BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Hello everyone,

Since late November, BTC has been chopping around in this range and consolidating. We have flipped the weekly open to support and are marching towards the highs at $7,500 - $7,700. I have been long-biased since we reclaimed mid range, and my current trade plan is displayed on screen for 2.5R. Entry is roughly $7,150.

Volatility has been decreasing for the past week, with price increasing which leads me to believe the path of least resistance is upwards. Historically, when volatility hits the 110-130 region, it leads to a rapid increase in price.

Comparing that to our moving averages, the 200EMA sits nicely between 7.5 and 7.6k which is likely to be an area of considerable profit taking. A rejection there fits the bearish case of a lower high and continuation downward.

However, we are now witnessing golden crossovers on the 2h/4h and soon to be 6h causing me to lean bullish with a target of $7,500 minimum. What happens around the 200EMA (redline) will likely be what dictates the near term trend.

If you recall one of my old posts, I am still anticipating a move up $8,000+ however how long it may take before BTC making a final correction lower to make new lows <6.3k.

For now, this looks like a bullish price action setting up for a macro bearish retest. Carefully laddering shorts between 7.6-8.2k still seems viable given our choppiness and overall bearish trend for the entire year of 2019. However, I would not blindly short 7.6k as I believe we may experience a significant short squeeze.

Only upon clear rejection of 7.6-7.7k would I flip to short-biased. Until then, I am long and strong. A loss of the weekly open is a clear bearish signal, and would invalidate my bullish thesis.

I will be updating this one as it progresses. Good luck trading!


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