Technicals
Bitcoin has made a clear break and retest of the downward trend line that has defined the 6 month bear market since 26 Jun 2019.
With today's movement, it has also made a clear break upward of the Daily 200MA.
A break of 9279 (0.382 retrace) completes a Cup and Handle pattern beginning 8 Nov 2019, and establishes a much clearer bullish trend.
Bottom is in
The triple bottom formation in the low 6000s -- which happened to also test the 4-year long logarithmic upward trend line as well as the flash bottom marked on 17 May 2019 --
strongly suggest that the current price floor is firmly established around 6380, and 6 month consolidation has ended.
This also coincides with the estimated global average price of mining a bitcoin (~6300).
The case for a bull market
With the halving coming up in May, we can expect miners to make a push for prices to at least double the current average, indicating targets of around 12600.
The cup and handle formation gives a target of 12178, while the 0.786 retrace at 12313 could act as a magnet to extend the price further.
Although we face some headwinds in the last downward trendline established by the past two major peaks (2017 and 2019),
the 0.5 retrace at 10165 can be expected to act as a strong support once we cross above it.
9279 is an important level to watch over the coming days.
Bitcoin has made a clear break and retest of the downward trend line that has defined the 6 month bear market since 26 Jun 2019.
With today's movement, it has also made a clear break upward of the Daily 200MA.
A break of 9279 (0.382 retrace) completes a Cup and Handle pattern beginning 8 Nov 2019, and establishes a much clearer bullish trend.
Bottom is in
The triple bottom formation in the low 6000s -- which happened to also test the 4-year long logarithmic upward trend line as well as the flash bottom marked on 17 May 2019 --
strongly suggest that the current price floor is firmly established around 6380, and 6 month consolidation has ended.
This also coincides with the estimated global average price of mining a bitcoin (~6300).
The case for a bull market
With the halving coming up in May, we can expect miners to make a push for prices to at least double the current average, indicating targets of around 12600.
The cup and handle formation gives a target of 12178, while the 0.786 retrace at 12313 could act as a magnet to extend the price further.
Although we face some headwinds in the last downward trendline established by the past two major peaks (2017 and 2019),
the 0.5 retrace at 10165 can be expected to act as a strong support once we cross above it.
9279 is an important level to watch over the coming days.
So far so good!
Strong and clear break of 9279, followed by a clear retest and bounce off 9279 turning it into support now.
Longs below 9279 can confidently set stops just below this new support, and any dip here is a good entry opportunity.
Let the gains begin!