Sell in the May? or just a flat- special edition for Labors Day
This publishing chart is an monthly log scale one, correlated with DAX and SPX500 but a little lagging.
I'll update this slowly, weekly chart and EW wave count labels will presented for you.
No rush here and no panic here ok?
Every detail will show for Chinese traders and western investors.
I'll update this slowly, weekly chart and EW wave count labels will presented for you.
No rush here and no panic here ok?
Every detail will show for Chinese traders and western investors.
Comment:
From long time perspective the indexes are very high, but it can go higher to the historical new highs before the collapse. The global indexes are the same market where is called risk on appetite. So I look China stocks markets are still going new highs with this 2015-2017 FRB hike cycle stops. How high it is, Fantastic four.
Comment:
Source: www.tradingeconomics.../china/inflation-cpi
Please click 5Y for looking for 2015 inflation low. Apearently we're at the same low from the China inflation's failure. Now in China the money flow is frozen and all kind of markets is falling the Renminbi is devaluating. Soon the risk sentiments from our nature will endanger the politic stables if those stupid leaders cowards want more safe.
We're all human beings but partially we're still animals. The risk sentiments are our nature and the market provided us a place for output. If those emotions are depressing then there will be somewhere or someone getting hurt. Be carful here.
Please click 5Y for looking for 2015 inflation low. Apearently we're at the same low from the China inflation's failure. Now in China the money flow is frozen and all kind of markets is falling the Renminbi is devaluating. Soon the risk sentiments from our nature will endanger the politic stables if those stupid leaders cowards want more safe.
We're all human beings but partially we're still animals. The risk sentiments are our nature and the market provided us a place for output. If those emotions are depressing then there will be somewhere or someone getting hurt. Be carful here.
Comment:
Again, be careful here... China could happen huge political accident in 2017 from cowards leaders.
Comment:
We've seen the first light of the dawn from this market today, this monthly candle could close above 10 month SMA with huge volume but we have to wait for it.
From Jan. 2017 Renminbi was tightening and interbank interests went higher. If we look at the 15th. Aug. 2015 where the Renminbi announced devaluation, the market took 3 months or 11 weeks for reflecting the purchase power failure to force the FRB hiked in 2015. ( In fact, the disapointed March hike could be an hike instead of the PBOC) We calculate 3 months or 11 weeks from Jan. 2017 this is the moment where Renminbi's purchase powers should rise already. Now we're focusing on the sectors selecting and MSCI index selecting, also the inflations should go higher.
From Jan. 2017 Renminbi was tightening and interbank interests went higher. If we look at the 15th. Aug. 2015 where the Renminbi announced devaluation, the market took 3 months or 11 weeks for reflecting the purchase power failure to force the FRB hiked in 2015. ( In fact, the disapointed March hike could be an hike instead of the PBOC) We calculate 3 months or 11 weeks from Jan. 2017 this is the moment where Renminbi's purchase powers should rise already. Now we're focusing on the sectors selecting and MSCI index selecting, also the inflations should go higher.
Comment:
Comment:
Source: ( Medias in Chinese)
finance.sina.com.cn/...fyecfnu7371855.shtml
cj.sina.com.cn/artic...il/2678927085/256432
finance.sina.com.cn/...fyecfnu7371855.shtml
cj.sina.com.cn/artic...il/2678927085/256432
Comment:
I'm expecting the DAX and SPX500 pull back for several weeks and wait for the ECB reevaluate the Euro money policy and the USA political situation and the U.K reelection too.
Comment:
It's rising today, like I predicted 8 days ago. This weekly close and this monthly close we're watching the 10 months SMA for more clues, we could have further growth next month. The volume is still weak, and the damage is very deeply done from chuang'ye sector because of Renminbi's interests went higher and the money flow was cut by coward government leader's manipulating.
Yesterday, China small speculators sentiments reached the lowest extreme level where most people became to hate the leaders and also some main stream medias expressed disappointing and some of the famous economists were stating to criticize politicians. Still very dangerous this one from an huge political accident happens.
We look back the WWII. After Hitler knew he's losing the Moscow battle, many Germany officers had suggested pulling back. But he looked those good advices as big threatens to his dictator and for protecting his arrogance, he started making huge mistakes.
Yesterday, China small speculators sentiments reached the lowest extreme level where most people became to hate the leaders and also some main stream medias expressed disappointing and some of the famous economists were stating to criticize politicians. Still very dangerous this one from an huge political accident happens.
We look back the WWII. After Hitler knew he's losing the Moscow battle, many Germany officers had suggested pulling back. But he looked those good advices as big threatens to his dictator and for protecting his arrogance, he started making huge mistakes.
Comment:
Source: ( medias in Chinese)
www.sohu.com/a/144061761_260616
www.sohu.com/a/144086636_561670
This is changing everything to an up side moving, guys are you ready? The 31st. May is a Wednesday where the monthly close above 10 months SMA's possibility is very high. But we still have to wait for it.
For many years, the A shares market is a funding market where the supply exceeding the demand which was formed long term bears and short term bulls. History could have changed here.
If this prediction turns out right, we should have weighted YEN weakening and US dollar weakening together to keep core inflation at high level.
www.sohu.com/a/144061761_260616
www.sohu.com/a/144086636_561670
This is changing everything to an up side moving, guys are you ready? The 31st. May is a Wednesday where the monthly close above 10 months SMA's possibility is very high. But we still have to wait for it.
For many years, the A shares market is a funding market where the supply exceeding the demand which was formed long term bears and short term bulls. History could have changed here.
If this prediction turns out right, we should have weighted YEN weakening and US dollar weakening together to keep core inflation at high level.
Comment:
I want to remind western traders here, the SPX500 ( DAX too they're the same market) selling off options is more than 6 times of the buying up options from CFTC reporting. From a negative correlation the A shares should be against these 2 indexes. I'm expecting the DAX and SPX500 pull back for several weeks and wait for the ECB reevaluate the Euro money policy and the USA political situation and the U.K reelection too. Be careful guys, the FRB could stop hikes in any meetings for supporting the U.K.
Comment:
Technically, the A shares market is leading global indexes from now for several weeks, if this prediction turns out right. We'll see the top in 2 years by Renminbi's deposite interests going higher by hikes many times for controlling the inflation. Let's wait for it and let's see.
Comment:
In a natural pyramid of a food chain the predator's healthy is the key signal of the healthy in the total environment. Now it looks like in China, the predator is dying in the market. Soon those lower level grass eater will die too.
This index isn't closed above 10 months SMA yet. We're now holding short term monthly bank notes ( or cash) for the interests income till it clearly closes above the SMA with huge volume.
Let's see if the IMF's warning of an huge credit crisis will happen in China or not, by the PBOC's suicide money policy. I urge the China top authorities replacing the PBOC's minster ASAP or an huge crisis could be on the edge.
This index isn't closed above 10 months SMA yet. We're now holding short term monthly bank notes ( or cash) for the interests income till it clearly closes above the SMA with huge volume.
Let's see if the IMF's warning of an huge credit crisis will happen in China or not, by the PBOC's suicide money policy. I urge the China top authorities replacing the PBOC's minster ASAP or an huge crisis could be on the edge.
Comment:
If we look back 2005-2007, the A shares bull market cycle had some strange correlations should be noticed.
Perhaps we have too long time easing money policy period to remember what's the normal cycle looks like. The A share market is at a very bottom situation no matter you believe it or not. We may see new highs in 2 years or a longer bull cycle which depends on the rising speed, an art of controlling.
Perhaps we have too long time easing money policy period to remember what's the normal cycle looks like. The A share market is at a very bottom situation no matter you believe it or not. We may see new highs in 2 years or a longer bull cycle which depends on the rising speed, an art of controlling.
Comment:
The "rongzirongquan" bottomed yesterday correlated with Renminbi's 3 months capital flow lagging period. Very bullish, but be careful with those 2 sectors: beautiful 50 sector, rongzirongquan topped sectors like Mao-tai.
Comment:
Source: Please click MAX to see long term chart.
tradingeconomics.com/china/loan-growth
China long term Yuan loan growth, surprisingly, it looks like bottomed but not looks like contracted by the PBOC.
tradingeconomics.com/china/loan-growth
China long term Yuan loan growth, surprisingly, it looks like bottomed but not looks like contracted by the PBOC.
Comment:
An capital flow in A shares markets set base line from 0 point.
Shanghai Composite Index:
Rongzirongquan ratio, 345,2B Yuan/783,6B Yuan = 0.44,
Shenzhen City Index:
Rongzirongquan ratio, 471,2B Yuan/1486,9B Yuan = 0.3169,
Total: (345,2+471,2)/(783,6+1486,9) = 0.36, around 0.618.
Shanghai Composite Index:
Rongzirongquan ratio, 345,2B Yuan/783,6B Yuan = 0.44,
Shenzhen City Index:
Rongzirongquan ratio, 471,2B Yuan/1486,9B Yuan = 0.3169,
Total: (345,2+471,2)/(783,6+1486,9) = 0.36, around 0.618.
Comment:
From this calculation, we're using rongzirongquan bottom volume divided by top volume, which is showing us that the A shares markets' leverage had been lowered since 2015, now it's forming a two years big base of harmonic.
If we have any money flowing in or a leverage opening, the market should burst out the consolidation to the zone where profits should be taken there and should wait for another chance to enter.
If we have any money flowing in or a leverage opening, the market should burst out the consolidation to the zone where profits should be taken there and should wait for another chance to enter.
Comment:
The MSCI Morgan Stanley Capital International will conclude A shares in EEM emerging market index soon. The Goldman Sachs predicted possibility 60% but my point of view is 90%.
This prediction changes everything in forex market, I would like to update all charts one by one. I really suggest western investors pay attentions to A shares because it'll lead global stocks markets for 12 months at least. It may take 18 months from now to reach target new highs, maybe longer, depends on the rising speed or an art of control by China authorities.
Stay tuned...
This prediction changes everything in forex market, I would like to update all charts one by one. I really suggest western investors pay attentions to A shares because it'll lead global stocks markets for 12 months at least. It may take 18 months from now to reach target new highs, maybe longer, depends on the rising speed or an art of control by China authorities.
Stay tuned...
Comment:
We just noticed the MSCI received A shares as predicted. Today this index may rise dramatically in Asia market open. Risk on.
Comment:
China markets are going new highs with the fantastic four. I would like to inform traders on TV before the crisis in 2 years.
Comment:
Now we must watch out the China Government 10Y bonds future market for buying it into a negative again.
Looking back the China bonds market, it's crazy, it's no administration in there...
Looking back the China bonds market, it's crazy, it's no administration in there...
Comment:
Guys, expecting an first Renminbi's hike in the Aug. 2017, the only hike for this year. Today's pre-selling off of the market is a news leak from the important financial meeting last week, this could take 1 month to finish till the hike. After the hike market shall rise at once.
Comment:
It is a qualify moment to prove you are an "investor" or a "scalper"or a "speculator".
Comment:
The A shares market is showing a first sign of the bull today. The "Chuangye" sector looks like bottomed above 60 months SMA. Technically we have to wait for the monthly close but I'm looking forward to a bull cycle beginning.
A risk off may have come already.
A risk off may have come already.
Comment:
There's a sign of the Chinese speculators are piling into buying A shares now. This is the bad sentiments from our analysis. We suggest taking all profits and waiting for the pull back before the August close. Our prediction of Renminbi's hike is still valid.
Comment:
Today we have Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3330 (higher above the neck line) and Shenzhen City Index closed above 10385 (not higher than the neck line) also Chuangye Sector closed above 1804 (still weak). Those points are very bullish but the weekly volume is less than last week, Chuangye Sector is a dark candle too. It will be the key of this monthly close and the volume observation. There's no rush here at this moment. If this's a bull cycle then it may last as long as it can do depends on the rising angle before the historical high reaches. If this's a top then it's a trap. We suggest waiting for its clarity after the August close.
For more upside moving we should have used some money policy from Renminbi, an hike or the purchasing will be the trigger of this opportunity.
For more upside moving we should have used some money policy from Renminbi, an hike or the purchasing will be the trigger of this opportunity.
Comment:
Today's leading sectors are our suggested sectors: the Banks, the financial Security companies, of course the Miners too.
Comment:
Today we bring good news for traders in stock market, the A shares market is starting the first impulse which we're looking for 4 months rising till the end of 2017. Because of global stock market is sharing the same risk appetite, this will support SPX500 and DAX30 and will help the US dollar stable too.
The PBOC starts to purchase China 10 year bonds future market again or saying they're flushing the bonds market, of course there will be a stream flowing into the stock market.
Focus on the financial Security companies sector, it's aggressively undervalued...
This chart is trending.
The PBOC starts to purchase China 10 year bonds future market again or saying they're flushing the bonds market, of course there will be a stream flowing into the stock market.
Focus on the financial Security companies sector, it's aggressively undervalued...
This chart is trending.
Comment:
The show time...
Comment:
Rising now, with the inflation...
Comment:
New evidence is showing that weighted Yen rising and inflation rising won’t hurt SPX500 and DAX30. If we look back 2010 when the same situation happened the A shares is topping after several Yuan’s hikes. Be careful here, China market may slowly go down with hikes. In fact, China should do something like the USA at this point for supporting the stock market but I doubt it. The DXY weakness is still supporting this chart but limited.
Comment:
New evidence is supporting Yuan's hike soon, please choose your sectors wisely... this index is still going higher with banks, miners, industrials, chemical materials, core inflations...
Comment:
Bearish now, only hike can save it, but I doubt it.
Comment:
Bullish now.
A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
Comment:
Very hard one to predict: A shares indexes are Bearish now, please choose your sectors wisely.
A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
Comment:
China stock markets are bearish now only the deposit hiking may change the future. It’s very clear food is over and the core will be used by central banks. Funny thing is that when every road leads to an dead end, there’s the only way to do it right now, but will they do it? Stupidizing...
Comment:
Today we’ve had a China 10Y bonds yield topping around 4.04%, the price looks like bottomed by an hidden purchasing. We’re looking at the China market very carefully now, because this could decide USDJPY’s directions and XAU directions also the DXY.
If the Shenzhen Stock Exchange market is rising again, we should have a long term SMA support at 10 months average. But if it’s failed to manage the support then the fall will be abysmal. The volume is lower during the end of this year. We may have to wait and see till the next year.
Considering we have predicted Ger30 dropping 4000 points, the same situation in 2015 could be happening again. In 2015 the Ger30 topped on March and China topped on June with 3 months lagging. The SPX500 is better but in a flat.
Technically central banks are repealing the negative interests process, which have caused a bottom in the log scale chart.
If the Shenzhen Stock Exchange market is rising again, we should have a long term SMA support at 10 months average. But if it’s failed to manage the support then the fall will be abysmal. The volume is lower during the end of this year. We may have to wait and see till the next year.
Considering we have predicted Ger30 dropping 4000 points, the same situation in 2015 could be happening again. In 2015 the Ger30 topped on March and China topped on June with 3 months lagging. The SPX500 is better but in a flat.
Technically central banks are repealing the negative interests process, which have caused a bottom in the log scale chart.
Comment:
should be lower after the hike.
Comment:
With EU zone capital flowing out in 2018, after a mid term base has been built in 3 years, the China small caps sectors shall have better opportunities in 2018. Especially after the first hike in Renminbi where'll ignite the dynamic in this market.
Comment:
We'll publish a single stock analysis in Chinese version soon, the Data has included Shenzhen city index now on TV. Congratulations! Chinese small caps traders!
Comment:
Be careful now, we may have Chinese Yuan deposit hiking soon. We don't know how it will affect the A shares yet. So we stay put.
Comment:
Shenzhen 100 index and Renminbi deposit interests hikes before.
Comment:
On Feb 2, we Commented: "Be careful now, we may have Chinese Yuan deposit hiking soon. We don't know how it will affect the A shares yet. So we stay put."
What now?
What now?
Comment:
We've predicted China first hike window, on 18th. Feb. 2018, 5th. Mar. 2018, 21st. Mar. 2018. The stock markets are "pre-hike" correcting like 2015 after the first hike in USA.
Comment:
Traders! RISK OFF mode!
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.
Comment:
We're approaching USDCNY 11th. Aug. 2015 same level here.
What if you've invested China SZSE index
What if you've invested XAUCNY
What if you've invested China SZSE index
Comment:
Risk warning, Hong Kong hang seng index topping:
1; The Hong Kong monetary authority (HKMA) is selling us dollar reserves at hk $7.85.
2; Historically, the Hong Kong dollar will raise interests rates and tightening.
3; The hang seng index is forming a mid-term top, correcting in 20 months, an overheat period.
4. Hong Kong investors should sell shares, pay attention to core inflation, and hold Hong Kong dollars, or buy a one-year term deposit.
5; Don't buy dollars blindly.
6; Pay attention to Hong Kong property market, whether Hong Kong house prices fall will be decided by the Hong Kong dollar loan interests rates.
1; The Hong Kong monetary authority (HKMA) is selling us dollar reserves at hk $7.85.
2; Historically, the Hong Kong dollar will raise interests rates and tightening.
3; The hang seng index is forming a mid-term top, correcting in 20 months, an overheat period.
4. Hong Kong investors should sell shares, pay attention to core inflation, and hold Hong Kong dollars, or buy a one-year term deposit.
5; Don't buy dollars blindly.
6; Pay attention to Hong Kong property market, whether Hong Kong house prices fall will be decided by the Hong Kong dollar loan interests rates.
Comment:
Holding your breath, picking bottom soon. We've predicted a fireworks in months from China stock market. The PBOC should raise deposite interests in this case, start from 1.5% one year, it can go as high as 4.14%, we're talking about historical high in 12 months.
This is a signal, please don't miss it!
This is a signal, please don't miss it!
Comment:
Due to the PBOC mistakes this market now is crashing. If you guys couldn’t see the chart link please check the comment below.
Comment:
We repeat the Shanghai Composite Index 2200 target and DXY higher to 98 or 102 target. From the leading index point if view, China term of trade will be worse. It looks like a ban trade to China around world will happen, the door is closing, from inside and outside. Crazy stagflation in Renminbi, and Chinese populist in charge the power.
Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
Comment:
Can go lower but should be limited by the RMB weakness.
Comment:
Prediction now is supporting a raise in the Yuan's basic deposit interests ( 1.5% annually) in August to catch up with the fed's personal deposit rate ( 6.7% annually) : possibilities is more than 50 percent by now) See? China has lost already, inflation too high, Chinese people are poor by 5.2% now.
Comment:
Source: yahoo
finance.yahoo.com/ne...asian-042310529.html
It’s too early to say it, the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests is still negative, which will make assets price from buying rise to drop. PBOC didn’t understand the negative rules.
finance.yahoo.com/ne...asian-042310529.html
It’s too early to say it, the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests is still negative, which will make assets price from buying rise to drop. PBOC didn’t understand the negative rules.
Comment:
For ignoring Renminbi's uncertainty I use US dollar for price it. We take base point at the Dec. 2013 USD/CNY= 6.0
We have: (XHY0/CNY)/(USD/CNY)= XHY0/USD and multiple it by 6.0