vjsharma89
Long

BTC - Looks like we have a great setup for a temp uptrend here.

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Morning all!
What's happening?

We broke out of the falling wedge yesterday and are now sitting around 3500 resistance.
3540 to be precise.
Consolidation below a resistance is usually a weak sign whereas consolidation above usually leads to higher highs eventually.
Daily has closed as a nice fat green.
The direction is still not clear.
LONGs and SHORTs are both really high. Either of them will get squeezed out soon imo .
Bull Flag has started to form on 4hrly timeframe.
If flag breaks out and we continue to trend upwards, next target would be 3800 for BTC . For that a close above 3600 is required. - High probability
If flag breaks down, I can see some consolidation in 3400 area heading back towards 2900 target eventually. - Less Probable in short term
Going to 3800 or 4300 doesn't mean, BTC will not test 2900. But for now, the downtrend has been broken and bulls have a great opportunity to set the path to 4400-4800
It would test 2900 eventually. That's just how this works.

What happened with previous trade?
I was regularly updating my previous post on BTC .
Made a bunch of Short Scalps until my SL at 3261 got hit.
Took profits multiple times.
In situation like these when there is lot of indecisiveness and a channel is formed, I adjust my SL to switch my trade from LONG to SHORT or vice versa.
SL entered me into a tiny LONG that I closed earlier today.
Not in any trades at the moment.
Looking for one though.

My sentiment
Short Term - Bullish
Long Term - Bearish

How am I going to trade?
There are multiple ways to trade the current scenario. I'm gonna go with the safest and least profitable one. Usually the safest trade is the least profitable trade.
1. Trade the Bull Flag - Medium Risk
Wait for BTC to form a channel and enter at into a LONG position with a SL just under the channel.
2. Trade the break out/break down - Less Risk
Wait for a break out in either direction and enter the trade at pink lines.
3. Wait for a confirmation on either direction - Safest
Unfortunately, I don't like to trade based on a flag. I don't mind missing out on a trade that I'm unsure of rather than entering a trade that can easily run in unfavorable direction.
BTC is in a No Trade Zone for me atm.

What are my indicators saying?
1hr FOMO is red
2hr/4hr and Daily FOMO are green
To my surprise FOMO didn't budge during that 3260-3180 channel. It stayed green and soon after that we pumped. Has been green since 3160.
FOMO Momentum Scalper Daily has turned green for the first time since 6300.
FOMO Momentum Scalper 4hrly is nicely uptrending.
So, if indicators are to believed, we should be heading up.
Comment: Flirting with this support right now.
If we break it. The flag theory will be invalidated.
Comment: Have just entered a small SHORT.
Will close under 3400
Trade active
Comment: If we fall under HTL 60min

This is what I'm expecting
Consolidation just under 3400
And uppy
Comment: After invalidating the bull flag, we broke down and came back up.
Broke out towards 3700 a bit earlier.
The top pink line is where I entered. 3615 is the entry.
Looking to TP around 3800
My personal Discord ID : VJ - BITMEX #3208
DM to get access to FOMO Indicator
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