step_ahead_ofthemarket

FINANCIALS JULY MONTHLY 2019 (DETAILED-END OF THE CYCLE TA)

AMEX:XLF   SPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial
One major detail that stands out is the 30-31$ resistance. In order to continue its bullish run it must close above these levels.

Although this might be a tough task since we are in the late stages of the cycle. My focus in the next year will be this exact sector, since most banks will not be able to hit the same profit margins due to the inversion in the T. bonds yield curve(unless they take on more leverage).

Systematic risk(Beta) has overall increased, because of the trade uncertainties with China.


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Comment:
Weekly detailed TA. One can argue that this might look like an inverted head & shoulders, but this idea is a bit far fetched.

Regardless, 30-31$ strong res points. All we can wait and see how the market will perform this autumn, which will give us a better idea of what's to come post 2020.
Comment:
Quarterly Chart. MACD shows a bullish continuation of the current bullish trend.
Comment:
Option 2 with a different variation of Elliott Waves.

If it breaks 30-31$ there will be a bullish continuation of the trend and an extension into wave 5 to 3 possible targets.
1. 31-32$
2. 37-38$ (40$ psychological resistance)
3. 45-46$

Most likely a breakout will occur if there's a US-China deal this Autumn. Otherwise, the future might be gloomy.

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