Hedgehog_king
Short

The big shake is coming?

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Monthly closed at-last, and to me it looks bearish .. but I already showed why on monthly I see same bearish (Correction) patterns like from previous parabolic run:


Today I wanted to zoom in to weekly and show you why I see same bearish (Correction) patterns:
1. Just like in any market, when fear holding their assets they are panicking, and this is why usually crashes are much much stronger then rises... as you can see I drew the falling momentum, first the yellow lines which formed a descending triangle (The are between blue and ground yellow is area of interest which usually acts as strong support by previous candles), then came the fear (red line) which broke below the support levels, then came the panic sells (crush with last candle that used the support level as strong resist)...
2. Bearish candles are much more active (And I bet that the next one is going to be bigger then the last green one)..
3. Many indicators show bearish (if we check weekly/monthly), but I wanted to focus on my favorite 3:
* OBV (I usually call it "buying power volume" as some of you noticed, because with this I can confirm if the buyers have enough power to hold higher levels) -
- What is interesting is that many times when OBV goes below last higher highs it usually falls harder because bulls losing momentum (fuel), so just like we passed below higher high on the previous parabolic run, we now seem to pass below the higher high from the previous parabolic run - means we gonna fall harder towards the last OBV support.
- Accumulation/distribution - Just like on previous bull run we can see that distribution is taking stronger effect (usually happens after we see that the accumulation is distorted at top, just like before we can see the same going on now)
- Macd - As I mentioned before I don't like to see these "over sold" indicators that every one are talking about - on small TFs, I love to watch these on bigger TFs.... and guess what we see? exactly, reversal, EXACTLY THE SAME as on the previous parabolic run....

So tell me? on bigger picture, what do you guys see?
* PS1: I don't say that BTC is dead, I just say that it is going through a normal correction like we had on every bull run ever.... I'm still a 100k-1m BTC vision-er like always.. but as always I do say that FA and SA sux nowdays (Just like when I said they were when we got to 14-20k last time)....
* PS2: As I always say, TA's are just probabilities out of endless possibilities, but as we are human beings we can sometimes be wrong, why? because markets work on emotions, and emotions change fast, I see bearish , but it doesn't mean that it is absolute... let's see where we go :)

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Hedgehog King!

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Trade active:
Bearish flag, again low buying power...
Going bellow 9411 means we are going towards the 9100...
So my short signal is:
#short#currentprice9573
Enter: 9736-9390
SL: 9785
TP: 9320, 9220, 9120, 9100, 9000, 8300, 7800, 7500, 7000 (and 10% more for if we go lower)
Comment: Well in the end bulls did manage to gather volume as I mentioned in my Telegram group (forgot to update it here:
https://ibb.co/K9JcNhJ

But now it looks like the bears do the same.. I will short here 9750, with sl at 9850..
Comment: "I will short here 9750, with sl at 9850.." - This is not a signal!.

Also update on the signal: #short#currentprice9573
failed, price now is 9758, we hit sl at 9785 (tiny lose)
Trade active:
Trade active: New active signal: #short#currentprice#9766
enter: anywhere between 9845-9745
sl: 9888
tp: 9632 (30%), 9515, 9460, 9120, 9000, 8800, 8500, 8300
Comment: * Guys, risk management please, enter with 1-5% of portfolio, with not more then x1-x25 leverage.. dont be greedy!
Comment: Also, I wanted to update about yestarday and give overview of today/yestarday activity:

* On my last update (yeatarday, in my Telegram group) about the next 2 4h TF closing candles, I mentioned that the volume buying power is rising, and that I see divergence for strong break up/down, I posted it 1:15 hours before the first closing candle, and 5:15 hours before the second, and said that if we continue rise up in volume then we might break up, I posted it before I went to sleep this is why I said that the signal is still active but I also recommended to close it for better position (I hope you guys did, I went to sleep so I stayd with it, but since the SL was pretty much close then the lose was very tiny), so in the end 1st candle closed with rising volume at 9640, the volume led the next one to close at 9771, and exactly as mentioned that it will stop around 9845+/+ (we stopped exactly at 9844 :P xd)... anyway, this means we lost last signal but also confirmed that we didn't have enough buying power (yet) to hold this new level, which is why I gave a new signal a few moments ago...

* As I mentioned in the picture that I again go short due to:
1. Not enough volume on 4h.
2. We managed to pass in price the last high since the last crush, but we dont have enough buying power to hold this level.
3. We got stopped right in the line where heavy resistance persists from current parabolic run, and all the way from the last one..
4. We are testing the 15 min cloud, and due to the rise in activity of bears atm we are most likely to break this cloud down, which will couse us to go back to the 1h cloud which is around the 9600 price, also 4h cloud above us is very strong resistance (from last few weeks of rejections) and way too strong for this king of volume to supress it, thus we need to fall to gather more volume buying power...

* If we see that buying power rises above the green line (in the OBV indicator), then I will cancel this current signal as well.. so stay tight, we might see some action on next 2 4h TF candles.. mood in market can easily change, im going out now and wont be able to follow for a few hours, but the SL should protect you with not big lose, the profit vs lose here is much stronger from my perspective.
Trade active: The more we rise up, the stronger is going to be the fall, we are getting closer to the top edge of the descending triangle guys, this is even stronger sign for me to short it out, now will be another attempt to short as we are below even steonger resistances (4h cloud, and between the sma200-ma50 zone)... Im going to short it down here yet again guys..

* signal: #short#currentprice#9766
hit the sl (lose 1.25%)

as I showed before (and will show again later today), the mid term picture and the bigger picture are bearish in this entire descending triangle...

* new signal: #short#currentprice#9892
enter: 9840-10135...
sl: 10213 (Risk: 3%)
tps: will update later.
dont put more then 1-5% from portfolio, and not more then 1x-25x leverage.
Comment:
Hmmmmmm, looks good enough?
lets wait and see...
Comment: Breaking below 10470 will bring us to 10360, and below that to 10050 again, and below that back to 9800...
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