Lg XIV (short time frame), Trade Journal
Long XIV @ 20.50
- VIX are back in contango (currently 4.5% from F1 to F2)
- SPY broke through resistance validating (see chart below). Although there are some upcoming resistance, SPY has momentum behind it. My assumption is VIX will remain in contango as a result.
- Since 1/20 SPY has increased ~9.6% where as XIV has increased ~26.3% (35% since 2nd bottom on 2/11).
- XIV long entry after a VIX spike AND SPY strong support hold would have resulted in significant gains.
XIV is significantly more volatile. It is a reasonable conclusion XIV has the potential to generate much greater returns if SPY's momentum is at least sustained and the VIX is under control. It also has the potential for much greater loss with a VIX spike.
Instead of a short-term long SPY trade with potentially a ~4% expected gain, I am going long XIV . This is a higher risk trade that has the potential to generated much higher return.
1D: SPY CHART
20.49% gain in 20 days.