2 more months of declines could be seen into the late spring. This corresponds roughly with the timing of the last correction and when flu season will likely end. Given the velocity and severity of the recent decline, getting a ~25% correction in line with the last correction in December 2018 seems likely and exceeding the magnitude of that decline is also a significant possibility. A slowdown in business activity caused by precautionary measures could very well be what history writes as the start of the next recession, which was projected to happen given the already existing slowdown in GDP growth. The perception of the high likelihood of a recession in and of itself warrants a significant discount to current prices. Selling will continue as people decide whether the impact of the virus is priced in or not, but as news of the virus spreading continues it will likely be challenging for XLK to find a footing.
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Wait for a bottoming pattern to emerge before restarting to buy.
I also felt that the 70s would be the bottom, but now not too sure. Today was a dramatic day w/ US and global news accelerating a dramatic drop. Is it ready to start consolidating? If we enter long term bear market, seems like it could go down more.
However, tech companies, some that are less product based and more SaSS based, or shipment based, even, could perform better than regular non tech stocks with the increase in WFH, etc. Production can impact the stocks like Intel, NVDIA, if they're in an impacted area, but people will need WFH equipment, etc. Services like Adobe SaSS, Salesforce, etc I can see doing well fundamentally b/c knowledge workers will still be working, from home.
However right now, it's just following marketing trend.
mistera123
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@ladram, these are rough estimates. I was going off of the believe that this correction is fundamentally worse than the one we experience at the end of 2018. Where the trade war was projected to impact global trade, the coronavirus is in fact significantly impacting the global supply chain. If this results in a recession, we could very well see a 2008 like decline of around 50%. See my most recent idea - tradingview.com/chart/XLK/c0rL4XsV-XLK-Worst-Case-Scenario/.
However, tech companies, some that are less product based and more SaSS based, or shipment based, even, could perform better than regular non tech stocks with the increase in WFH, etc. Production can impact the stocks like Intel, NVDIA, if they're in an impacted area, but people will need WFH equipment, etc. Services like Adobe SaSS, Salesforce, etc I can see doing well fundamentally b/c knowledge workers will still be working, from home.
However right now, it's just following marketing trend.