Anyway, the reason why I wasn't expecting a breakout is because the moving averages were and still are converging in this area above the price action. Why these particular averages? They are the most relevant for BTC daily charting imho:
- The 200 daily MA has been a significant support in the past and is broken very rarely by Bitcoin . When it does BTC generally stays underneath for a long time and struggles to break back out.
- Throughout the history of BTC , the 100 MA has almost always had a positive gradient (upward slope). Now it points down distinctly for the first time since 2014.
- The lack of momentum is confirmed by rejection at the 20 MA. Wow that was brutal.
- The so-called death cross (200 MA x 50 MA) is still on track will happen if BTC stays below the 200 MA. Unless breakout then this week.
Right now I expect the price to continue moving down this week unless the 20 MA is broken. Even then I will not see that as a sign until the 200 daily MA is broken.
Again with the growth channels. Red and green are net negative and net positive growth respectively. Pretty obvious that after positive comes negative, right? If you look at the previous two green channels, you'll see price paints four distinct levels in each case. The bullrun from 2015 to 2017 also shows four levels but the overall curve is much smoother and the levels less angular and obvious. Why? Because of adoption.
If BTC has finished a cycle of positive growth and I think it might have, then we will break the channel support and enter the lower red channel, where the price will slowly decline until reaching a bottom sometime mid 2019. Afterwards it will be a slow increase until reaching support on the bottom of the green channel in 2021/22.
It will be a slow and agonizing process made worse by silly day traders trying to eek 200 dollars out of every twist and turn.
The silver lining? Other cryptocurrencies are at different points along their cycles. It may be that we see some kind of decoupling this year along with the death of all those BTC-only shit/scam coins on Bittrex/Binance etc.
NOTE: As the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has been model for the growth cycles of the other coins. It is not sure what it will do now, it may break this current super cycle and form a new higher one meaning this scenario is invalid. If the channel support breaks then this scenario will unfold.
If the Soros rumor has any truth to it, then he must be behind it. Yet at the same time a UK MSM which has been very anti-crypto and is extremely pro-Soros, defending him at every opportunity, even allowing him to write editorials, publishes an anti-Bitcoin article, it's first crypto article in a month. Something weird is going on behind the scenes. Make no mistake this is a critical point for Bitcoin, failure to break the 20 MA means we will test the previous bottom and fail imho. It would be the best point for market makers, if they exist, to try and break Bitcoin out, yet activity is minimal. They might try to pump BTC right at the 20 MA or they might do nothing.
Looking at the altcoins I think that we have not yet bottomed (which is still a contrarian view imo). So I will stick to my analysis such that it is.
lol, well assuming "They" really do exist then they did just that this morning. I'm still not super bullish. The volume came all in one hour and I hate that, but there were a lot of shorts to burn through lol
Still I'll post one last bearish fractal as food for thought. The price seems to be consolidating around 7.6 and could dip lower, but according to bull logic would be a good place to enter. I am waiting for confirmation. If this is really the end of the bear phase then I don't have to buy the bottom, otherwise I 'll stand by my original plan until confirmation.
BEARISH FRACTAL: look how the spikes match, could just be coincidence