I wonder if we are about to witness a market "correction" of biblical proportions, right in time for Easter.
So far this decade, all bearish bets have basically been slaughtered, but fundamentally, this is still a grand delusion, likely the greatest financial heist in the history of all our civilizations.
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Real-time: Looks like the flood gates have opened. Possible 20% decline ahead in the second leg down.
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It's a nut show out there: The tideis pulling in as many bagholders as possible before washing back into the sea day after day!
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All swept into the red sea in the last 10 minutes of the day. Incredible. Questions remaining are: Is the tide receding and is end destination a river, a sea, or an ocean?
BLDR -- which supplies the housing market -- will report on Tuesday. If it reports a blow-our first quarter, and the stock spikes, that will be the last spike here before the sea rushes in.
supere
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@AlmadeCubano, Yup, not long now. People who have failed to listen to the truths may be financially obliterated instantly.
relievedMind65097
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In general, to gauge how many dopes are still buying stocks, I look at whether Cathie Woods' ARKK is still getting inflows. When those stop, the bear will have bitten down hard.
supere
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Little cracks appearing in the makeshift dam now. Do people think this is the bottom, when the sea is about to come through?
supere
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@supere, You heard that Bill Hwang (Cathy's mentor) just got arrested for market manipulation? These people were the idols of this market generation. Unbelievable.
AlmadeCubano
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@supere, I heard Cathy talk, and I have no problem saying she's quite intelligent, and also completely full of shit. She claims to have researched how her companies will be doing 10 years from now. Like I said: she's full of shit.
AlmadeCubano
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From Zacks:
The State of the U.S. Housing Market – The U.S. housing market has been hot for the last two years, as the Covid-19 pandemic opened the door to remote and hybrid work and led many people to seek out homes with home office space and more room than can be found in cities. Home sales jumped in 2021 to their highest level since 2006 when subprime mortgages flooded the market. Ever-increasing demand with limited inventory has also pushed prices to new records, with median existing home prices in the U.S. reaching an all-time high in March. But in the current environment, mortgage rates have jumped to a decade-high, crossing the 5% mark and moving many would-be buyers to the sidelines given the higher cost of borrowing to ultimately pay for a home whose price has never been higher. Signs are starting to appear that existing home sales are cooling to record 2021 levels, with March seeing a 2.7% dip from February. Purchase mortgage application volume was also down 14% from last March levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.3
supere
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@AlmadeCubano, Do you have an opinion on the timing of this movement? A couple more bounces or is it over?
relievedMind65097
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@supere, I think this gets much uglier. I remember the early 1980s and Powell has to do a Volker.
But predicting when dopes will "but the dips" here is impossible. So I try to trade the range, with puts, because if I'm wrong, I can wait for the bear to bail me out.
AlmadeCubano
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Most wall street traders and "investors" have no clue who Paul Volker was.
You nailed this, because you "don't fight the Fed."