BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
In my last analysis, I predicted the downward move from $6400 when everyone was bullish to $1,000,000, and this time, i think a big move is coming.



I could be very wrong here, as we're been stuck in this downtrend and knife catching is usually not the best strategy, but we've got a few things lining up in our favor.

I'm seeing some strong potential for a big bounce here.

$3550 was ideal entry as given this morning.

Shorts have gone into the 'danger zone' for a short squeeze.

We may see a big move within the next few hours to the $3900-$4000 with a potential for a big candle to $4300 - $4400.

RSI has a wedge forming with a strong support base as well.

OBV has been climbing as well with a bullish divergence ...

Sentiment is getting to all time low levels, so it'd be a perfect time for a short squeeze liquidation move.

With buy volume steadily increasing, you can enter on spot or with low leverage with a stop below $3500 for a low risk trade with a very high R:R. 

If you want to loosen up your stop, you can set it below $3400 in case we break below.

I think that if we do break below, it'll be hard and fast with strong support around $3,000 for big reflexive buy volume .

It's a DOWN TRENDING market, but this looks like a good opportunity for a long position before a big bounce.

Let's hope we get this move.

Thanks for reading. Comment with your ideas below.
Comment: Well, that trade got stopped out quickly.

No defense from the bulls for now.

A relief rally will have to wait.

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what do you think of this?




good trades!
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200WMA has always been the key level and I think this will be the bottom for this bear cycle, the 200WMA sits close to $3000 coincidently. However I think the price might drop further down to around $2500 in a fast manner to then close the weekly at around 3k. This is based on the price action of 2014-15 when we reached the 200WMA and the psychology of a bear cycle which I believe we are at the end of the depression stage. I will start getting in from $3000 at 1/5 at a time. Also I did get 40% of my portfolio trapped at 6k but that was a risk I was willing to take. still in the scheme of multiple years 6k can be a great re-entry point as I’m in for the long term :)
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majorlee Poukitoun
@Poukitoun, like this.... 200WMA





good trades!
Reply
Poukitoun majorlee
@majorlee, Yes pretty much that but I would not use the EMA on such long time frames but instead MA (not SMMA) so key entry for me is $2700-$3000 for long term :)
+1 Reply
majorlee Poukitoun
@Poukitoun, yeah well spotted and great point, i need to sub again so i can change out the indicators lol
Reply
Poukitoun majorlee
+1 Reply
majorlee Poukitoun
@Poukitoun, interesting curves man, i'll give you a follow :)
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@jacobcanfield Hope you're ignoring the rather hateful comments I've seen on here. I don't know what it is about Bitcoin that brings out the toxicity. To everyone else - good technical analysis is NOT about being right all the time. It is about stacking as much probability in your favour as you can. 1 trade is also meaningless in the greater context of the thousands of trades you will log over your trading career. Good luck everyone.
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