Bitcoin Daily Update (day 286)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will
return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “Everything is about as bearish as it can get except for the daily candle.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8865 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 | Short BTC:USD from $3,288.5

Patterns: Bear trend | Hyperwave phase 7
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,130 | R: $3,235
BTCUSDSHORTS: Strong bounce. Will it create a new ATH or are we ready for a big squeeze?
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0356%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Has started to diverge from the trendline but still fully bearish
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Fully bearish
Overall trend: Fully bearish
Volume: Didn’t see much volume through in terms of selling volume however less volume is to be expected over the weekend.
Candlestick analysis: Doji
Ichimoku Cloud: C clamp is resolving itself
TD’ Sequential: Today was a r3 that briefly traded below the r2.
Visible Range: Will high volume node at $3,150 provide bounce
Price action: 24h: -0.7% | 2w: -20.2% | 1m: -46.9%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band = $2,920
Trendline: Being tested
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Showing strong signs of bullish reversal. 33 MA has flattened and is primed for a golden cross with the 9 MA. Could this provide the support needed to breakthrough the trendline?
Parabolic SAR: at $3,915
RSI: Stuck below 30 on daily. Just broke down 30 on weekly.
Stochastic: Weekly and daily are very bearish
Last Day Rule: Need to break through $3,500 for setup day

Summary: There is a ton of support from $3,000 - $3,200 and it is starting to look like the bearish momentum is waning. Today was a doji that barely broke down yesterday’s low and it failed to close below.

Support will be coming from: the 200 week MA, the high volume node on the Visible Range Volume Profile, the daily TD’ Sequential is on a Combo 13 and the weekly is on an aggressive 13.

Furthermore the BTCUSDSHORTS’ are at all time high levels and historically this is the area that we would expect to see a short squeeze. That is confirmed by the funding rates being very expensive for short sellers.

We are also testing the 3 week bear trendline for resistance while the 1 hour chart is showing strong signs of a bullish reversal, which tells me that a breakthrough the trendline is more likely than not over the next 24 hours.

Due to the factors listed above I have amended my stop loss on my BTC short position. I couldn’t decide whether or not to move it to breakeven or to leave it at $3,551. In those circumstances I strongly prefer doing both. In this case I set a break even stop loss for 50% of my position at $3,288.5 and I decreased the stop at $3,551 by 50%. Now if we get a fake breakout of the trendline that triggers my breakeven stop then I will still have half of my position.