supere

The most important picture of all

Short
AMEX:XLF   SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST
While most traders and market analysts seem to be glued to the short term, I believe this longer term picture of the financial sector is crucial. In my eyes, the structure that has formed since the Feb 2020 top greatly resembles the topping pattern of the GFC with respect to price action and RSI divergence, except it is clearly a larger structure. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the market is about to resume its descent with much greater intensity within a couple weeks. If we are lucky, then it will eventually be supported by the 2008 lows. However, I do see the possibility that this will become a degree of crash greater than the GFC , comparable to 1929 or even greater than 1929, especially because the initial selloff volume spike was so large.

IMHO, the most unlikely scenario is this 'V' shaped new bull market scenario that the majority seem to be adopting now. Economic fundamentals are too trashed, and bullish sentiment and speculation is much too extreme for that to happen right now. There are basically 6 stocks holding up the entire market at this moment and they are about to top according to Elliott analysis. This entire rally seems to be all hype with no reality priced in.

Comments

I will also add that this is one of the most informative articles
to the big picture set up in the stock market right now that I have seen
I highly recommend that traders read this overview .
5 Star.
+1 Reply
certain areas will hold up, I see a huge crash coming , unemployment is key, foreclosures, credit card defaults, gold is rising, oil is squeezing up, tech is getting very toppy, nice chart great deductions , your a clever technician
Reply
Very well done.The banking system is the key.
As long as the financials stay intermediate bearish,
the foundation of the market is subject to continuing unforeseen risk.
Reply
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