Aussie-scalper

WES - neutral to bullish strategy : Bull Put Spread ( options)

Aussie-scalper Updated   
ASX:XDJ   S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index

The Consumer discretionary sector is correcting in a Bull leg - it has done 'normal' correction so far in length and time;
SO looking at a stronger leading stock in the sector - we have a similar action.

As this places a slightly higher probability of the stock at least holding 'above' support zones below - a neutral to bullish options credit spread can take advantage of slightly higher options implied volatility for the past 30 day ( 33% vs 27%) ;
and with only 14 days left on June 25th expiry can get the 'time-decay' before it closes below credit leg strike of 40.75.

Bull Put spread June expiry : -15 shares @ 40.75 strike ( european) = -0.74
+15 @ 40.06 = +0.53 diff = + $ 464 premium paid
no stops required as if stock expires 'in the money below 40.74, I will buy the stock after being exercised and hold for a recovery of any losses on the table whilst doing a covered call strategy for extra income & hold for dividend payment in 2 months time.....

The entry strategy : Firstly, the consumer discretionary sector is down three bear bars without too much overlap,
and it has equaled the largest correction recently of about -9.5%. As its a fairly strong uptrend, I anticiapte it won't drop to much further or if so, it will recover fairly quickly to AT LEAST present levels for the next two weeks.... ( neutral)
This is because this sector is defensive in nature, and coming to end of June Quarter should see ' window dressing' by FUNDs on the conservative side.
Stock analysis : WES has a similar corrective degree though only -7.5%, and is the 'Leader' in terms of strength in this sector.
The entry signal is based loosely on 'The ANTY' which takes advantage of catching brief corrections in a larger trend.
The modified Stochastic indicator shows its cycled down to corrective part of cycle creating a disparity in price to averages.
I only haven't waited for 'confirmation of next day recovery because I wish to use an options - spread as ' protection rather than a stoploss, and I want to enter on a down- day to get the most oomph in the put premium I can sqeeze out given only 14 days left for time-decay to do the rest of the errosion in premium ( and thus my profit being a credit spread).



Trade active:
With only 3 days until expiry this trade looks safe....likely to keep in the bank premium paid to me for credit spread....

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.