After burning thru a tonne of Money on Puts dated far too short since March 24th, I think I finally have it right
since the Global "ROLLOUT" of the incredibly annoying campaign of concerted MARKET WIDE INTERFERENCE by 1st World Central Banks in what has amounted to the CIRCUS equivalent of an
' ALL BELLS, WHISTLES COMPLETE WITH STUPID HORNS' CLOWN PARADE PAR EXCELLENCE !!!'
Whilst it was OK to kick the can down the road for many years, that required a fundamental prerequisite to continue;
..that there still was a road to kick it down !!!
Unfortunately he Clown Car full of Central Bankers, Socialists and Keynesian Economists has failed to note the Skull and Crossbones sign screaming:
"DANGER !!! ROAD ENDS !!! YOUR LIFE IS AT RISK !!! TURN BACK NOW !!!"
As such, the Clown Car, full of CLOWNS falls off the cliff and begins tumbling into the abyss starting this Monday 27th July 2020 and we will see the start of the Elliot [ C Wave ] down in
what will be devastating to MOST ASSET PRICES in a rampant continuation of the ANGRY Bear's RAMPAGE that was briefly put on hold ONLY via MASSIVE GLOBAL STIMULUS, STAGGERING MONEY PRINTING and HELICOPTER MONEY for
ALL [much of it pumped into the Markets as Speculation] and ALL MANNER of stupid Central Bank Interference and an unprecedented 'propping up' of Zombie Consumers/Workers/Businesses and Investors to
such an outlandish,unnecessary level I think even the dyed in the wool Socialist Maynard Keynes might have questioned as 'excessive' & 'inefficient'...how about 'not prudent' Maynard? Me thinks so very much!
After a good amount of some well informed reading tonight I AM convinced that on Monday...
the Levee breaks and OOOOOFFFFTTTT !!! Watch out below.
To save writing an EPIC to justify my belief to you and largely plagiarising much of what others have written, I've included the links that confirmed and strengthened a view I already had to confidently call
"TIME" on this Clown Parade anf for Fundamentals, Sanity and Truth to re-assert itself : The Music has stopped, Party is over, BULLS GO HOME or face nothing short of Financial Genocide.
Wait until the Market assimilates the information contained in the links below. Sobering reading indeed...
I ALSO draw your attention to the Double top that was soundly rejected today as even Johnny Public has begun to ask the million dollar question:
"How can the Stock Market be going up yet..?"
The data, the data, data..?
I note, interestingly, that next week's predicted Market Meltdown will just so happen to coincide with the Gold spot price making new ALL TIME HIGHS this weekend.
I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions just from that KEY piece of information.
Gold is still "the Canary in the Coalmine."
Stay safe and God Bless.
xCM
@MystryBox & @Fractal777 > I think our time has arrived! Thank Christ for that as anymore of this Market Insanity I think I may have gone "Joker" and flipped ! ! !
if anyone is not clear the coloured boxes in the Chart represent the payoff from my September 17th Puts.
Fingers crossed. Good thing I caned it in the first leg down otherwise I'd be somewhat unhappier..! : (
Still going to try to appeal to Govt to refund the ~20 K burnt since March 24th Intervention. Had they not thrown money at it my bankroll would be significantly healthier.
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a good twitter link gauging the sentiment on The Street >
To be clear, the "Market Meltdown" I mention above STARTS this week. I dont expect it will CCRASH this week however the drawdown will begin gradually and accelerate in the following weeks.
I expect to be well in the money by week 3 from this post and for the Intraday drops of +5% to begin which should extend for several weeks thereafter.
Now is not a time to be buying shares that AREN'T DEFENSIVE in Nature and negatively co-related to Corona virus infection/death rates.
Today saw mild confirmation of my Thesis with a Rally at open to 6094.5 reverse late in the Morning session to reach a low of 6010.4 and close 15 pts higher at a level respectably lower than previous close.
Take that Bulls. BOOM.
Fingers crossed it continues.
xCM
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On top all this, this summary on Earnings reporting this week from Seeking Alpha:
"Big earnings week
"You need to understand that this week is about one thing and one thing only: It's about earnings. First time it's been like that in a while," CNBC's Jim Cramer declared, with Q2 results set to pour in. Today investors will hear how McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Raytheon (NYSE:RTX), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) fared during the coronavirus pandemic and their expectations for the future. U.S. stock index futures are 0.3% lower ahead of the big earnings announcements, which will include Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) in the coming days."
Here it comes.
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This 'dataful' comment from a Seeking Alpha commentator to the awesome analysis on the same Publication. [link at bottom]
Seeking Alpha is the 'ducks nuts' when it comes to expert analysis. One of the few forms of 'constructive' Social Media as opposed to the Mainstream, mind polluting, time wasting trash of Facebook and Twitter.
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"SilentRage Comments974 | Following Current PE ratios: AMZN - 144 AAPL - 30 MSFT - 35 GOOG - 31 FB- 33 NFLX - 81 TSLA - 729 Not one of those PE ratios are "decent". "Disgustingly High" would be a better description. 27 Jul 2020, 07:24 AM
Apparently TSLA valued at 263b values each car they are capable of Manufacturing at capacity of, wait for it...
LOL - $700,000 !!! ROFL I wonder what the Margin is on that ! HAHAAHAAA! Fk! It just gets funnier !
: D
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Updated Chart.
If it doesn't start penetrating that green Ichimoku cloud soon I'll be assuming the Clowns have won (for now) and will be looking for a good down day between whatever day it happens to be and the pink vertical decision cutoff to offload my options and recoup at least some reasonable $ value.
Wow, just wow, that limp wristed sideways action is lifeless and has the RBA's grimy Clown prints all over it.
xCM
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Chart>
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More Chart confirmation the Bull is starting to capitulate.
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Triple Top reached today.
Coinciding with a New Moon where human emotions tend to switch to a new phase, is this one of Fear or Greed..?
The next few days will tell the story. IAM calling a Market top and tomorrow we head toward ' The Green Zone.'
God Bless.
xCM
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A quadruple top..???
This Intervention gets more ridiculous by the day.
Seriously am considering bailing and recouping some funds but that comes with the added risk that I lose my hedge for my equities were the Market to turn dramatically.
Decisions, decisions..
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Clowns have won.
Closed sold the options and walked away with something as opposed to nothing.
I'll be amazed (and gutted) if I hit my break even let alone the 1st target.
Still think a collapse is on the cards just as to timing..?
the Triple Top was rejected (once again) but this time it rallied in the morning THEN was sold down and finished lower than Open printing a nice red hammer candle,
often a portent for future downside moves.
Monday/ Tuesday looks well set up for a significant solid red candle.
See how the news is over the weekend and tonight's print for the US S&P500 ?
Cheers and thanks.
xCM
TheMarketDog2
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I agree with you. But... I think it will take a long time before the market adjust for it. For me it is a none sense, totally irrational. But the market is only emotions in reality.
My father actually called the Feb drop... should have listen. Then when I thought we would see new lows before November, he said no way... will spiral down for at least 2 years.
I definitely think he's right.
Let's see things that way : the market used to be forward looking. Now the average stock holding is 4 months. Therefore on average people are looking to see a profit in the quarter.
I've poste'd this recently, and it looks very much like yours : It's simple : people bet it all on 5 companies.Will these 5 companies be in a very strong position in 3/4 months? I think so.
The ripple effects from this crisis are far from over, from companies & government debts to the unemployed people, it will take a long time before it goes to hit these 5 stocks.
Now the 1st domino of the chain is falling: people's job. But the governments won't be able to pay forever 600 usd/week to people for which job's have been permanently removed due to business changes...
Then the other dominos will fall, companies, bank ('s earnings), and then tech ('s earning) then big tech's earning...
craigemm
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@guibl,
I dont know G do unemployed people buy overpriced phones..?
AMZN should do well still on its way to becoming World's biggest Co. by turnover likewise NTFLX sould do well from people staying at home but FB, Googs, AAPL Im not so bullish about as the GENERAL RECESSION and resultant
lower Demand, once the funny money is over and those borderline Zombie businesses face destiny, not to mention consumer confidence being significantly battered, Global trans-nationals should see significant drops in Demand
for I-Phones and number of advertisements.
Dont forget the Macro picture...The Great Recession is only getting started and is yet to bite.
I'd urge you to view the Chart and read the Commentary I wrote when the Crash first broke for my take on the BIG PICTURE and what to expect for the rest of this crucial decade of massive change. It is the most
important TA I have ever done.
God Bless u G.
xCM
TheMarketDog2
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@craigemm, completely agree, but same for AMZN as discretionary spending is likely to decrease now that people had their little fun during the stay at home boredom.
Also agree that this is only starting... so either we are completely wrong... or a lot of people (incl. wall street) are.
But when you see that the gov. started reporting unemployment excluding the beneficiaries of the federal support (wolfstreet.com/2020/08/06/number-of-people-on-state-or-federal-unemployment-insurance-jumps-to-32-1-million-second-highest-ever-week-20-of-u-s-labor-market-collapse/) if you do the math, the job report of May was 9M better than expected... oh well just because these 9millions were not counted since they don't fall under states unemployement.
these kind of accounting practice will make the market catch up as some point.
thumbs up dude.
craigemm
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@guibl,
The only reason I single AMZN out is for their low cost/broad Market share strategy. Which should be a winning business model in times of thrift.
Heck I bought my friend a cell phone holder for his car that was "used but like new" which was news
to Me that they were re-selling stuff!
xCM
TheMarketDog2
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@craigemm, oh yes, people in europe are buying from the amzn marketplace since a long time, most of the time it's about the returns
I always have time to listen to the much wizend and proven Titans of Finance...there is a reason why they are considered such and they are always cognizant of the "BIG PICTURE"
Cheers G.
xCM
ashainp
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AS much as I would love for stocks to go back to March levels, it's highly unlikely mainly due to elections and manipulation.