I am not a technician. But even i can put horizontal, and diagonal lines on a crypto chart. What a time to be alive!
When i look at XLM , all i see is broken patterns. Broken flags everywhere! And our current small frag is about to break, favoring the side.
Not a fan of XLM
Let me start by telling that I am very uninterested in Stellar Lumens project.
This project has been a sleeper for too long. No big announcements, no new functions that would turn people on. Decentralized Exchange announcement almost dozed people off.
Being a ripple wannabe, it is far too similar to digitalized fiat.
However, because it is getting close this quarter's lowest value, there is an opportunity to gain more BTC!
What do i think will happen?
Let's be honest, XLM does not stay stable at any price level. Only reason to buy this coin is to flip after a few percentages of gain.
For that reason, I believe it will show us a short-lived sideways action (3150-3200 range) and after a week, begin a slow-fall to low 1600s.
That's where the strongest support awaits. Most of the HODLers live there.
When to buy?
Many TA analysts expect a XLM run near 3000 range. However it is very unlikely because BTC/USD is the current focus.
And market will stay focused on BTC at least for another month.
As long as Bitcoin is in turmoil, alts are not safe. XLM does not have strong fundamentals and 2018 roadmap hasn't progressed yet, so it won't be safe either.
Therefore you should wait till its great fall, and consider other alts meanwhile.
Scenario 1 (Least likely to happen) - Breakout at mid March
If BTC stabilizes during next 2 weeks (a miracle perhaps?), a serious breakout attempt about 3000 is imminent.
Scenario 2 (Somewhat more likely to happen) - Breakout Early April
Around 2400-2200 is a good support. However it will provide much unwanted resistance as well.
A breakout at that range is again depending on BTC stablity. If market turns all around , start accumulating in 2300-1900 zone.
Scenario 3 (Because i hate buying hyped up shitcoins) - Breakout Late April / Early May
I keep telling people not to buy XLM . But even i can't stay away from a coin when it's at all time low.
And 1650 to 1500 satoshi is LOW for even a weak prospect like XLM . I believe this is where the next bull run happen.
Around mid April to early May, market will stabilize, BTC will hopefully be again. Alts will follow the course.
I will accumulate XLM below 1650 satoshis like crazy. Like, "sell my kidney to buy a few Ks of XLM" crazy.
Not trade advice tho.
Protect any gains with tight stop-losses.
However I am at a small loss cause of stubbornness.
Expect a weak breakout attempt (sell opportunity) as alts copy BTC progression right now. Sell around 3200 and and wait.
As i said before, re-Purchase window will open somewhere around 1600-1500 range. Be patient!
Scenario 1 seemed improbable but so is the sudden bull market.
4000 satoshi level is a big support and if it passes 5000 mark, expect a bull run towards a new all time high.
Remember to protect your investment. Do not sleep on any token. So called bull market is a fragile thing. It can trick you at a moments notice and it probably will.