BITCOIN (#BTC): Re-buy $3600-$3500 area
Let's start with indicators on 1D chart.
The most interesting remains BB. It has been 44 days, since BTC moves above BB's Base Line and at the same time reached out of BB's upper border for the 1st time. Since then has been out of the channel 4 times, which is a lot. BB channel remains narrow, indication a significant price movement will follow.
is moving to the south, to the 50 line. indicates trend change.
Let's move to 1D EMAs - EMA100 ($3993) continues to prevent BTC from price increase. Currently, BTC losing EMA10, 1st sign. As support levels can be found EMA20 ($3918) and more significant EMA50 ($3842).
Looking at current price action (let's move on 4H TF) - interesting are two drops followed by unsuccessful pullbacks and lot of below important Fib levels. Also, we have LL and LH there.
Skip to 1W - these really don't look .
Conclusion - downtrend expected, this setup remains valid. Some retracement can be expected between $3700-$3600.
Watching EMAs - EMA20 lost and BTC is heading to EMA50 which BTC safed from a drop. I'm curious how BTC solve it.
I redrawn pullback target. Now, I don't expect pullback more than $4000.
I made some small changes in TA:
a) new downward trend channel added
b) revised a potential zone of retracement, the new one $3800 - $3850. If BTC bounced off this level successfully, we can expect leg up to $4100 zone.
Now, I expect some wicks to $4000 zone and then dowward trend continuation. So, my idea remains active.
Watching 1D RSI - pay attention to blue line, RSI resistance level. RSI is testing this resistance from below and so far no success. On the other hand, BTC still moving above centreline. MACD lines are a bit ahead bearish crossover.
Finally, let's take a look at some price action - 1H chart, BTC is ranging in narrow channel, few bucks only. We can see choppy market and it is upredictable and usually very dangerous. When you look at the last few candlesticks, BTC is moving in channel contains $5 difference.
Conclusion: Waiting for $3600-$3500 area to go long.
4H candlesticks - bearish harrami, hanging man a shooting star slightly below resistance zone.
Maybe we see 4150 at the weekend, but as i wrotte before I'm going to load more BTC at the price zone 3600-3500.
Let's see what happened here in the last hours and what we can expect from Bitcoin in next hours.
Let's start with pink trend line leading from 28.11.18. BTC has had 2 unsuccessful breakouts and now another one is taking place. The trend line was rejected by Shooting Star candle. The next candle is Hammer with pretty long wick, but followed by bearish candles too. A lot of sellers are still there.
On the other hand, look at light blue line, another trend resistance level, formed since 24.02.19. We can see nice breakout with good volume. A few hours later BTC tested this level successfuly as support by Hammer candle. So, 4020 is important level for us.
RSI is above 60 level, but it is making LH. MACD lines are just before crossover and histogram remains green but it is declaining.
If we look at the price action on 1D, previous mentioned Shooting Star and Hammer candlesticks, forming bearish Spining Top candle or it can be Doji. Both of them should warn us.
Interesting is the fact that BTC have stayed above BB's Basis for 49 days. The last it was just 25 days. Also we can see a few top line rejections. It means that price must be retraced. Based on BB our levels are 4090 and 3800.
MACD histogram is green and MACD lines pointing up and their spacing increases. Btw. MACD histogram is green for 7 weeks.
RSI is moving upward and approaching long term resistance level. Also, RSI still remains below centre line.
BB set the resistance at $4400.
Looking at candlesticks, they still look dangerous. Small bodies with short shadows will not reveal anything good.
It is clear that BTC is still in correction.
RSI is flat and moves slightly below 70 line but it is back above resistnace line.
MACD histogram is green and MACD lines are moving to the north. However, given the latest price action, I do not consider this a strong signal to buy.
Let's move to BB. BTC makes HH inside the BB's channel. It may be the signal of trend change. The shape of BB's channel remains narrow, also it may be the signal of trend change.
If we look at candlesticks - one bear candle after another. Today, the price ragne is very tight and BTC remains below $4000. On the other hand, look at support at $3958. We can see a nice breakout from Wednesday and BTC tested this level as a support on Thursday. So this is our nearest support level. The next are $3728 & $3378. As resistance levels remain $4200 and $4400.
BTC's analysis update is here. Today, focus on 4H chart.
MACD bearish crossover and Histogram indicates that bears are starting to control the market. RSI is moving slightly below 70 level and have 2 unsuccessful breakouts.Also RSI is forming Bearish Divergence.
Current BTC price action seems to me be likely bearish. Currently, BTC is in area of two trend resistance lines (see pink lines). The 1st one was exceeded, but it is very ugly breakthrough - candlesticks with small bodies and low volume. The 2nd one remains above the current price level.
I added some interesting S/RLs into the chart.
I closed all of my BTC's long positions. Now, I'm waiting for drop below $4000 or price increase above $4200.