTS. You guys see these similarities building up? It's like the day before Christmas!! I keep finding clues to what I KNOW I'm going to get in the morning!

I just don't really KNOW know. I know, but I don't *italicize* *know*. You know?

So lets talk about pattern recognition here in this 12 hour chart and why BTC is likely to repeat the same sell off to deeper lengths at $5k.

First lets look at RSI. Notice the hidden bearish divergence. Hidden bearish divergence is when you get a lower high in price but a higher high on RSI, this happens as an indicator to a weak uptrend and a resetting of indicators before a major drop.

Next, Stoch RSI. You see the U shaped cup that occurs before another decent (wave 3)? Yup, me too.

Next, Elliot wave count. Both of these are ABC portions before the end of the corrective Y/Z pattern.

Next, Triangle. Both are within a symmetrical triangle with bearish sentiment (a triangle after a major drop - note: trade with sentiment. You can tell where symmetrical triangles will go based on the previous move. 9/10 triangles break to the trend).

Next, fibonacci extension. From wave A to B, wave C hit halfway between a .786 and a 1-1 extension. Guess where that is for this current downtrend? $5k!!

Next, Bollinger Bands. A squeeze on the 12 hour chart is an AMAZING sight. A sign of a BIG market move with HEAVY volatility. The higher the timeframe with a squeeze on the BB calls for bigger market moves.

Next, Extreme support line. See how its practically just wicks on these lines, but they continue to touch them? Its yearning for another touch :'D.

As a trader, we should try to stay as neutral as possible without much bias. BUT RIGHT NOW NO ONE CAN TELL ME WE ARENT GOING TO DROP SOON IM HYPE IM HYPE IM HYPE.
Comment: Stoch RSIs under 4 hours just reset, watch out here for another run.
Comment: 1 hour just hit another bearish divergence. I'd have to assume that this is the top for now and we're do for a pretty big drop here.
Comment:

I kind of like the trader I'm becoming. I'm protecting my capital and securing profit here and will wait on confirmation to see what to do next. It is moreso instinct, but I noticed a few things here that made me want to do so. I noticed that not only did we stop at our trend line support, but also our RSI support line. Our Stoch and MACD are showing signs of the ability to come down a bit more, but I feel that this short-term downtrend will hold out. I can us trying to retest the $7k area again, and I will look to go in on a short there. BUT, I am not confident enough to go into a long position. I will sit on the sidelines here and wait until I see what would give more more of a hick on what's going on here. When we get serious drops like that on the first wave and sit sideways for a minute, I usually become pretty skeptical on the depth of the run. The same thing happened a few days ago with the last drop, and I think it may be happening here. If you shorted at the top and don't care about these little bounces, then leaving it open as all good. I just don't like to see profits be wiped for being "too" patient. It's hard to find the happy medium there, but I don't mind missing out on a little more profit by waiting for more confirmation on another drop.
Comment:

Took the risk of taking a small short position based on 1 hour chart indicators. Forming a symmetrical triangle with bearish sentiment. Moved up my "add in" line to a break of $6600. We'll see how this goes.
Comment: So like 2 updates before, we are going to complete this triangle. We are still overbought on the 12 hour and the daily Stoch. I'm just letting my money chill in the market and adding to the short. We'll probably test $7000 and drop. All good vibes from BTC :)
Comment:
From 7400, it's near the exact same pattern from 9k.
And it's not the only fractal we can see.
I am not a specialist, but i see 3 fractal harmonic pattern. I have not check if they are totally valid. the bigger between the 2 top at 11.7k.
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lol I've come to look at life in terms of charts and apply market psychology to almost elements of life.

not sure if that's good or bad just yet.
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@ss44, I do that too hahahahaha
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Thanks for the Bollinger Bands info. Good stuff. I copied it for future reference.
Since I don't short the market (lack of a margin account), am looking for the next bounce to take some profit as the market works its' way down. Am thinking it will make a small correction around 6440 and a much larger correction around the 6K double bottom area. Any insight with your expert knowledge of EW? Thanks in advance.
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I think players of the both side are afraid of being trap into a whale game. Everybody is looking for a sign from the whales to give a direction, but they don't. Or are really well hidden.
Is it a major support or not ? a descending triangle or the base of a double bottom ?

If it break down, we should take care about any sign of accumulation from the whales.

( sorry if i make mistake in english, this is not my first language. I admit i am a beginner since only 7 months, and my opinion can be false. But maybe it reveal the opinion of a many beginners like me )
Reply
If it break down, we will see a descending triangle since 8k. Not sure it's valid.
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Eball8 AlvinM
@AlvinM, It would have to be the formation from $7.5k to be valid, but yes! if we touch $6500 again its done for.
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TV is good place for ideas
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Its much more convenient to follow TA here, the charts are interactive and readable, Twitter is a huge flow of spam and nonsense and very hard to follow. Dunno about others but i never find there the posts i am looking forward and get lost in all the other information. Here its very simple to find and follow the ones who offer legit TA. Ofc there are a bunch of morons who just draw arrows on charts but its therefore easier to avid those too. Thanks and pls keep it here.
Reply
Eball8 zerblunk
@zerblunk, thank you! I will keep that in mind.
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