IvanLabrie
Short

China's situation: Bearish outlook and global turmoil

INDEX:XGY0   Shanghai Class A Index
a year ago
In the recent turn of events, the focus of everyone has been shifted to the terrible terrorist attacks that occurred in Paris where countless innocent people were killed, all of a sudden.
I don't want to raise fingers and point at anyone, but it draws my attention to the recent bearish scenarios presented in most stock indexes around the world, where a very grim outlook has formed.

Today I will focus on China, the oil             futures and Sinopec's chart. I have given timely signals to short these instruments, see related ideas, and it's now clear that my forecast is valid and en route.
I'd like to condemn these events, and pray for the families of those who were sadly killed, and for a peaceful resolution to all this turmoil, which I fear might not end well.
In this more serious note, I'd leave you with my forecast for these instruments, I fear this is very much alike 2001, too much for my liking.

Regards,
Ivan Labrie.
a year ago
Comment: I'm not connecting China to terrorism like some poster here implied.
That's not what I meant at all. Just that when big moves happen, suddenly terrorist attacks occur...it's a strange coincidence and we'll see if I'm right if global equities take a turn south.
a year ago
Comment: If we see a new weekly high, then we might see a rally.
Monitor it.
a year ago
Comment: Crucial week to determine direction.
a year ago
Comment: Posted updated XGY0 chart. This one's still valid as well.
a year ago
Comment: How long can the government support the A shares? According to my mentor Tim West, this Friday, we might see a very significant event for stocks (US in particular). For more information check out his 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom.
a year ago
Comment: On track.
a year ago
Comment: It's likely to see a rebound in all these markets, oil hit a strong support and the stocks are reflecting it.
a year ago
Comment: Crude and copper and gold turning around are helping Asia.
a year ago
Comment: On track.
a year ago
Comment: Let's see if the Chinese stocks reach my target.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
SitoRoman
a year ago
hi Ivan, yes theses "bearish scenarios" had my attention one moth a go weak up... I wish "Peace and all the Best" for all kind-hearted people around the World. One Heart One World https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GER30/prjGQJz1-DAX-on-Fundamentals/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_vote
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO SitoRoman
a year ago
Thanks for stopping by.
Regards.
+1 Reply
PlayDefence
a year ago
Hi, IvanLabrie. Your analysis hints me found a potential H&S on weekly chart in ShanghaiComposite Index. http://i.imgur.com/1ygWhGR.png
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IvanLabrie PRO PlayDefence
a year ago
Yes, many will see it as an H&S. It's a potential top.
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On a large scale over time,this is the global picture to be watching while U.S. hegemony comes to a slow end.It will impact the U.S. Dollar on a fundamental basis:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-14/time-running-out-pax-americana
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-15/yuan-s-rise-means-world-economy-takes-step-to-greater-stability
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-15/imf-greenlights-addition-chinese-yuan-sdr-basket-wall-street-responds
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO RobertHerdman
a year ago
Thanks for the extra information.
Yes, I agree with these insights.
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blackswan IvanLabrie
a year ago
Chinese need yuan to become recognized so that they get the privilege to print their currency and fund their own expansion plans. same forces but difference currencies.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO blackswan
a year ago
This.
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peterchung16 RobertHerdman
a year ago
Zerohedge is one of the most dishonest online news in the internet. Although, Wall St Journal is a piece of crap. At least, they spew out truth 30% of the time. Zerohedge is just spewing out sensational crap 95% of the time. I still trust the wall st research like Barron all the time.

Come on! Time is running out of Pax americana. 5 mins ago, US dollar is still pegged to the crude oil. If not more, America just become one of the largest oil exporter in the world. Tell me how does it end?
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IvanLabrie PRO peterchung16
a year ago
thanks for the comments BTW. This is a very interesting discussion. cheers
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LastBattle peterchung16
a year ago
If you can't read FUD and form an opinion of your own then you don't understand the market. ZH is a great resource anyway.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO LastBattle
a year ago
I use zerohedge, among others personally.
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Hi, Ivan. China has nothing to do with the terrorism, please do not connect those situation between them. Reacently, China changed our intelligence bank and I've seen some wisdom already. It's not the best time to short Shanghai composite index until 3 month later. I've been watching markets correlations for some time and I think DAX is leading global stock markets and EEM index is leading Shanghai composite index.
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IvanLabrie PRO Victor.Y.F
a year ago
I never said China had anything to do!

I'm saying, all global equities look ready to take a dive...and now this happens!
1999-2000 was the end of the bull market for the US stock market.
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Victor.Y.F IvanLabrie
a year ago
ok, it's my bad. Sorry for my misunderstanding.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper
a year ago
Global equities going south may mean BTC and LTC going north. Just a thought.
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IvanLabrie PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Or all go south if CNY rallies.
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rivet.popper IvanLabrie
a year ago
I highly doubt CNY will rally, given what a piss-poor condition china's economy is in...
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IvanLabrie PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Currencies rallying have nothing to do with 'piss-poor' economy.
Did you read about the SDR?
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rivet.popper IvanLabrie
a year ago
Yep, SDR will not save the Yuan. Ask a person living in China if they believe anything their gov't says.
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IvanLabrie PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Doesn't matter what the people believe. FX isn't ruled by 'the people'.
Are you chinese?
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rivet.popper IvanLabrie
a year ago
FX is ruled by belief. No one believes any of the Chinese govt economic figures, not even the chinese.
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IvanLabrie PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Do you trade FX?
I see 0 charts.
Mind posting your view?
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rivet.popper IvanLabrie
a year ago
Yes I trade FX. I don't post trades here. If you want to believe the Chinese govt figures, go right ahead. You will be the last one doing so...
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peterchung16 rivet.popper
a year ago
Excuse me, How can you trade the Chinese pair. It is completely pegged by the Central bank.

In case, you don't know. Every central bank controls their own pair by interest rate, pegged policy and buy back USD/Euro. So, your statement about GDP is irrelevant.

In case you don't know, The Central bank can not just say something to fix their currency rate. They have to short their own currency by buying USD/Euro.

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nietz1 rivet.popper
a year ago
hehe
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peterchung16
a year ago
Ivan, I would think you should leave this market alone. Chinese market is completely controlled by the government. In the west, we still have freedom from the plunge protection team. At this moment, they terminates all the QE. It gives more freedom to investor and trader. They cut and burn the M2 supply, so they limit the supply of money.

Well, in China, they are running an extreme plunge protection program. The government doesn't give a rat, if the stock is losing 100 billion. They just keep buying. To bet against the tightly controlled market, is a way to burn yourself.

They don't care if the GDP goes to 0 growth per quarter. They care if the Stock market plunge below 3000, because a lot of Chinese saving and retirement fund are in the A share.

George Soros was a very brilliant Hedge fund manager. He got burned in 97, playing the Hong Kong market. Normally, it would work on London or New York. But the Chinese government creates a mega soverneign fund with retirement and saving. They buy substantially near the bottom of the Trend. All of George's position was burned to the ground, especially he was very heavy on Margin.
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Victor.Y.F peterchung16
a year ago
You were wrong about shanghai composite index in June. it's a huge monthly profits taking area.
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peterchung16 Victor.Y.F
a year ago
I wrote at that time, because there were no evidence that the long term bull trend is over. Well, the bull trend line break. It didn't even go through the Trading Range. It heads down as a V top.
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Victor.Y.F peterchung16
a year ago
I took profits before that drop happened. I’m pretty sure it’s gona drop. There will be an other 5 wave swings for targeting around 4000 after some retrace. Becareful there.
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peterchung16 Victor.Y.F
a year ago
I wouldn't be surprise that it will go to 4000 now. But betting against the Government is always been a losing business. In the US, many idiots are betting against the QE by shorting the NQ/E mini futures. They sell their house, listen to likes of MSNBC, Zerohedge or Gold and silver website, betting against the Central bank. Well, Guess What, the central bank has unlimited power to print money to save their market. They run those people over, like a bulldozer especially in 2013.

Now, they harps about China GDP, Chinese economic collapse, deflation, inflation, stagnation, superinflation, massive unemployment factory shutdown, etc. Guess what again to those people, the central bank of China will run them over like a bulldozer again.

Betting against the Chinese government is losing a business. George Soros was one of the them. He loses his shirt in 97 by using margin.
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Victor.Y.F peterchung16
a year ago
Agree with you.
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nietz1 peterchung16
a year ago
Very sensible answer
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LastBattle peterchung16
a year ago
Governments can control the market over the short term, never in the long term. Who will be parachuting-dropping money if the markets were to go up forever?
If you're burned by it, its not a result of government having an artificial control but the trader that's unprepared.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO LastBattle
a year ago
Yes, they aren't almighty.
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Alright guys please stop fighting. I traded stocks in China and I took profits this year and last year. The fact is after June's falling PBOC invest about 2000 billions RMB for holding shares to stable the index. Now the market has been manipulated for some time. Next year or 3 months later there will be a supply in this market. I will buy a retrace especially banks shares untill that supply happens.
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IvanLabrie PRO Victor.Y.F
a year ago
It's definitely an interesting market.
I have forecasted it correctly before.
Let's see of it behaves this time.
Oil and copper look really bad.
I don't believe central banks are Almighty though.
If they were we wouldn't have 1987 , 2000 or 2007.
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Victor.Y.F IvanLabrie
a year ago
It's not a very big market and could be easily manipulate in China. There is a final push around global stock markets, this is too early to call that top. Look at Tim's SPX500 short term predict please. Look at EWF's USD/CHF double extreme predict please.
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Victor.Y.F Victor.Y.F
a year ago
DAX is leading global stock markets not the shanghai composite index, it's lagging about 3 months.
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IvanLabrie PRO Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Yes, it's lagging, this is why it's a nice short.
Look at the chart...it's a great short entry.
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Victor.Y.F IvanLabrie
a year ago
There is NO BIG ORDER to short this market in China now only foreign markets future can short it. Profits taking or supply could do that. I can't say too much but only tell you it's different now.
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Victor.Y.F IvanLabrie
a year ago
I just recalled in 1987, 2000 or 2007 there're no PBOC in this market. PBOC has never bought stocks untill July 2015. If you were right once it's changing now, and I was right about the top too.
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IvanLabrie PRO Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Even if they forbid shorting, buying can disappear and it can gap and gap down.
+1 Reply
Victor.Y.F IvanLabrie
a year ago
There are too much money there, rates getting to zero soon. Remember it's a manipulated market and PBOC control it now.
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
FYI there is a small supply about 1000billion will be locked in 2 weeks. It's time for short time short.
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peterchung16
a year ago
How to join Tim West Key Hidden level chatroom?
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IvanLabrie PRO peterchung16
a year ago
Let me link it here.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#c8BzrhGRvXxGXWnJ
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
There are huge supplies in 3 months at China stock market. Let's see if 2100 will be tested next year.
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LastBattle
a year ago
Yes, commodities are bouncing but only temporary. The demand isn't coming back, the glut still exist.

I've taken my 20% profit on YANG about 2 weeks ago at 94 -> 113. Waiting for a re-entry

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO LastBattle
a year ago
It still looks heavy, you're right.
Everything is temporary by the way.
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