I wanted to get this posted in time to potentially embarrass myself.
This has been a difficult wave to figure out, even in retrospect. I will update this with more detailed charts explaining how I got my counts. I actually have three different bearish counts, all with the same targets. This is just to track and show targets.
Bullish case (green EW count), we just finished wave c and are about to finish a leading diagonal into a 5-wave to complete our first leg up of wave (c). Disregard the horizontal line for this scenario.
Bearish case is we still have yet to have our fifth impulse wave down to complete wave c. At least this count could be invalidated if we cross above the horizontal into the price range of wave 1, but it is giving us good resistance right now. I came to this count a few different ways, but included extended subwaves, either i or iii. I will post cleaner charts from MotiveWave software I am using.
Bullish case target: $11,000 Bearish case targets: $8000-$7500
I am leaning towards the bearish count, as I have more independent indicators pointing towards the same targets, which I always like to have in my back pocket. (Bearish Shark, 0.618 fib retrace of rally from Feb. 6th, 1.618xA=C, etc.)
Stay tuned for updates.
(I will try to make a post on Ethereum tonight, but I will say it is looking a lot stronger currently)
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If you have been following the 1.618 fib extension of the AD leg of our bearish shark is $7800. The range on the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces since the Feb. 6th lows is $8150 - $7300. The most convincing one in my eyes is the fact we are (presumably) finishing an ABC in which most cases C = A, 0.618*A or 1.618*A. Since the first two are no longer options I assumed the case where C = 1.5*A and 1.618*A which gives us a range of $7884-$7626 roughly. The median line of our downtrend pitchfork is in the same area as all of the above, depending on timing.
Here's a quick (messy) chart showing all of the above.
Last but not least here is my leading EW count as well as the fibnacci pinball showing price target for wave V being around $7750. imgur.com/a/46qdU
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Approaching trend line on falling volume, unlikely to break or overthrow:
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Close, but no cigar. Near-term it should look to do a 100% retrace:
Targeting $8400.
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This could be considered an ABC zig-zag as well. ab=cd if it falls from here.
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This is now my primary wave count imgur.com/a/QOVqZ this or the bullish case
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Testing support of top of channel. If we hold here I see a potential run to $10,400-$11,000. If not then my $7750 target stands.
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Interesting triangle forming on both ETH and BTC, and several alts. Both bearish and bullish counts are still valid for now.
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We haven't made any convincing moves upwards yet. I think we need to break $10,400 to really call this anything but corrective action.
Trade closed: target reached
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Upward "rally" was just a wave 4. Bearish count was correct. Hit our target of $7750. If we do not see a rally above $8700 I am inclined to believe we will go lower. $7100 area is next support, 5k possible after.
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Double dipped in our buy zone, entering a small long position here with stops below $7500. Will post bullish analysis upon confirmation.
@MarinaFedorova, Thank you! Question is if we will have one more low.
Johnnysharp
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Any updates?
Manifested
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@renkcub, I will try and make a post this evening. I think we are heading for $7750, possibly lower.
donyewuc
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Lower lows and higher highs seem to be forming. Is Bitcoin in an uptrend or am I tripping?
Manifested
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@donyewuc, I think it is more of a corrective phase. I believe we might see one more low before a larger bounce.
donyewuc
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@Manifested, You're definitely right. Take a look at the log scale chart, very interesting things happening there. We're about to break a long-time daily support for the first time soon. (We just closed completely under it on the 4-hour chart for the first time in a year.) If it's broken, I think somewhere around 3.2K to 4K becomes a very real possibility.
donyewuc
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I guess the bullish scenario is playing out. I can't catch a break in this BTC market haha.
Manifested
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@donyewuc, Potentially. I am still skeptical of the wave counts. We got a 3-wave up then a 5-wave down and now a 5-wave up.
donyewuc
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@Manifested, Yeah, I'm super-confused about the counts I'm seeing. I'm no EW expert, but I thought waves had to have an ABC correction after a 5-wave count