May have drawn the top trend line a bit wrong. However, when I drew the line, I was averaging in other trend lines that I forgot to add and would have muddled up the message.
The IDEA was that we are still heading toward the pointed end of the triangle.. and that the explosive escape from the triangle was still contained. Which has played out just as I thought.
It just goes to show.. all those people yelling TO THE MOON... were premature. Lesson? Be careful of anyone shouting Bitcoin to the moon when the TA is early.
TA is about PROBABILITY. But it is only HALF the equation for how price will really move.
I wouldn't consider the top line a trend line, as it only touches 2 points.
I'd draw the trend line starting at the same point, but touching the top of the candles on 05-June, 09-July, 22-July. In which case the most recent price action is a breakout.
On the 4hr there is a higher high, higher low, higher high.
On the daily chart there is not enough info to confirm a trend change yet.
TradeClass
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@halcy0n9001, that's my point, it is not done yet. And only does the three-two opposing touch rule apply... when it is a wedge. This is a triangle that is NOT done.
TradeClass
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@halcy0n9001, OH I SEE what you are saying. The top line could be lowered a bit and still touch two peaks. Let's see what happens.
solargod
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@TradeClass, I'm a folllower and here to learn. I do agree with halcyon above as there is no points to connect to make a trendline......triangle or otherwise so would appreciate some input on how it appears to be on todays close. Here's a quick question for you. This is a linear chart that clearly has broken through resistance. It disappears when changed to log. One can see patterns form both ways. Your thoughts? Thank you in advance.
TradeClass
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@solargod, I think when I made the chart, the line moved on the chart and I did not notice. I was very tired at the time. Regardless, it's comical.
Yes, trend lines are sometimes in the eye of beholder. However, I subscribe to manipulation theory.. and trend lines get broken all the time. I think my point is that you cannot hold trend lines fully accountable because there is a bottom and a top.. and often you get lines coming from peaks way back from other dates. People like to think TA is an exact science and it is not and if you tracked any one TA pro in their rooms and logged them every day, you would see about a 50% accuracy.
The best thing you can do is call a trade and make a profit. If you do that 75% of the time, you are making good money.
halcy0n9001
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@TradeClass, I agree with this which is why TA is so subjective.
At school we are taught lines represent hard boundaries (e.g. square, circle). Then we see a lines on a chart and as humans who want certainty and consistency, fall into the trap of believing just because there is a line on a chart it will be respected by the market.
The reality is this is a game of probability, and that is frustrating for many people.
On a daily chart like the one above I'd use log because I like to see price movement represented as a % rather than absolute price, on smaller time-frames linear can provide better context of the ups and downs if price is not moving wildly.
@solargod, I took another hard look and saw what I forgot to do. There are 7 trend lines that can be drawn from top to bottom. They all come out at different angles. And what I did was AVERAGE them in the drawing. Had I properly included ALL 7.. you'd see contradictions in the lines.
Hence overall, its one big triangle and because of manipulation, it doesn't fit the math no matter how you draw it. It's incongruous once you try to define it.
TXCrazyHorse
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Agreed. Looks like we need a breakout to $7350-ish to confirm.
I'd draw the trend line starting at the same point, but touching the top of the candles on 05-June, 09-July, 22-July. In which case the most recent price action is a breakout.
On the 4hr there is a higher high, higher low, higher high.
On the daily chart there is not enough info to confirm a trend change yet.