Update: A Rally, Then A Rolling? | #XLE $SPDR $AMEX

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On February 02nd, we cautioned traders about a potential new historical high to 93.08 using this WEEKLY chart.

Since then, a bullish pinbar sent price to a current weekly high of about 84.75, corresponding to a 2-month old structural resistance of a Shark . For the astute, advanced pattern trader, one should expect the current rally to stall at 50% of the recent downward impulse leg that developed over the past 6 candles from above $88.00 to recent higher-low level.

At this point, we find no significant technical event that should alter our original predictive analysis and forecasting. Our directional bias remains bullish with a cautious technical mark at 93.08 as a potential overhead reversal, and probable distant bearish targets down below.

A break above 93.08 will prompt us to redefine new overhead targets with greater granularity than we can provide at the moment.


David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA


PS: Here is a weekly SPX chart worth considering:

- Other recent analysis and charting:
AAPL - https://www.tradingview.com/e/OqhN6oTc/
AMD - https://www.tradingview.com/e/ySdvtzok/
EBAY - https://www.tradingview.com/e/XWUVhvT0/
FB - https://www.tradingview.com/e/tfPPZa0e/
GOOG - https://www.tradingview.com/e/J5A3VRWX/
MSFT - https://www.tradingview.com/e/SLHE0cgv/
TWTR - https://www.tradingview.com/e/Rnr5FZ93/


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Recent forecast hits:

1 - #USDollar: http://on.fb.me/19Pf77y
2 - #AUDUSD: http://on.fb.me/1kDHbdB
3 - #NGAS: http://on.fb.me/1aSMYHV
More archived here: http://bit.ly/16JMnH8


Disclaimer: All of our analyses are for educational purpose only. The forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are not trading recommendations. We trust that you would do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional and enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - a.k.a.: 4xForecaster | 4xQuad, LLC.
15 SEP 2015 - Chart Update: Price remains close to forecast:

David Alcindor
ida.pagnottella 4xForecaster
Thank you! how can you be medium term positive on stocks then? I think you wrote you are bullish... this is very deflationary
+1 Reply
4xForecaster ida.pagnottella
Hello @ida.pagnottella - I do not make it a habit to share my opinion on the stock market's direction. What I do stand firm on is my reliance on what the Predictive/Forecasting Model produce as a signal.

Here, the energy sector was expected to roll, as it did.

If there is another sector or larger, more inclusive index, where the Predictive/Forecasting Model expressed a high probability of a rally, then I would have to rely on that - Would you care to tell me what chart you are referring to?

Most recently, I have shared a $USDJPY chart showing the potential for a rally. The $USDJPY has walked in near lockstep to the SPX, so a rally might remain possible, but likely limited, as I had posted. If I had to formulate an opinion about what might be going on between conflicting markets, is that as large sectors may start to show some weakness, or outright reversal, there may well be others that may take the lead in terms of prying and poking through highs, the aggregate movement creating a correction in the index in which these might be represented.

In any case, thank you for bringing up any contradictions I may have expressed. None of the targets are based on belief, expectation or opinion. There are 100% based on a Predictive/Forecasting Model against which I used to try to trade against whenever there appeared to be simply outrageous contradictions with my own fundamental or otherwise pattern-based opinions. It simply has beat me every time. So, if there is a contradiction, it is more likely a matter of my chancing the wrong opinion (which I practically never share, as I rely fully on the Model) against a Model that has its own limitations and faults, but far lesser than I could ever achieve on my own subjective performance.

ida.pagnottella 4xForecaster
ok very clear thank you, I believe I saw the UsdJpy chart which I interpreted as bullish for SPY. Thanks
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