before Chia could be traded, just a few weeks after the mainnet went live, people where absolute overhyped for no reasons. Thats why the price was way overrated at the features market. I told people that I would expect 20 USD. IMO there is one thing people get wrong with crypto networks again and again. They think that if the network has a big hashrate, or the hasrate rises, that the price will also rise automaticaly. But that's not true. It is mostly the opposite: If the price rises, then the hasrate will rise if it gets profitable for new miners/farmers annd existing miners/farmers to sell coins and reinvest. The demand of a coin and the supply is the only thing wich realy influences the price.
The potential tradeable supply is 3363840 after 1st year. 6727680 after year two (Q1 2023) and 10091520 after year three. The market cap was ~200M for the most of the time the first year. That resulted in a Price of ~ 59 USD after the first year. The market cap was stable in comparison to other coins (but that can change fur sure). If this will stay arround that 200M the price will go down to ~29 USD in Q1 2023 and ~ 19 USD in Q1 2024.
This is not a scientific calculation. Just over the thumb. The markets change, demands and tradeable supply change. (IMO there is also a decrease in supply and demand at the moment)
What I expect:
1. The price falling more. I expect the bottom ~ 5 to 15 USD 2. Decreasing network size of the next year or two 3. A tech market crash within the next two years
What I think is possible:
1. a FOMO bullrun before the crash with up to 10x from current price 2. Market cap could fall below 100M
What Chia needs:
1. Network kept stable 2. Network size to not fall too low 3. Features and -> Adoption 4. Better software and app (IMO it is still unbelivable that it is based on Python) 5. Get into the sustainability discussion as a compromise between decentralised PoW and more centralaised and unsave PoS 6. Sustainable not hyping marketing -> Adoption
Then it can break out of the top and price will rise over time.
Just my 5 Cents
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XCH keeps falling as expected but with a increased momentum. This reflects the global crypto market. The main support is ~ 30-33 USD and we see repeating lower lows. If it dumps below 30 it will verly likely turn into the resistance and I expect the next support at ~20-25 USD. IMO the question is where the global crypto market goes the next few month and if the company can make progress in case of partners and adoption. I am still curious how far south it will go. I slowly started buying and places some limit buy orders. The risk is very high.
Spot on analysis. That's exactly why chose to quietly farm & hodl, rather than buy. Surprised so many peeps are turning their rigs off. Not complaining :)
bL1TZZ
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Nice observation. I'm slightly bullish on Chia. A fomo run is possible, after all, its corrected 99%. Keep up the good work
Just4FunTrader
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@bL1TZZ, I am bullish too in long term (10+ years). If we consider the 64 XCH per 10 minutes inflation it was a long time very stable for a new coin. It just broke the tunnel with the last dump. I am curious how deep it will dive. In my calculations it is not unlikely that the bottom is ~ 17 USD but possible to dump even below 10 USD. Depending on the global market or unexpected events. My calculations are not even that optimistic for mid term (next 3 years). EOY3 (~Feb 2024) the price is ~24 USD with a market cap of again ~240M USD. This is in case the network does not get big attention and just will start to grow in a "healty" way.
I am also currious how long the ~32 USD support will stay unbroken. IMO it paints a flag again and can dump short term to ~24 USD.
bL1TZZ
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@Just4FunTrader, Thanks for the response. Very possible indeed. Keep this thread updated, it will be much appreciated. Cheers :)