extended the downleg off 56.47 (June 18, 2015 high) via a 6-week falling channel
to reach 52.46 Monday (July 27, 2015), near 61.8% of the 48.83/58.23 rise and the channel support as well. Subsequent strong rebound forms a morning star bullish
reversal pattern (as shown on the daily chart
) and signal further strength towards the 54.20/54.52 zone (July 23/22, 2015 highs) near the channel resistance. A decisive breakout there is needed to suggest a significant low is in place for a move towards 55.15 (July 17, 2015 lower high). However, failure to hold the 52.46 low would negate the near-term bullish
scenario and accelerate the YTD downtrend towards 51.04 (76.4% of the 48.83/58.23 rise).
Short term: bullish
Long term: neutral