Keeping the explanation short here... But I want to note that this moment is pretty pivotal and this chart is conditional. After looking at a few things, and spotting the rejection we've already seen, I'm sticking to my original assumption that we won't break above that bottom support (now resistance) line. On any time frame under the Daily, BTC looks very very strong, and I think I've let that cloud some of my bias. Because really, it hasn't broken $7.8k yet.
$7.8k is the tell tell story here for whats going to happen next. Paying attention to the Daily RSI, we haven't put ourselves in a position to continue to break bullishly. It's contingent on the $7800 price level to be broken.
In the grande scheme of things, as said before, this move only happened to fill the futures gap. It just happened faster than expected. I wasn't expecting this wave to be so bullish, but It makes sense in terms of the futures expiration dates. There's still a gap to be filled below $6k, and trust me... It's going to be filled.
So, what does BTC need to do to break $7.8k? It needs to test that exact resistance within the next day or 2 before a larger pullback of a few days. If BTC pulls to $7100 and consolidates for several days before trying that level, then anything above $7,800 will likely become a lost cause. Take a look at RSIs 4-12hr. They need to be satisfied with a bearish divergence. But if the rejection is too great before it diverges, then its just setting up for failure. BTC needs to continue to push up very very soon if it wants to break through.
Now, trend lines, It's facing to heavy trend lines form that continuation triangle and its already rejected 300 points from the first trend line. It may not sound like a lot, but the way it struggled at that level with the market structure its forming reminds me a lot of distribution.
Wave count. This wave count is pretty much the structure of what I expected. Some form of a WXY or WXYXZ. My last post I had assumed that maybe a WXY was underway, but I suppose a WXY in that formation was a bit too bearish. In this case, a WXYXZ seems more fitting to the trend of this market.
Fibs. Pay attention to each fib level relative to its wave degree. I marked those colored fib levels for a reason. ;)
If $7.8k is broken, this count is NOT changed, its just adjusted. $9-10k will likely be its limited range and then I'm STILL expecting 3k. Not until 11k is broken will I consider 3k not being hit this year. Now (this isn't financial advice) if you are an investor, is waiting for 3k smart? No... Cause its probably going to be a super fast wick. Investors should probably be accumulating under 5k, imo.
Every one is far too bullish, I even caught myself maybe being a bit too bullish on twitter as well. So keep that in mind when considering how you are positioning for trades.
$7.8k is the tell tell story here for whats going to happen next. Paying attention to the Daily RSI, we haven't put ourselves in a position to continue to break bullishly. It's contingent on the $7800 price level to be broken.
In the grande scheme of things, as said before, this move only happened to fill the futures gap. It just happened faster than expected. I wasn't expecting this wave to be so bullish, but It makes sense in terms of the futures expiration dates. There's still a gap to be filled below $6k, and trust me... It's going to be filled.
So, what does BTC need to do to break $7.8k? It needs to test that exact resistance within the next day or 2 before a larger pullback of a few days. If BTC pulls to $7100 and consolidates for several days before trying that level, then anything above $7,800 will likely become a lost cause. Take a look at RSIs 4-12hr. They need to be satisfied with a bearish divergence. But if the rejection is too great before it diverges, then its just setting up for failure. BTC needs to continue to push up very very soon if it wants to break through.
Now, trend lines, It's facing to heavy trend lines form that continuation triangle and its already rejected 300 points from the first trend line. It may not sound like a lot, but the way it struggled at that level with the market structure its forming reminds me a lot of distribution.
Wave count. This wave count is pretty much the structure of what I expected. Some form of a WXY or WXYXZ. My last post I had assumed that maybe a WXY was underway, but I suppose a WXY in that formation was a bit too bearish. In this case, a WXYXZ seems more fitting to the trend of this market.
Fibs. Pay attention to each fib level relative to its wave degree. I marked those colored fib levels for a reason. ;)
If $7.8k is broken, this count is NOT changed, its just adjusted. $9-10k will likely be its limited range and then I'm STILL expecting 3k. Not until 11k is broken will I consider 3k not being hit this year. Now (this isn't financial advice) if you are an investor, is waiting for 3k smart? No... Cause its probably going to be a super fast wick. Investors should probably be accumulating under 5k, imo.
Every one is far too bullish, I even caught myself maybe being a bit too bullish on twitter as well. So keep that in mind when considering how you are positioning for trades.
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This is the other scenario. But that small candle to the upside needs to happen, and it needs to pierce through that bottom support.
This is the other scenario. But that small candle to the upside needs to happen, and it needs to pierce through that bottom support.
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On to scenario two. If $10k breaks, get ready for 11k
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Things are moving on track. Look for more lift in the short term to 6.8k. 4.7k should follow.
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Uptrend pivots are being broken thru. Prepare for new lows. Follow on twitter for better updates @cryptoeball
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beginning of expected short squeeze here. Expecting a pullback to 6245. Longing to target 1 @ 6800, target 2 @ 7400
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www.tradingview.com/chart/zrVbS5JJ/ the 2 scenarios
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cannot upload the correct link for the chart for some reason, please refer to my latest tweet.
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careful of this level being re-distribution. We may never cross back above 6.8k. A break below 6.2k is bearish in my opinion.
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eyes on this structure. Looks much like distribution. A break below $6200 signifies a break in market structure, could mean the next continuation of the downtrend. Focusing on the triangle here, a break in either direction will mean a big move.
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market structure hasn't broken yet, so dont get too comfortable with shorts. A move back above 6400 would be a massive warning sign on shorts in profit
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careful with shorts everyone, dont forget to use stop losses. Not financial advice, but i'd only risk a small portion (1-5%, depending of port size) on a short if i'm in one. Remember that position size will equal to taking Acct Risk (1-5%) / Stop Loss % * (times) Account Size. Do NOT risk much on a short here. The downtrend is NOT confirmed, and just because its bounced 4 times on this level does NOT mean it will break, its an orderblock, if its doing this, it can continue up. Only add to your short if downtrend is confirmed.