I can adjust my outlook for the Shanghai A Shares index when applying the "Kennedy Channeling Technique" (devised by Jeffrey Kennedy of Elliott Wave International).
It suggests that the 4th wave of an impulse would fall below the lower trendline of the "Acceleration Channel" before it would be complete. When counting waves (1) and (2) of C(circle) of B as shown in the chart, and drawing the channel from their extremes (using the assumed top of wave (3) as the channel's top coordinate) the 4th wave-looking correction between December and March did not fall below the channel. It did fall below a more narrow channel made from an assumed later-occurring smaller degree 1st and 2nd wave, which leads me to suspect that the index is just hitting it's wave (3) now and will decline in wave (4) to below this channel (perhaps to .236 or .382 of wave (3), where the red box is) before rising again in a wave (5) at least slightly above this wave (3) to complete "C" (circle) of B of IV.
When wave (4) develops, its parameters could provide the guidelines for drawing the descending "Deceleration Channel" which would be useful in determining where wave (5) begins.
Comments
AynCzubas
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At this point, wave "C" (circle) has reached up another leg to hit precisely 1.618 of the length of wave "A" (circle). This is a common relative length for 3rd waves vs. preceding 1st waves and "C" waves vs. their "A" waves.
It could indicate the end of the rally (at least for now), if we interpret the January-February action as the 3rd and 4th wave and the subsequent rise until now as an extended 5th wave with five internal waves now complete at this level.
Fomenka
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Dunno.. looks like it can be complete already. Especially with US markets topping. Would be a nice match if they all sync in downturn
AynCzubas
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I'm inclined to agree. But, you know, if the US markets top and begin an impulse wave down, it would be textbook for the first wave down to be retraced .618 before stalling and commencing the long third wave. That scenario could more or less match too.
It could indicate the end of the rally (at least for now), if we interpret the January-February action as the 3rd and 4th wave and the subsequent rise until now as an extended 5th wave with five internal waves now complete at this level.