Bitcoin Daily Update (day 259)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis: “The first consolidation after a move is often redistribution...The 4h chart is forming a bear pennant with a $4,350 target. That will confirm with a close below the previous candle ($5,410 on USD exchanges)”
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758

Patterns: 4h bear pennant
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,457 | R: $5,560
BTCUSDSHORTS: Very, very surprised that the shorts are still pulling back
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0097%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Today’s candle retested and resisted
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Looks like it will be retested at ~$5,890
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Starting to turn down significantly
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Volume has dwindled down to almost nothing during the consolidation from the last ~36 hours. Expecting a move soon.
FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th’) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: Today closed a doji. Watch for the top or bottom of the candle to be violated.
Ichimoku Cloud: I expect the 1h cloud to hold as resistance (also in line with 9 day MA)
TD’ Sequential: Current candle is a r2. If it breaks down below the prior at any point then that would provide a good entry
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: +0.2% | 2w: -13.13% | 1m: -14.35%
Bollinger Bands: Watching for price to stick to bottom of the daily band
Trendline:
Daily Trend: chop
Fractals: After breaking all of the down fractals in 2018 we found support above the next one down ($5,122)
RSI: All time low on daily. Watching closely for divergence
Stochastic: Daily made bearish re cross

Summary: We failed to confirm the bear pennant with a close below (4h chart) and now we are attempting to break out of the top. If that happens then I expect it to be nothing more than a trap / shakeout before the breakdown.

I am watching the horizontals from today’s doji candle. If we breakdown below it, at any point, then that would be a red 2 below a red 1 and would provide a low risk entry. I am also watching $5,550 for horizontal resistance.

If we rally through that area then I will be expecting resistance from the 9 day MA and the 34 MA on the 4h chart. Those are waiting at $5,800 - $5,880. Anywhere above $5,800 will be a very low risk / high reward shorting opportunity.

If not in a position then I would be watching for a bounce to that area or or a breakdown below today’s candle.