Calling a major top and new leg down starting tomorrow.
All the stars have aligned, perfectly positioned short (August 18th expiry - solid black vertical line) on Friday 4 points from the top (pink horizontal line).
Couldn't be happier with this bet. If it breaks down weak resistance at 6763 in a few days then we're off to the races! If it reverses and confirms itself I will close out my puts for a modest win and wait 2 weeks. If it reverses it may reach 7011 and then BOOM, down! I doubt it though.
Some big fish, likely a Hedge Fund, agreed with me though filling an order in the queue for 350 contracts for $3.4 million. If it pulls off for them they are looking at a gain of $1.8 million profit for 3 weeks work..Oh how the other half live!
By that time any rally will have definitely run out of steam, I'll reposition and have another crack at the September expiry. I will go as far as saying that we will then see my contention validated 100% without question for the monster 20-22% dump . At the moment I would give an 80% confidence rating for this dump that the cascade in price action begins tomorrow.
Interestingly the 6851 level we just passed last week was the Blow Off Top reached in the XJO at the peak of the Market (Nov 2007) prior to the biggest dump in modern history, the Housing induced Credit Crisis of 2008. How's them Apples..?
The Markets can only bear so much "Fed pivot" fantasy talk until Wall st & CNBC analysts wake up, smell the economic coffee and any notion of a Market bottom being in and the Fed Put riding to the rescue this time will be dispelled as the absolute QE Hopium bunk that it is!
If the Fed and/or the RBA takes that dangerously irresponsible/economically unthinkable path and capitulates or even relents on taming the WILD inflation here and across the World then you know "they" are DELIBERATELY trying to collapse the Real Economy and we NEED to prepare for HYPERINFLATION. This will facilitate widespread acceptance of the Totalitarian CBDC's and usher in The Great Reset which is a fancy way of saying a digitally enabled Global Communist Police State. Prepare NOW!
God bless and all the breasts! xxCM
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CORRECTION:
"Some big fish, likely a Hedge Fund, agreed with me though filling an order in the queue for 350 contracts for $3.4 million. If it pulls off for them they are looking at a gain of $1.8 million profit for 3 weeks work..Oh how the other half live!"
Got the maths wrong. should read:
" If it pulls off for them they are looking at a gain of $5.225 million profit for 3 weeks work"
Wow! Lol, one can always dream.
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There is another more conservative possibility that the move runs its course to around 6200 for an intervening low before going any further where I will be closing my puts there if we encounter stiff opposition from reflexive Bulls and the Theta picture is looking 'on the nose'...
but that's still not the ultimate bottom. Not by a long shot!
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Just checked the Futures for tomorrow and it shows a 47 pt impulse to around the 7010 area I mentioned in the original post so we may get there first before the draw down begins on Tuesday.
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Market rolling over...finally. Dont know if it will get all the way but we'll be watching.Should be well in the money tomorrow.
Next time I'll be more cognisant that the majority of Market participants are gronks and will chase any pofteenth of a nothing even when it smells like complete bs if it means easy money when attempting to get the timing right.
At the money options are psychologically punishing if you get either timing or contention wrong. This means you have to be as precise as possible...or spend unnecessarily purchasing deeper into the money as 'buffer insurance'.
Life on the bleeding edge eh..?
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OK NEW TARGET FINAL REVISION>
Looks like things wont be so dramatic and I will be closing out at 6200. Price action is not the same amplitude as last dump at start of June likely amplified by tax loss selling into end of June quarter. I'll remember that one next time.
So 6200 it is for 767 points...cant complain, just not shooting out the lights with this one. I'll initiate calls at the turnaround up into the Sept 18 Expiry. Sorted!
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Last night in the US some good economic data has changed the technical picture a bit. A slightly different situation here in Oz but seeing price action here has convincingly broken the upper trend channel. My targets now have been revised AGAIN!
Lol, when I say "FINAL" I mean final!
New targets : 4 possibilities each with increasingly better payoffs:
1) 6760 or back to upper trend channel bouncing off that and ending this trade > pay off 200 pts. >probability of outcome> .5
2) 6680 False breakdown whipsaw, have to be quick to close here >payoff 280 pts >probability of outcome> .3
*** If it closes lower here option 3/4 Probability of outcome> 1 , were this to occur I give them equal probability ratings of .5
3) 6430 Test of 20th June low. Failure to break lower produces a double bottom and effectively a technical end to the 2022 Bear Market. >payoff 530 pts >probability of outcome> .1
4) 6200 is best I can hope for before expiry > payoff 760 pts probability of outcome> .1
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The DUMP is so close now I can spit on it.
It seems I was 2 weeks premature. One final push, the Bulls will be spent and this Ponzi gets dumped on Monday. Its really only been the scam of a US Market that has kept the Bull Trap going this long with Blackrock buying massive call positions on the heavily weighted AAPL to keep the pump alive.
Now that they have almost trapped the max number of possible longs for MAX pain, they will flip 180 degrees early next week.
I expect the treacherous Ukrainian 'FAKE' regime's grossly risky & irresponsible behaviour will be the match that lights the fuse when one of their US supplied HIMARS hits a bullseye on the Zaporozhye Nuclear facility.
This will be blamed on Russia falsely and illogically as it is they, that have the most to lose where this to happen as it will halt any further Russian advances towards the Dneiper.
This will be a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl! Lets make no bones about it. Worse, in fact, as it will affect a much wider region blanketing Southern Russia and several countries in the region.
This I suspect is what the US/Zio 'Deep State' Neo Con Cabal are angling for. Who knows? Mother Nature may flip the script and blow a gale back towards Kiev devastating Western Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Austria and several smaller Eastern European Nations.
Perhaps that is what the sponsors of this heinous geopolitical scam proxy war wanted in the first place..? Weakening its main competitors on both sides of the Dneiper in their relentless , 'by all means' march towards Global Hegemony and 'One World Government'... Time will tell. Either way they have hedged their bets.
The Markets though should make steady progress down in the next leg of this MONSTER Bear - where & when it will end God only knows..?
Anyway, I got trounced being far too aggressive on my shorts, have reloaded up for scaling into September expiry...lets see how this lot fare?
Goosed and faked for weeks on hope...perhaps the TRUTH will come out to collapse these markets.