fiatdaemon

BTC | Waiting for that last gasp

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Exciting times

BTC broke the psychological resistance, but without consistency, and I'm in the opinion that it can not be sustained for the long term

I'm not sure where the top will be, so I based the potential run on the last bull run that happened in late 2017 while taking into account
that there are bigger players in the market now. I've kept in mind that the fundamentals are telling me that institutions are FOMOing
into the market along with the rest of the retail investors which could be one of the primary driving factors.

Assuming we see anywhere between a 2x to 4x move, with the 2x being shown to remain conservative,
I've outlined potential areas where the next bear run could take over while expecting a future rebound
that would create a higher breakout based on a 2 - 4 year timeline

Based on historical data, we can safely assume that a proper correction will have anywhere between a 30% to 80% drop from the top.
We have yet to see this, so I'm waiting for that last gasp in which I'll be buying incrementally on the way down as momentum fades

This run is a long term game and could last anywhere from the end of the month as well as into next spring,
but I do remain in the opinion that BTC will correct at some point returning to a higher low in which the next
accumulation phase will begin and it will most likely be the last time we see anything below the $20k range

Right now is the time to be taking profits, and observing, while waiting for those small corrective dips on the way up to
build on those returns. So far, the market seems persistent on setting a new ATH and that is yet to be seen

Regardless, I expect to see some interesting market moves in either direction before we return to the $12k - $20k range
where new support will take place and bigger players will plan to buy up while the rest of the market cools down

So far, the 20 week and 50 week are still showing numbers in the teens and we will have to test these areas at some point
on the lower bound.

In conclusion, I think overall that BTCs future is bright and that in the long term it will do more than just compete
with national currencies and international regulatory bodies.
Comment: The higher we go, the riskier the buy becomes, so I color coded the support and resistance lines based on yellow as a cautionary long range, orange as a high risk long range or a short term shorting range, and red as shorting range.

The potential resistance lines on the bear run during a corrective dip would create a descending triangle and are labeled as a red as a cautionary shorting range, yellow as a low risk shorting range, and green as a safe shorting range. This only holds if we begin seeing the formation of a descending triangle. The angle is based on the angle of the previous bear run, so it could be a sharper drop or a more gradual one.

The dotted line represents the current support line relative from the base support line, the dashed line represents the base support line for the current breakout trend, and the solid line represents the base trend line where BTC has shown relatively consistent long term support.

All metrics indicate BTC is over bought and over valued according the previous data. Even considering fundamentals, the fundamentals suggest that there is still a good amount of supply in circulation. Even with limited supply not being able to meet current demand. Eventually, demand will fade temporarily until there is a real shortage which will eventually cause demand to rise again and in turn causing the price to rise again as well.

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