After this week, it's fair to say I deserve to get another bearish post in before I look too much like a nut head who's dead-set on seeing a major market correction. & Before I give anyone the benefit of the doubt about this post - over the past 11 days (I think?), GS has been on the longest losing streak in history (money.cnn.com/2018/09/13/investing/goldman-sachs-stock-david-solomon/index.html). 12 or so trading days ago (Aug 28th, I think) - I called the top. The top for 'a while', at least (stocktwits.com/DerekD_/message/135382287). The past year (123) trading day highs about to cross below the (252) trading day lows is obviously a bearish cross, but whatever investors see with their own moving averages / TA they might see as a contrarian indicator, so I think there's enough bullishness left to see another head-fake before that all comes to a (deep) end. Another reason I say that, & really the main reason I started looking into financials entirely before becoming completely bearish was PFG. The black bar pattern to the right of the chart is PFG's current trend, compared to its trend in 2008 before the 2009 crash. Like AIG, PFG is another investment / insurance company (little less than half in size) that I've used as a leading indicator for the performance of financials. Right now, it's on its last leg to making a few upward moves before really starting a downward spiral. I'm sure you could say the chart is a coincidence, & the fact that both XLF & PFG both merely reached their ATH's back from 2008 (Fib used on chart is based on highs / first drop in 2008) before starting the downtrend. But the market doesn't lie, & trust me I've tried to spot any bubble / crisis potential / whatever we're looking at but in an overall picture, Goldman Sachs is looking @ a picture perfect clone of what it saw in 2015. While PFG is reflecting back on it's 2008 trend. & while XLF isn't acting the same as it did in 2008, but I think the ATH's being near exactly alike is something I really can't get off the back of my mind of what the market thinks for the long run.
@cyberluck, You know, on this comment (my GS idea) I said we'd start a bear market on Sept 25th. As in no more highs (for GS, at least). Although it was spot on, I had a 2nd & 3rd date in mind - October 4th & October 6th. <- These 2 dates would've been the start of the entire market to feel pain. I literally knew I should've had a note or a screenshot or just something to back it up that way I wouldn't have had to claim this that & the other but, if I find one I'll comment back lol. We're in a bear market - I can say with confidence the entire market is going to feel it.
DerekD_
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@DerekD_, You can scroll down to one of my last comments
cyberluck
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@DerekD_, to me a bear market is an unpredictable pattern. I don't consider technical corrections bear markets but that's I guess just a matter of perception. 2001 "crash" and 2008 "crash" was baked into technicals, this one will be as well. The question is which wave pattern are you focused on. Finishing wave 5 within wave 3 SuperCycle means that we're going to go into technical wave 4 which goes down but then go up to technical wave 5 on the supercycle...so that is important when people talk, to bring that up every time. If you're just trading shorts then that's bear market for you I suppose as it takes a while but I swing or hold long so this is buying time for me if nothing else to offset the other positions because I bought too high or didn't get out on time...OR since I have 3 accounts, to buy in another one and sell as I cross the high points...vs. cost averaging if you don't want to hold too much of one stock. Either way we are not yet in the mega crash they're speculating will hit in 2020/2022....we will definitely not have an extended wave 5 on the super pattern since we're finishing up or just finished extended wave 3 and you don't have 2 extended waves within 5 wave structure.
So, just buy to hold long if you're not confident to trade sloping down but it's easy to count down.....elliott waves are frustrating as it's easy to lose count...best spot to learn that though is trading crypto...happens so fast, you learn your lessons quickly ;)
DerekD_
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@cyberluck, Lol it's funny you say that, because to me - using the strategy I use, I really wouldn't count on a 20 - 30% drop unless it's one recognizable from 2015, 2008, 2001 w/ atleast a 65% correlation coefficient - which, even then isn't common (Ex. NASDAQ linear regression vs DOW Oct 2017-Oct 2018) <- & these are major moving averages. GS is at 76.01% via pattern & 73.57% via Log returns from ATH compared to 2015. It's funny you mention trading based off slope because that's a huuuggeeee basis I prioritize when considering patterns lmao. But I predicted the top of GS Aug 28th - the day it started that longest streak of losses or whatever in history I guess it was. stocktwits.com/DerekD_/message/135382287. Definitely wish I knew more about elliot waves but I just couldn't ever keep the interest, but you know 2015 was the same story as it is now if you think about it - which is why I think financials are taking the beating. "China economy slowing" <- they didn't even have tariffs back then? "Emerging market crisis" <- that was before US even began to raise rates. "Worries about oil prices" <- the US hit almost 5% GDP growth when oil hit $30 a barrel. We're at 4.2% growth w/ $75 crude, much higher housing prices, tax cuts, a deficit that's GROWN even with a stronger dollar - & I think the PPI is a red flag being waved as to how we've seen rates outpace inflation when the producers can't even raise prices because there isn't demand for US goods in the first place. I'm getting too off topic lmao - but go long on whatever as long as you're confident in it mane. I'm just saying I did my DD on financials, I wouldn't even be sarcastic & tell you to go long.