The reason I have included a very long (2004-2009-2016) is to give the reader an idea that we are still in the beginning of a possible long term .
Case 1) The squeeze fails and we will enter a long term for the next few years. Similar logic can be used for retrace at the bottom.
Case 2) Possibility of a very sharp fall to 1.8 (2009 resistance). This will happen if the squeeze fails to the downside. There's no other strong resistance for the downtrend once we cross the horizontal resistance near 1.95
It's actually possible to predict the before the downward trend starts but that's a story for another day.