BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
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Bitcoin looks ready to test $3000 before a strong reversal and breakout from the prospective bear trap.

The exhaustion volatility from the nonfailure reversal on 24/12 (blue vertical) predicts a break of $3000, providing institutional investors access to a significant liquidity pool. Fibonacci retracement (dark blue) has an extended fib level (0.786) at $2959. This is close to the previous resistance/support level found at $2955.
Short term Fibonacci time zone placement (vertical dashed) suggests that significant changes in trend may occur around 26/1 and 19/2. Long term Fib time zone placement (vertical solid) suggests a significant trend change around 10/2.

A high probability long position could be entered at the levels indicated in green, with a stop loss placed below 2900. The mid term targets from the predicted breakout average around 5400. This provides a potential R value of >14. I will post another chart as we approach the potential breakout zone.
Comment: Exhaustion volatility can also be measured from close-open, providing the same measure.
Comment: Hourly leading ichimoku resistance at key level ($3540) and downtrend resistance
Comment: Price breakout of downtrend, currently meeting resistance of previous trading range. Trade remains valid until upper resistance of previous trading range is broken
Comment: Hourly bearish TK cross within bearish kumo cloud.
This is a bearish-neutral signal. Suggesting sideways movement with a potential upward stop loss hunt, but with a probable bearish outcome
Comment: 6 Hour RSI remains consistently below 50, indicating bearish dominance
Comment: Current short position entry and exits.
Comment: 6Hr Bollinger bands have just tightened to the smallest bottle neck since the breakdown of 6K, with bandwidth confined to the lower 50% of the previous range (white circle)
This indicates very low volatility, which often precedes a high volatility move (As per Hunt Volatility Funnel)
This is occurring as we are 1 day away from the next short term fib time zone (5), while sitting on the significant level of 3500.
Comment: Price now at key level of significance (3565) as the day has closed on the short term fib time zone (5).

We could now see a break from the uniquely constrained volatility
Comment: BTC price in contact with resistance from previous symmetrical triangle (yellow dashed). 6Hr RSI resistance beneath 50
Comment: Short term ascending wedge
Comment: Rising wedge EW reversal
Comment: Potential Nonfailure reversal
Trade closed: stop reached:
Comment: Short position closed but prediction remains valid. Long position at 3000 will be outlined if price approaches buy zone.
Comment: MACD indicating a decision point soon
Comment: Bear flag forming on key level of significance
Comment: BTC hourly ADX highest it's been in 5 months, indicates the short term trend is very strong and might need to cool off with a bounce to around 3480
RSi break above 30 giving same signal
Comment: Fib speedlines suggest trend will slow to within the green lines
Comment:
Comment: Short term H&S in conlfuence with other signals suggesting a bounce (Not confirmed until neckline break). Take profit opportunity in green with short reentry in red
I'm holding a hedge short and taking some profits for later reentry
Comment: BTC long position, hedge against longer term short. R:R = 8.1, Min winrate =15% including drawdown
Comment:
Comment: Adjusting the fib speedlines to fit the recent low projects price to hit 3000 at the 8th Fib time zone in early feb. This could be the bottom
Order cancelled: After assessing the bigger picture, I don't believe BTC will reach 3000, but instead it appears likely to complete an inverted H&S formation
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