ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.10.21

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Attention now turns to the ECB and FED where anything other than more cuts and QE Lite would be a huge shock. More interesting will be the response to the Crypto punchbowl, and it seems likely the flooding of USD supply will confirm the lows in BTC and perhaps emphasise the impact Macroeconomics has on Cryptocurrency. As such I tend to think the coming sessions will produce Crypto direction rather than noise.

Trade Bias

A broad range is now well established. Maybe the Brexit vote tomorrow can induce a break, but it will need to be a surprise outcome. General bias to fade dips towards the bottom of the range, expecting the current lows (infamous Bakkt floor) at 7,688 to hold:

For the less imminent long-term chart, I am unable to make any meaningful case for direction south, insulted from strong demand and episodes of BTC receiving inflows via risk-negativity:

The trimming of stale longs continues and I continue to believe that the right trade here is buying into $8,000, suiting my broader risk outlook and the notion that any further QE by the Fed (likely a done deal in my view) will be taken impulsively by the Crypto market:

Trading this view can be difficult of late as there is a lot of chop, keep risk light and try to be agile. As a bull I hope that support will hold. Feel free to jump in with your comments and charts to open the discussions for all to benefit from.

Comment: A quick chart update here before NY...

Related Ideas


We have pretty good chances for the upside move according to this chart.
xD what a chart mate... you call yourself a macro trader? xD
ridethepig UnknownUnicorn3997345
Lol mate @SharpShooter_ I know exactly what you mean, many macro guys believe that if you stare at a BTC chart for more than 10 seconds you will turn to stone...I can confirm rumours are not true!
Yesterdays rally was created by Bitmex it started at 7935. Its designed to distribute to public we will be going back to these levels for sure . Also as I mentioned before in one of your posts Binance Pump is still on at 7700 and we also will be going back to these levels . I predicted run to 8250 days ago we went little higher because FOMO kicked in as I mentioned in my post it will happen . Feel free to check all this out in this post and look on our conversation with in i explain everything ans had people doubting since beginning and they all chnged their mindas after we hit the targets i told them we will . Its all there and I explain how this works . You will see how I did trade all this region . Lots of info in comments and how I feel about it all . Can we see 8500 area yea totally but hammer will come and take it all . .
Checking @PTO
ridethepig ridethepig
Your comment from the previous idea:

"Well sir. I'm little more bearish then you on BTC last move was nice and all but it was triggered by binance pump . And followed by Mex pump . Im calling 7700 as my target and have many shorts open . Unfinished Auctions never fail . This is straight up market manipulation and is design to dump on retail . I believe that its orchestrated by BitMain the largest mining equipment company in order to push new product out . They ware the one behind 4K pump and put market on rally . With they unloaded old mining rigs to the retail . And replacing them with new once instantly that are 4 times more profitable . They already have new line in production for their own use and its even better than S17 witch are currently top of the line . S17 will be trash in less than a 6 months or so . For North america and most of Europe BTC needs to stay above 6K to be profitable with current energy price . China and Russia can go as low as 3-4K and still be in business . Im sticking to my guns and target is 7700 and that would be minimal pull back it can go even lower but you never know . All I know is that Unfinished auction needs to be finished ...."
PTO ridethepig
@ridethepig, Target one in the bag . .
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