On February 02nd, we cautioned traders about a potential new historical high to 93.08 using this WEEKLY chart.
Since then, a sent price to a current weekly high of about 84.75, corresponding to a 2-month old structural resistance of a . For the astute, trader, one should expect the current rally to stall at 50% of the recent downward impulse leg that developed over the past 6 candles from above $88.00 to recent higher-low level.
At this point, we find no significant technical event that should alter our original predictive analysis and forecasting. Our directional bias remains with a cautious technical mark at 93.08 as a potential overhead reversal, and probable distant targets down below.
A break above 93.08 will prompt us to redefine new overhead targets with greater granularity than we can provide at the moment.
David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
PS: Here is a weekly SPX chart worth considering:
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AAPL - https://www.tradingview.com/e/OqhN6oTc/
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FB - https://www.tradingview.com/e/tfPPZa0e/
GOOG - https://www.tradingview.com/e/J5A3VRWX/
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TWTR - https://www.tradingview.com/e/Rnr5FZ93/
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Here, the energy sector was expected to roll, as it did.
If there is another sector or larger, more inclusive index, where the Predictive/Forecasting Model expressed a high probability of a rally, then I would have to rely on that - Would you care to tell me what chart you are referring to?
Most recently, I have shared a $USDJPY chart showing the potential for a rally. The $USDJPY has walked in near lockstep to the SPX, so a rally might remain possible, but likely limited, as I had posted. If I had to formulate an opinion about what might be going on between conflicting markets, is that as large sectors may start to show some weakness, or outright reversal, there may well be others that may take the lead in terms of prying and poking through highs, the aggregate movement creating a correction in the index in which these might be represented.
In any case, thank you for bringing up any contradictions I may have expressed. None of the targets are based on belief, expectation or opinion. There are 100% based on a Predictive/Forecasting Model against which I used to try to trade against whenever there appeared to be simply outrageous contradictions with my own fundamental or otherwise pattern-based opinions. It simply has beat me every time. So, if there is a contradiction, it is more likely a matter of my chancing the wrong opinion (which I practically never share, as I rely fully on the Model) against a Model that has its own limitations and faults, but far lesser than I could ever achieve on my own subjective performance.