Long XIV             @ 20.50

- VIX             futures are back in contango (currently 4.5% from F1 to F2)
- SPY             broke through resistance validating double bottom (see chart below). Although there are some upcoming resistance, SPY             has momentum behind it. My assumption is VIX             futures will remain in contango as a result.
- Since 1/20 SPY             has increased ~9.6% where as XIV             has increased ~26.3% (35% since 2nd bottom on 2/11).
- XIV             long entry after a VIX             spike AND SPY             strong support hold would have resulted in significant gains.

XIV             is significantly more volatile. It is a reasonable conclusion XIV             has the potential to generate much greater returns if SPY's momentum is at least sustained and the VIX             is under control. It also has the potential for much greater loss with a VIX             spike.

Instead of a short-term long SPY             trade with potentially a ~4% expected gain, I am going long XIV             . This is a higher risk trade that has the potential to generated much higher return.


1D: SPY             CHART
Trade active: Trade still active. SPY has the potential to go to 207-208 before facing much resistance. Making SL adjustments to protect gains. Considering moving TP to 25.5 - 26.5.

Trade closed: target reached: TP @ $24.70

20.49% gain in 20 days.
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