micmuc
Short

Bearish divergence rally almost longest in BTC history

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Only once before price kept rallying after hitting RSI80 despite RSI subsequently declining (i.e. "bearish divergence") as long as it has last few weeks. That once before was May 2017 and back then the music stopped after 42 days. A correction of 40% followed.

Since hitting RSI80 on April 2nd of this year we have been rallying for 38 days already despite RSI decreasing. Bearish divergence is clearly visible on all time frames. When will the music stop? Nobody knows for certain but based on history it seems much more likely that coming months we'll go at least 1000 points lower than that we'll rally up more than an additional 100-200 points.

The most bullish scenario I personally see is that we'll keep going sideways for a few days, having some stabs at 6000 to get weak hands out and to allow the big guys to enter some considerable shorts too (They should have unloaded most of their long positions already), but then it's down from there. A little more bearishly and more likely is that we'll see a surprise -15% day somewhere coming days like we did on June 12th 2017; which ended that past -presently still longest- bearish rally.
The shorts need to be rekt first before BTC crashes down.
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micmuc bobchen29
@bobchen29

You should worry a little less about short levels being relatively high and more about long levels being relatively low..

I bet you can't find an example in Bitcoin's history where after an endured rally, in a situation with high shorts and low longs, the next big move was *not* a price crash ;-)
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micmuc micmuc
See for example November 2017:

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