My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: Outlined three key areas of to keep an eye on. / Sidelines
Horizontal support and resistance: Testing $6,495 for support | Resistance at $6,640
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appear to have created a higher low
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Failed to make crossover, now price is back below each by about 0.1%
50 & 128 MA’s: Back below 50 MA, closing below would be very significant | 128: -3.99%
Volume: Still waiting for spike. Have been paying close to ETH’ which recently had two weeks with record high buying and last week supported record high sell .
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
analysis: Dojis at $6,600 indicates waning momentum from the bulls.
Cloud: The cloud has been all over the place these last couple days. I have checked it on different exchanges to confirm there wasn’t a glitch. Now the daily cloud is back at $6,800 - $6,900. We have re entered 12h cloud which is very thick. 4h escaped the cloud yesterday, but just had TK’ cross. Showing strong support at $6,450.
TD’ Sequential: Bouncing off 1h R9. 4h R4. 12h price flip. Daily price flipping. Weekly trying to make price flip.
Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above the point of control.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.87% | 24h: -0.27% | 1w: -0.25% (what an exciting week) | 2w: +3.69% | 1m: -6.42%
Bands: Briefly fell below MA on daily band, watching for a close below that area. Finding resistance from weekly MA which is right in line with top of . Tightest weekly bands have been since Nov 2016.
Trendline: Connect September 8 to September 17th (ice line for ). Connect September 19th to September 25th & connect top of September 22nd to Oct 1st (creates triangle inside ).
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320
On Balance Volume: Still showing a bull div’ on weekly, however it is resolving itself. Failed to turn resistance into support and broke down . Now we will see if it can create a higher low.
ADX: is at support
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
(30 setting): D: $8.31 | W: 49.03
Stoch: Looks like weekly rejected recross. Daily made re cross.
Summary: In yesterday’s post I pointed out a pattern on the 4h chart. Last candle broke down the neck line and closed below. The current candle is retesting the neck line for resistance. Normally that would be a very good spot to enter, however I have already been chopped out twice in this range and I intend to wait for further confirmation.
In today’s chart I have drawn a on the and provided a new neckline to watch out for. If we reject the retest on the 4h chart and then go on to confirm the same pattern on the then it could be a good time to start building a position.
The best fit lines for the past 6 months could be drawn by using curved lines instead of a linear . When looking at it from that view the current weekly candle is in the crosshairs, which indicates that a decisive move should be made sometime this week.
I am setting alerts at $6,400 and $6,800 and will be focusing on traditional markets until BTC decides what it wants to do next. It can drive a person crazy watching short time frame charts while we are getting chopped around like this and I think it is a much better idea to focus time/energy on something else. Once my price alerts trigger I will drop everything and go back to watching the hourly chart like a hawk to look for an entry.