Bitcoin Daily Update (day 214)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: Outlined three key areas of support and resistance to keep an eye on. / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle / h&s
Horizontal support and resistance: Testing $6,495 for support | Resistance at $6,640
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appear to have created a higher low
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Failed to make bullish crossover, now price is back below each by about 0.1%
50 & 128 MA’s: Back below 50 MA, closing below would be very significant | 128: -3.99%
Volume: Still waiting for volume spike. Have been paying close to ETH’ which recently had two weeks with record high buying volume and last week supported record high sell volume .
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Dojis at $6,600 indicates waning momentum from the bulls.
Ichimoku Cloud: The cloud has been all over the place these last couple days. I have checked it on different exchanges to confirm there wasn’t a glitch. Now the daily cloud is back at $6,800 - $6,900. We have re entered 12h cloud which is very thick. 4h escaped the cloud yesterday, but just had bearish TK’ cross. Showing strong support at $6,450.
TD’ Sequential: Bouncing off 1h R9. 4h R4. 12h price flip. Daily price flipping. Weekly trying to make bullish price flip.
Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above the point of control.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.87% | 24h: -0.27% | 1w: -0.25% (what an exciting week) | 2w: +3.69% | 1m: -6.42%
Bollinger Bands: Briefly fell below MA on daily band, watching for a close below that area. Finding resistance from weekly MA which is right in line with top of descending triangle . Tightest weekly bands have been since Nov 2016.
Trendline: Connect September 8 to September 17th (ice line for h&s ). Connect September 19th to September 25th & connect top of September 22nd to Oct 1st (creates triangle inside descending triangle ).
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320
On Balance Volume: Still showing a bull div’ on weekly, however it is resolving itself. Failed to turn resistance into support and broke down trendline . Now we will see if it can create a higher low.
ADX: ADX is at support
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily.
RSI (30 setting): D: $8.31 | W: 49.03
Stoch: Looks like weekly rejected bullish recross. Daily made bearish re cross.

Summary: In yesterday’s post I pointed out a head and shoulders pattern on the 4h chart. Last candle broke down the neck line and closed below. The current candle is retesting the neck line for resistance. Normally that would be a very good spot to enter, however I have already been chopped out twice in this range and I intend to wait for further confirmation.

In today’s chart I have drawn a head and shoulders on the daily chart and provided a new neckline to watch out for. If we reject the retest on the 4h chart and then go on to confirm the same pattern on the daily chart then it could be a good time to start building a position.

The best fit lines for the past 6 months could be drawn by using curved lines instead of a linear descending triangle . When looking at it from that view the current weekly candle is in the crosshairs, which indicates that a decisive move should be made sometime this week.

I am setting alerts at $6,400 and $6,800 and will be focusing on traditional markets until BTC decides what it wants to do next. It can drive a person crazy watching short time frame charts while we are getting chopped around like this and I think it is a much better idea to focus time/energy on something else. Once my price alerts trigger I will drop everything and go back to watching the hourly chart like a hawk to look for an entry.
Nice... thanks for sharing!
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+1 Reply
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