BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis/position: “The price of Bitcoin' is currently at a very crucial crossroads. Can it find support above $6,350 and go on to create a higher high? I remain confident that won’t happen, mainly due to the volume .” / Short ETH:USD from $208.45 and short BTC from $6,354
Patterns: Back below bear trend line and looks like it will retest phase 2 of the hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,371 ( trendline retest) | S: $6,339 (bottom of the body from today’s candle)
BTCUSDSHORTS: At support with reversal dojis after the red 9
Funding Rates: Predicted to be 0.0379% in 7 hours, longs paying shorts (0.01% now)
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price below MA, with MA crossing medium and long MAs = full entry signaled
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Still above long MA, watch for it to follow with a bearish cross to provide confirmation
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Should act as strong resistance
Overall trend: Bearish with full entry signaled
Volume: Selling volume from today and yesterday exceed buying volume on breakout
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis: Bottom of today’s body is currently support. Watch for price to violate that at any time to confirm continuation of move
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud has thinned out but is also showing resistance at the trend line
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 2 below a red 1 and the current candle is a red 3.
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789.
Price action: 24h: -1.57% | 2w: -0.74% | 1m: -3.54%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band is in line with phase 2 trendline
Trendline: Back below bear trend and testing it for resistance. Expecting phase 2 hyperwave to get retested
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207
RSI: Back in bearish territory below 50
Stochastic: Daily sell signal did a great job

Summary: Bitcoin' is back below the bear trend line after breaking out on low volume and selling off on higher volume . BTCUSDSHORTS are at support and coming off a recent red 9. Funding rates are getting very expensive for longs on Bitmex, projected in 8 hours is 0.0387% while the most common in 0.01%. Consensio signaled a full entry with today's close based on my guidelines of price < all MA's and 3 crossing 8 and 30. Today was also a daily red 2 below a red 1. The green trendline is how I am drawing my phase 2 line and I think the action outlined above puts it in serious danger of breaking down. The 1 hour chart is approaching the long MA which is angled down sharply while price retests trendline for resistance.

I have scaled into large short positions on BTC’. Funnily enough this is the first time in 2018 that I can remember ETH’ being in a strong position technically that BTC’. ETH’ is still above it’s medium term MA and has not seen the short may making any bearish crossovers as of yet. I do not take this to mean that ETH’ will have stronger support over the coming days and I strongly expect it will continue to fall harder and faster than BTC’ (if we do breakdown). I think this is simply due to over exuberance in alts during the last week. As BTC’ was rallying the alts were rallying harder.

I actually take this as another sign that this isn’t the bottom. When alts found their last bottom it was when BTC’ was rallying hard and people were FOMOing out of alts and into BTC’. Alts continued to crash for weeks (months?) while BTC was making all time highs.

Therefore I have scaled into a small ETH’ short with intentions to add when the MA crossovers signal entries.
EMASAR Indicator is available for purchase at http://www.sawcruhteez.com

Comments

"I actually take this as another sign that this isn’t the bottom. When alts found their last bottom it was when BTC’ was rallying hard and people were FOMOing out of alts and into BTC’. Alts continued to crash for weeks (months?) while BTC 0.38% was making all time highs."

are you talking about november/december 2017?
+1 Reply
Sawcruhteez moviestar
@moviestar, That's correct
Reply
Great post!! Keep the posts rolling :)
+1 Reply
Sawcruhteez BenWright21
@BenWright21, My pleasure, thanks for the kind words!
Reply
BenWright21 Sawcruhteez
@Sawcruhteez, No Problem :)
Reply
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