Post-crash Corrective Rally Potential

INDEX:XGY0   Shanghai Class A Idx
39 0 1
Notwithstanding my longer-term concerns about the Chinese stock market, it does appear to me that the first leg of the crash from 5423.248 may be nearing completion.

Looking at the structure of the correction thus far on the daily chart , the consolidation roughly in the middle of it can be counted as a contracting triangle, and the post-triangle thrust measurement has already been very nearly achieved by the subsequent price action. I would still allow some space for further decline (perhaps a final short wave down toward 2666), but I suspect that the majority of the first downward wave has unfolded and we will see some upward correction soon.

Unless the next rally were to exceed the June high, I would maintain a skeptical stance on the prospects of continued progress in the Chinese market.
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