We are in a Miner Capitulation
The 1 and 2 month Hash Rates have crossed. We are in a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation.
The only question now is, how deep will we go.
My analysis found that great returns (with low risk) are possible on buying recovery. However, even higher returns are possible when buying during capitulation, but you also risk bigger downdraws. This is why I am an advocate of buying on Hash Rate recovery, because we don't know how deep a capitulation will go before the fact.
The other thing to remember is that the Hash Ribbons is simply a criterion for highlighting stagnation in Hash Rate growth, it doesn’t always lead to big drops (like in the cases you highlight). But even when there are no big drops (such as in those 3 cases) you still have a great buying opportunity on Hash Rate recovery.
You could develop a stricter criterion, to only highlight deep capitulations, but then you also run the risk of riding through the majority of the miner capitulations. You likely wouldn’t be able to classify it until it is at its worst or until it is over. A stricter definition of capitulation likely also wouldn’t be able to identify or confirm recovery until after the fact, and would therefore miss the wonderful buying opportunities that capitulations (and “mini capitulations”) offer.
I found the 1- and 2-month Hash Rate crossovers to be a good benchmark for classifying capitulation. Some will be big, some will be small. But it’s a clear-cut ruleset, strips out the ambiguity in the moment and highlights great times to buy Bitcoin.