BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Looks like an almost identical move here. Just now made a drop , close to the high just as we did a week ago. So the big question is going to be answered now. Are we going to move in the same way, are we going to touch the 11200/300 again? If so, it wil be very likely to see it break up again. If the 11.000 breaks, those chances will increase.

So based on this, if the market fails to break the 11.000ish, we could be testing the 10800ish again. It will most likely break if we test it again. If that one breaks, an H&S will get triggered with a target around 10500. This is a very important zone, the 10400/600, because if this one breaks, we will most likely drop below the 10K again with a target around 9800/9600. Even if this happens, it's still just a very small correction from the huge rally we had so far. So when volume won't be TOO big, it will at first just be a correction.

If we do break the 11200/300, i don't see a real target, but the 13kish level will probably be a big resistance zone . I mentioned a few times, that i don't see any real resistances the past 2 months, because they have no meaning during a parabolic move. I do however think the 13K will be a big one.

Just caught an algo pattern on bitcoin , started to show it 4 hours ago and kept updating it. To me, this shows where most of the volume in Bitcoin is coming from.

The weak breakout just now from the small bull flag , is a bit strange. Was a clean brekaout but instead of rally, distribution.
So, think this is something to watch now. The other one was just before the Sat dump
So this means, waiting for an hour or so to see how it plays out



If we see it really break now, volume increase while dropping a bit, think there is no way around it then


And some more updates in between of course :) posted it in my public channel just a few min before it dumped.




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Previous analysis:



Comment: New Litecoin analysis:

Comment: Could see a similar thing again, alts are much weaker this time than previous drops

Comment: Think best way to put it, below the first red, 75% short term bears in favor. Above it like 55/45 bulls and above the second red, 65/35 bulls. We can see the 11.000 is important now, 10800/750 as well (yesterday's higher low) and the key zone is still the 10400/600.

Bulls still holding it, still a basic bounce from a good support level. So we could still see it as a standard pullback.

Comment: New, educational/theory post on Bitcoin

Comment: Looks like we have a channel to follow now. We broke the 11.400 but didn't break the channel yet. So might see a retest of the 11250ish zone again.
Comment:
Comment: Wow, that was a very strange move. With that last dump btc did, all of a sudden several alts pumped instead of dumped. So seemed as if a lot of btc got exchanged for alts? Would this be the moment that it's shifting maybe between btc and alts?

Comment: The parabolic broke, sometimes it dumps right away, sometimes it does a desperate retest. Already getting a bit higher than it should for a normal retest, but there is a lot of fomo in the market. But the strange move from alts, doesn't make sense at this point.

However, i remember a few days ago (think Sat), at the exact high, alts were pumping only a few minutes before Bitcoin made that 900 point dump. So a ton of mixed signals now
Comment: Wow, just wow Bitcoin. So far it seems to be orchestrated since its following the fractals to the point almost. So no reason yet to change that view. Will try to make a new analysis today. For now, maybe this might still be a decent road map.

But make not mistake, there will come a moment where we will see a huge profit taking dump. This rally feels as if people who continue to add during consolidations. So average price rises as well because of that. So stops are getting higher as well. Just look back at the ATH, where those 3k/9k drops were happening, shaking out so many people.
When it will happen? Wish i could tell you. Will it happen at some point, 99.9999% sure ;)

As mentioned, the 13Kish zone has been my only resistance level i have seen since the parabolic move started. Small rejection so far. But it could turn out into a significant zone,at least short term



Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

Comment: Looks like volume is too high to follow the same move again. Looks like it might break up now. See it's already doing it as i am writing this. Had a big volume push down but buy pressure is the same as past days, unstoppable

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WOW amazing david really amazing fractal! youre my man!
just scrolled threw your comments..... i'm really sad to see that many people who post their own analysis here just to profit from your fame. SHAME ON YOU (people who post their own analysis in davids posts)
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Nailed it again! 10800/11200 strong support for due correction

Since i decided to publish my ideas 2 weeks ago to help others because i thought its the time for btc and i am really impressed for how accurate they are one after another.
And now like i said many times before that we are in strong wave 3 since from 7800 this wave should take a break between 12/12500
Now btc hit 12900
I also published another idea for classic bearish div on daily which is going to confirm the break and retrace for a bout a week range

But i still calling for the strong support according to my previous idea between 10600/10800 and 11000/11200 area is going to be the area from where btc should not break it after we hit 12/12500 and this is very important to resume climbing towards previous ATH at least for now and if it didn't happen expect the blood

Just in case we got the reverse I expect the behavior for next wave to be similar to the last one from 7800 or even sharper.

Hope this help

Original idea:
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Bitcoin completely ignored the key resistance at $11,500. Things to take into account for future price movements:

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Yes, the uptrend is very strong, we trade according to the trend.
But if Bitcoin unfolds, the fall will also be very strong.
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Hey guys flash back to my analysis I called 12k level first, here we are almost there.

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@weslad, We are there.
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I think a lot of confidence has been lost in Alts, which would explain why they are so far behind relative to how things were last bull run. I believe only the strong will survive, such as ETH, LTC, XRP, BCH, ADA, and few others. People are wiser this time around. The fact that US customers are getting cut off from trading on certain exchanges also contributes to the altcoin demise.
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Fricken Love your analysis brother!
We are up 48% on BTC since last long signal
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