Daily cloud resistance - most important obstetrical?
After the last events which I myself didn't expect (Even though there were very strong signs for it from different directions, as well from traders I trust which put me in my place ^_^, as well from my own most valuable indicator that I love the most which I decided to ignore), and learned the mistakes.. we can continue and trade the pattern.
* Overall lookup:
1. TA:
- Movement averages - There are very strong PA bullish divergences (Especially if you look at MAs, EMAs, SMAs (Such as 12e and 33s) as most of them getting golden crosses which are V bullish) - Bullish.
- Fib' level mid term: if we check since the begining of the current parabolic run, then we almost corrected to 0.5' levels, from my speculation we need to reset this parabolic run (just like we did on the last one) and to do so we need to fall to around 1'-0.7 fib' levels for a healthy bull run to happen, as this is just my speculation, then 0.5' fib' still might be enough, but from my side I really prefer to see another correction towards the 8.3 and even better towards the 4-7.2k... - Natural.
- Fib' level short term: On this last rise and since we entered the parabolic run, both Fib's show that we have ways to go and correct now towards where their 0.6' fib level meet which is 9800-10050 levels - Temp' bearish (Correction) which from my perspective is a must if we want to continue this last bull rise.
- Symmetrical triangle (Usually a continuation of any trend, but also a very strong reversal)- we broke it downwards, but lost momentum - thus this triangle was invalid (Some would argue that we didn't break it, as the floor is lower then what others see, but this changes from trader to trader and does not fit my own style) - Invalid.
- Descending triangle (Usually a continuation of a bear market, but also a very strong reversal on bull market) - Until we won't break this triangle which I personally believe effects a lot of the market emotions (Yes retail sellers/buyers), I'm not convinced yet that we are on a bull market, some would say that other PA divergences have much more impact then patterns, but I must disagree as the market works with emotions, and patterns also change emotions) - Bearish.
- Clouds short term - 1h we supressed, but I think if we are going to correct this move then we gonna enter into it and touch the bottom floor, which will lead us to touch above the 4h cloud - Temp' bearish (Correction), If we enter the 4h cloud, it will break the 1h cloud, which might turn the 4h cloud into a strong resistance again..
- Clouds Mid' term - we touched exactly the bottom of the daily cloud, this is the final step to supress the descending triangle, entering this cloud means we broke all obsticles, and if we create a bullish pattern above it means that we are finally confirmed to be in another bull run, I believe this will play out as a very strong resistance - Bearish.
- Other oscillators and indicators:
- Stoch and RSI - on short term (daily/4h) - they need to cool off, thus we gonna have this small correction... on mid term (weekly) - RSI look like needs a lot more to correct which the stoch looks like is ready
for the bull run, as stoch is better then RSI from my perspective then to me it looks like - Bullish... on longer term if we check monthly, then both are at the top, but we also might not have
enough data, and yet I do think that we should at-least have small correction to cool down, thus - Bearish.
- Accum/Dist - I like to see this as indicator as confirmation for when there is uncertinty, when accumulation has too much distortion and a stop to bull run, then usually distribution taking effect just like we
have seen on last parabolic run - Bearish.
- MACD - looks to me very nutral on all the smaller TFs, but! the weekly shows that we might have a reversal - Bearish.
- OBV - Although we confirmed the bullish movements for the 1h-4h (Every move up supressed the last low levels) we are still creating more lower lows on daily with still lots of room to drop, and also the buying
power is still at zone levels that fit the 7400-8200 at 4h - Bearish.
*** Some would say that most of the info here isn't relevant, but it fits my trading style, I might be wrong with my overview here but in the end we are all here in this space to learn and get better, if we enter a bull run by breaking the triangle, I will change my style as it will prove to me that my style isn't that good and that I need to change some perspective and give new priorities. but even if we break the triangle and go bullish, it doesn't matter if you know how to manage your portfolios well, and especially if you have at-least 2 different portfolios:
1. Long term investment portfolio - where you keep laddering BTCs as you don't care which price it is atm, because you directing it for 35-50k, and then 80-120k, and then even to 1m...
2. Trading portfolio - where you manage safe portfolio with tiny risks of 1-5% (Or better 1-3%), and stick to TPs, and have a plan to change your trading focus depending on the situation (such as breaking this triangle).
2. SA:
- Also SA is greatly increasing (Due to the cumming Bakkt launch at 23/Sep, and also ETF decision on 29/Sep (Which if will be bad, then will bring a lot of bad sentimental with it) - very bullish.
- We rose in fear/greed indicators from 5 to 28 and now 41, it means that we are very neutral now, we can go both ways - neutral.
- The media is way too excited for me lately, I don't like it, usually when most of the media talks good it usually means you should sell, but as media is very manipulative for both directions, I prefer to stay: neutral.
3. FA:
- Everyone knows how I talk about Fundamentals of BTC, it didn't change. Bitcoin technology isn't ready to bring mass adaption (even though news of institutions pushing it), LN was a failure (Amount of nodes dropping, and less activity in overall, still a shop owner can't use BTCs...), sure lots of institutions talk about aduption, and having many ideas, but these won't appear nor will make big effect this year and I think not even in next 2-3 years... not until BTC is matures in technology (In all: speed, amount of transactions, simplicity for the little poor shop owner)...
- So some would ask me then if these fundamentals have bearish signs on BTC, well this is a big argument, I do think it has big impact against institutions and aduption, but Bitcoin is still both:
1. Medium of exchange - which is a very future like perspective, this might start really bringing mass adaption in between 5-10 years, but some say we won't even see that in our generation (Which I tend to agree with such speculation as well).
2. Store of value/scares - due to the upcoming halving, I do believe that we will see ATH next year (Can easily get to 25-50k), this will bring big excitement, and lots of 'wanabi rich' people will enter the field, BTC transactions will get again overloaded, and the correction (Or more like a bigger crush then the last parabolic run) will come right after.. but eventually BTC will always progress and always grow in price, I personally think that this year was good enough for BTC, but I also think that we are still in an 'echo bubble', I don't see ATH and I do see this correction towards the 4-8.2k before the next real parabolic bull run can begin again... I don't mind if I'm wrong on this speculation, I base it on a lot of variables as well, but if we break the triangle up and start the bull run already this year, I'll be more then happy as well...
*** To conclude my overall thoughts:
Short term (few days) we gonna have small correction to around 10050..
Mid term (14/Sep - 26/Oct) we are going to break this triangle up/down, if up then bull run returned, if down then it will take us long while to go back, but this is good for us! and the best from my perspective.
Long term, keep investing in BTC, you won't regreat it ;), as I'm sure we will see 100k-1m one day ;)..
Hope you had a nice (long) read, cheers.
****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
* If you like what I do, and want to see more then don't forget to push that "follow" and "like".
* Also if you want live time signals and learn with the community then you are more then welcome to join here: t.me/joinchat/AAAAAEdUerTNmmk-6ARsBw
* If you want to appreciate my work with spare BTCs then you are welcome to send them to: bc1q8kzn0x8j4dmws00ntuhyma8p4c9jwyj0gzxua9
Cheers, love <3
Hedgehog King!
****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
* Overall lookup:
1. TA:
- Movement averages - There are very strong PA bullish divergences (Especially if you look at MAs, EMAs, SMAs (Such as 12e and 33s) as most of them getting golden crosses which are V bullish) - Bullish.
- Fib' level mid term: if we check since the begining of the current parabolic run, then we almost corrected to 0.5' levels, from my speculation we need to reset this parabolic run (just like we did on the last one) and to do so we need to fall to around 1'-0.7 fib' levels for a healthy bull run to happen, as this is just my speculation, then 0.5' fib' still might be enough, but from my side I really prefer to see another correction towards the 8.3 and even better towards the 4-7.2k... - Natural.
- Fib' level short term: On this last rise and since we entered the parabolic run, both Fib's show that we have ways to go and correct now towards where their 0.6' fib level meet which is 9800-10050 levels - Temp' bearish (Correction) which from my perspective is a must if we want to continue this last bull rise.
- Symmetrical triangle (Usually a continuation of any trend, but also a very strong reversal)- we broke it downwards, but lost momentum - thus this triangle was invalid (Some would argue that we didn't break it, as the floor is lower then what others see, but this changes from trader to trader and does not fit my own style) - Invalid.
- Descending triangle (Usually a continuation of a bear market, but also a very strong reversal on bull market) - Until we won't break this triangle which I personally believe effects a lot of the market emotions (Yes retail sellers/buyers), I'm not convinced yet that we are on a bull market, some would say that other PA divergences have much more impact then patterns, but I must disagree as the market works with emotions, and patterns also change emotions) - Bearish.
- Clouds short term - 1h we supressed, but I think if we are going to correct this move then we gonna enter into it and touch the bottom floor, which will lead us to touch above the 4h cloud - Temp' bearish (Correction), If we enter the 4h cloud, it will break the 1h cloud, which might turn the 4h cloud into a strong resistance again..
- Clouds Mid' term - we touched exactly the bottom of the daily cloud, this is the final step to supress the descending triangle, entering this cloud means we broke all obsticles, and if we create a bullish pattern above it means that we are finally confirmed to be in another bull run, I believe this will play out as a very strong resistance - Bearish.
- Other oscillators and indicators:
- Stoch and RSI - on short term (daily/4h) - they need to cool off, thus we gonna have this small correction... on mid term (weekly) - RSI look like needs a lot more to correct which the stoch looks like is ready
for the bull run, as stoch is better then RSI from my perspective then to me it looks like - Bullish... on longer term if we check monthly, then both are at the top, but we also might not have
enough data, and yet I do think that we should at-least have small correction to cool down, thus - Bearish.
- Accum/Dist - I like to see this as indicator as confirmation for when there is uncertinty, when accumulation has too much distortion and a stop to bull run, then usually distribution taking effect just like we
have seen on last parabolic run - Bearish.
- MACD - looks to me very nutral on all the smaller TFs, but! the weekly shows that we might have a reversal - Bearish.
- OBV - Although we confirmed the bullish movements for the 1h-4h (Every move up supressed the last low levels) we are still creating more lower lows on daily with still lots of room to drop, and also the buying
power is still at zone levels that fit the 7400-8200 at 4h - Bearish.
*** Some would say that most of the info here isn't relevant, but it fits my trading style, I might be wrong with my overview here but in the end we are all here in this space to learn and get better, if we enter a bull run by breaking the triangle, I will change my style as it will prove to me that my style isn't that good and that I need to change some perspective and give new priorities. but even if we break the triangle and go bullish, it doesn't matter if you know how to manage your portfolios well, and especially if you have at-least 2 different portfolios:
1. Long term investment portfolio - where you keep laddering BTCs as you don't care which price it is atm, because you directing it for 35-50k, and then 80-120k, and then even to 1m...
2. Trading portfolio - where you manage safe portfolio with tiny risks of 1-5% (Or better 1-3%), and stick to TPs, and have a plan to change your trading focus depending on the situation (such as breaking this triangle).
2. SA:
- Also SA is greatly increasing (Due to the cumming Bakkt launch at 23/Sep, and also ETF decision on 29/Sep (Which if will be bad, then will bring a lot of bad sentimental with it) - very bullish.
- We rose in fear/greed indicators from 5 to 28 and now 41, it means that we are very neutral now, we can go both ways - neutral.
- The media is way too excited for me lately, I don't like it, usually when most of the media talks good it usually means you should sell, but as media is very manipulative for both directions, I prefer to stay: neutral.
3. FA:
- Everyone knows how I talk about Fundamentals of BTC, it didn't change. Bitcoin technology isn't ready to bring mass adaption (even though news of institutions pushing it), LN was a failure (Amount of nodes dropping, and less activity in overall, still a shop owner can't use BTCs...), sure lots of institutions talk about aduption, and having many ideas, but these won't appear nor will make big effect this year and I think not even in next 2-3 years... not until BTC is matures in technology (In all: speed, amount of transactions, simplicity for the little poor shop owner)...
- So some would ask me then if these fundamentals have bearish signs on BTC, well this is a big argument, I do think it has big impact against institutions and aduption, but Bitcoin is still both:
1. Medium of exchange - which is a very future like perspective, this might start really bringing mass adaption in between 5-10 years, but some say we won't even see that in our generation (Which I tend to agree with such speculation as well).
2. Store of value/scares - due to the upcoming halving, I do believe that we will see ATH next year (Can easily get to 25-50k), this will bring big excitement, and lots of 'wanabi rich' people will enter the field, BTC transactions will get again overloaded, and the correction (Or more like a bigger crush then the last parabolic run) will come right after.. but eventually BTC will always progress and always grow in price, I personally think that this year was good enough for BTC, but I also think that we are still in an 'echo bubble', I don't see ATH and I do see this correction towards the 4-8.2k before the next real parabolic bull run can begin again... I don't mind if I'm wrong on this speculation, I base it on a lot of variables as well, but if we break the triangle up and start the bull run already this year, I'll be more then happy as well...
*** To conclude my overall thoughts:
Short term (few days) we gonna have small correction to around 10050..
Mid term (14/Sep - 26/Oct) we are going to break this triangle up/down, if up then bull run returned, if down then it will take us long while to go back, but this is good for us! and the best from my perspective.
Long term, keep investing in BTC, you won't regreat it ;), as I'm sure we will see 100k-1m one day ;)..
Hope you had a nice (long) read, cheers.
****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
* If you like what I do, and want to see more then don't forget to push that "follow" and "like".
* Also if you want live time signals and learn with the community then you are more then welcome to join here: t.me/joinchat/AAAAAEdUerTNmmk-6ARsBw
* If you want to appreciate my work with spare BTCs then you are welcome to send them to: bc1q8kzn0x8j4dmws00ntuhyma8p4c9jwyj0gzxua9
Cheers, love <3
Hedgehog King!
****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
Trade active:
As we havnt created the hangman candle that I expected to form on daily (thus the wait for closing candle was so important), we didnt confirm next move. anything possible by tommorow-weekly closing candle atm.. we are very close to the top edge if the descending triangle guys, if we pass 11200 then we are targeting for bullish targets... but for now, I still want to provide a signal, as we entering the 1h cloud and as the volume buying power got much much lower on hourly (and 4h and daily), I expect that if we go below 10500, then we will see as minimum as the bottom of the cloud which means the first target is 10265.
so the new signal:
#currentprice#10552
entrance: 10490
sl: 10775 (risk range 2.7%)
TPs: 10275 (50% of the position), 10175, 10070, 9850.
dont forget portfolio management guys, dont enter with more then 1-3%, and no leverage. as this is a risky playout.
so the new signal:
#currentprice#10552
entrance: 10490
sl: 10775 (risk range 2.7%)
TPs: 10275 (50% of the position), 10175, 10070, 9850.
dont forget portfolio management guys, dont enter with more then 1-3%, and no leverage. as this is a risky playout.
Order cancelled:
We didnt manage to get to 10490.. and bounced away from the cloud, this signal #currentprice#10552 is off guys..
Looks like the bulls are strong on the move atm, we are going up..
I will be waiting again for a closing candle today to make a decision.
Looks like the bulls are strong on the move atm, we are going up..
I will be waiting again for a closing candle today to make a decision.
Comment:
Sorry guys, Im a bit away today.. so cant update much, but tommorow I will give the updates... we can still get to 11k (as bulls hands still on top), but also can still go to 8300 (as Im more sure will happen)...
but be ready for one of the following scalps:
- #long#currentprice10364
entrance: 10360-10454
sl: 10270 (risk 0.8-1.8%)
tps: 10560 (50%), 10630, 10780, 11100, leave 10% if go higher..
trading portfolio risk: 1-5%.
- #short#currentprice10364
entrance: 10268
sl: 10468 (risk 1.947%)
tps: 10170, 10050 (50%), 9870, 9680, 9440, 9100, leave last 10% for if we go lower..
trading portfolio risk: 1-5%.
more likely we go with a leg up, I cant stay awake to see the closing candle today..
This was a nice tiny correction (healthy for the bulls).. lets see how we close daily, very critical to stay above 10150 and below 10650 (breaking one of these today/tommorow will make even bigger candle)
but be ready for one of the following scalps:
- #long#currentprice10364
entrance: 10360-10454
sl: 10270 (risk 0.8-1.8%)
tps: 10560 (50%), 10630, 10780, 11100, leave 10% if go higher..
trading portfolio risk: 1-5%.
- #short#currentprice10364
entrance: 10268
sl: 10468 (risk 1.947%)
tps: 10170, 10050 (50%), 9870, 9680, 9440, 9100, leave last 10% for if we go lower..
trading portfolio risk: 1-5%.
more likely we go with a leg up, I cant stay awake to see the closing candle today..
This was a nice tiny correction (healthy for the bulls).. lets see how we close daily, very critical to stay above 10150 and below 10650 (breaking one of these today/tommorow will make even bigger candle)
Comment:
I also have a V big warning... I will update it later today/tommorow.. I think that my new sentiment proves that we are going to crush towards the 4-7.3k very soon, and I can prove why TA market was manipulation of bots since Aug 29 and that something didnt feel natural to me all this time. I found something very big guys.. this could be my biggest speculation ever...
Comment:
Update signal: #long#currentprice10365:
Price now 10504
TPs hit: 50% at 10560.
Next TPs: 10630 (Another 20%), 10780, 11100, leave 10% if go higher...
SL: Move to profit at 10367 or higher...
Update signal: #short#currentprice10364:
Didn't enter as we continued with the long, thus canceled...
Price now 10504
TPs hit: 50% at 10560.
Next TPs: 10630 (Another 20%), 10780, 11100, leave 10% if go higher...
SL: Move to profit at 10367 or higher...
Update signal: #short#currentprice10364:
Didn't enter as we continued with the long, thus canceled...
Comment:
I'm gonna check up on market now and will update my thoughts/TA within next 4 hours....
Also I will update my 'big warning' which I was talking about, this is yet a speculation, but it means you guys should stay alert for if this happens...
Sorry guys I was away from answering, had RL stuff to take care of, but when I leave a signal all you need to do is just follow it ;) until either we hit all TPs, or hit the SL ;)
When I'm not here to update the SL (After first TP hits), you guys should alway move TP to profits level (As minimum as to entrance level)...
Also I will update my 'big warning' which I was talking about, this is yet a speculation, but it means you guys should stay alert for if this happens...
Sorry guys I was away from answering, had RL stuff to take care of, but when I leave a signal all you need to do is just follow it ;) until either we hit all TPs, or hit the SL ;)
When I'm not here to update the SL (After first TP hits), you guys should alway move TP to profits level (As minimum as to entrance level)...
Trade closed: stop reached:
Update signal: #long#currentprice10365:
Price now 10331
TPs hit: 50% at 10560.
SL hit in profits at: 10463 (I forgot to update here, did update in the TG)..
Good profits again ;)
Price now 10331
TPs hit: 50% at 10560.
SL hit in profits at: 10463 (I forgot to update here, did update in the TG)..
Good profits again ;)
Such a boring day... the bulls are holding well, but I do think that they are exchausted still...