$BTC - #Bitcoin-Daily-Update #6 (extensive)- Day Trader Explains

Hello Lads and Ladies,

Welcome back to TJ's TA sessions.- The Daily BTC Update

What happened in the last 48h?
After taking a couple of days off, it seemed to be exactly the wring time to do so. Our Stop Loss at 3400 got hit and we went straight for the dive towards 3200$. The guys in our private group, knew what to do and longed with a high leverage the 3250 to 3200 range. Literally caught the whole nice pump that we had right after re-testing 3200$. Apart from that the price got rejected at our previously mentioned support and resistance line at 3550. We are seeing now again the nice predictive Friday-Night-Dumps, followed by the low liquidity weekend.
Since we have almost none volume, yet still having a slightly decreasing price and the only volume that we see is rather from pumping 50$ and dropping 50$ again.
What I see is a really big indecision in the marked. A lot of dojis, a lack of volume and a really choppy pattern on the charts.
Let's find out what happened behind the scenes and what we can expect pretty soon.

Most important S/R right now?
2939 3030 3100 3160 3200 3250 3333 3434 3550 3666 3730 3820 3950 4077 4123 4169 4382 4658

Gained lost %?
Since the opening of the new daily, we wicked down -1.70%, but gained 3.80%

MarketCap?
Total MarektCap is 108 Billion - lost 13 -
Of wich BTC is 59 Billion - lost 4 -
With a Dominance of 54.7%
- Today's dump seems to have downed more alt coins than just Bitcoin, Alts are bleeding. -

Volatility?
The 30d avg Volatility is 5.6%
- +0.07 -

Shorts/Longs?
Shorts - 42.7k (SUPER-danger-zone)
Longs - 27.9k (solid)
- S +7 / L +1.0 -

Funding?
The last 3 funding rates added -> -0.45%
- -0.40 -> gained insanely a lot -

Momentum?
The TJ-Momentum is still red but very low. As soon as we see it green, it will be a rising momentum and it will be a bullish sign for Bitcoin.

Volume?
We are STILL waiting for a big volume breakout, which would be above the orange average line. We had two nice dumping days with high volume which sky rocketed the shorts but the price didn't drop much comparably. We WILL see a big volume breakout very very soon. This will either bring us to 4.4k or to the 3k -2.9k range.

TJ-MF/StochRSI levels?
TJ-MoneyFlow -We are still below the 0 line. Yet the money Flow is heading down. This is again not favouring the direction that we are going towards right now. Once more shoring us a divergence.
StochRSI (got a cross-down and a red cross)
K(blue) - 69.5
D(orange) - 70

Divergences?
Right now I am not seeing any divergences apart from the volume and Money Flow not supporting the trend. This is showing me that we are loosing steem off the downtrend, at least for now. Yet, this supports a possible uptrend.

Market Structure?
Right now I am seeing a very clear bullish falling wedge over the course of the last two weeks. We went from a steep weekly falling wedge into a pretty normal and decent falling wedge that we are in right now. The volume to it also plays out so it actually bullish, yet the patter itself is something what I do not like that much yet, which leaves us with the very las bullish hope of a monthly falling wedge towards the end of the year, keeping the support yet, taking the 4.4k wicks as our reference points for the resistance.

Overall?
We are definitely in a bear market and definitely have to fight the very strong bearish sentiment in the market. Moreover, we see a lot of dumps and breaking horizontal supports and a negative momentum, this is incentivising a lot of people to open leveraged short positions and endanger their capital with bad risk management and poor trade plans.
This is the reason why we are seeing the shorts being at their all time high, which should be normal in a bear market. Calling for a short squeeze is actually dangerous and most of the people do not have anything behind it saying. They hope, but do not understand it. Let us understand it, what is happening right now. We have seen basically a 50% correction within the last month. This has a momentum to it and keeps pushing the price downwards, a lot of people are shorting and actually starting to short at this range. Why? because they did not have a plan and are coming into trades that are supposedly going with a certain trend. Completely leaving out the factor that every trend HAS ALWAYS a correction to it, it has a relief to it, especially when it is over-heated. This was the reason why I cashed out 50% of my btc holdings at 18k. When you learn how to read a momentum of a trend and see certain indications of a near trend reversal, there is almost nothing than a good trade set up is left for you to make the $$$. What I am seeing right now is certainly a stage in the middle of it. You can compare it to the BTC price going to 14k dumping to 10k and then continuing to 20k. This is exactly the set-up that I am seeing right now. We HAVE a very strong downtrend but are almost over-due for a retracement and a correction of this trend. The comparable 14k is our 3.2k to 2.9k range.
Here is what I am seeing. A third test of the downtrend support of the falling wedge with a possible wick to the 3.2 - 2.9k range. Should we bounce there and achieve a close above 3434$ we will most certainly see the bounce and relief that we are talking about for weeks now. This will be a 50% bounce of the lowest price, w which should lead us to the target of either 4.4k or 4.6k. Since we have been rejected already at 4.4k, this would be very bearish and we would continue our journey back to yearly lows. A close above 4.6k would then let us to re-evaluate the situation and look for how strong the momentum actually is.
Nevertheless, we have the opportunity to not hold the mentioned 3.2k - 2.9k range and dump almost straight through to 1.8k THIS YEAR.

What do we want?
We want a close above 3434$ for being bullish. We also want a dip down to 3.2k and below to fill up some nice long orders. We want to stay with our daily closes inside of the falling wedge.

Position?
Honestly, I would suggest simply setting up longs From 3250 to 2900 and let them fill up. Anyone who has really big guts and is feeling the short, stagger shorts to the resistance and short towards 3.2k, if 3.2k holds, reverse it, if it doesn't, see to reverse it at 3055. I myself am doing exactly that right now, since I believe that the test of the support will happen and we might have a small dip below, nevertheless, I am taking more than 50% out at 3.205 and reversing at 3.125.


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Cheers, TJ