I interpret this channel as Bitcoin's stable / organic growth path. Everything above the channel is a speculative bubble, not caused by fundamentals, but by speculation alone. Everything underneath the channel is crypto doom - of course we can go below, but that period I interpret as recession. Hence stable growth separates Boom & Bust.
Here is the full channel dating back to 2011:
Compare out current position to 2015 when we re-entered the channel. I see a "sideways" approach to the channel bottom taking us into Q4 / 2019. The green shaded zone represents the likely sideways channel. This is a trading zone of 4900 to 7700. It is not necessary that we test either extreme in my opinion. We lack that much is clear.
The middle of the channel is 6200 this seems like a good average level for the period. I expect oscillation about this point.
In addition, check 2015 again. It is also not necessary that we touch the channel bottom, we can do that later on as we climb the channel.
fractally it appears we have completed the correction, now it is a battle between bear and bull forces for final control of the market and overall future of crypto. do we survive or not (bull or bear)
But at the moment I think the market probably won't start a new bull trend until the ETF is approved and/or any breakthrough in tech i.e. increasing scalability to the thousands or even 1 million.
About scalability, the Ethereum guys say with Plasma they could achieve 1 million tx per sec. Well Joseph Poon who designed the Lightning network is collaborating with Vitalik on that so interesting combination... also theoretically Lightning can already handle such loads, just that the network needs physical development still. I will try and find out but I believe it is growing exponentially. Would be good to do some charts there with number of nodes etc ;)
ETFs... I don't know much about tbh. I know people think futures have a negative effect on the market but that's because they are generally launched at the top of a market. ETFs well that's something else to check, it would be worth looking at gold there maybe
With ETFs it'll allow more players to enter the market. So basically investors invest in say a hedge fund company and they in turn buy Bitcoins...this basically means more investment. Theres a few "experts" saying if thats approved BTC can go to $50k by year end...
However the real fit is probably a / (1 - b * exp(c * (x - x0))), it's a logistic function (s-curve). It consists of an exponential phase followed by a logarithmic phase/. I wasn't able to perform a regression on the data - was really annoyed. Interesting is when you log the logistic curve, the s-shape turns into the Bitcoin trend imho. I will try post that later cos I can't find a chart on google