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Let's Talk About XLM /USD...
XLM is providing a great example that many traders take a long time to understand and that is how wave structures can mold into other counts and how to be able to determine which count is most probable and how to setup a trade on it.
Notice that in the short term the size of the wave structures lead perfectly to a 1:1 extension that prints the red ABC as the most likely scenario. In the short term all 3 counts have a high probability of moving together to at least hit that target of .27 cents. We just got a perfect test of .145 at the .382 fib retracement for a 4th wave. Looking good. What happens thereafter is what I call the Y (turning point). Due to the amount of other trade styles that take part in the market we will determine at this price point whether there is more buy interest or sell interest.
This offers us the opportunity to wait for the market to tell us what it wants to do and because of the Fibonacci relationships we can relate to each wave structure we can have high probability invalidation levels that warn us of a market structure break or the likelihood of one count performing over another. For example, the blue count needs to get squeezed up with a 5th wave that is of equal length to wave 1. If price fails to do this and pulls back too deeply then we invalidate the count and look for the green count to offer the next support and opportunity for the bulls to take us higher. We only want the green count to pull back to previous wave 1 support or the .382 fib retracement, so if it goes deeper than that then we have a high probability that the red ABC was the appropriate count and we're connecting to the downside.
DOES XLM Have More Potential Than XRP?
XLM can outperform XRP if it prints a 1,2,1,2 count which would follow closer to the Green wave structure identified in this chart. So it's definitely possible, but the key thing to take away in my opinion is the crucial reaction we are soon to see at .27 cents for XLM .
I hope you enjoyed this analysis and if you'd like to stay up to date and get notifications of how this count unfolds and what we can learn from it then make sure to follow me on tradingview here and I'll keep you all posted. in the meantime check out my other assets and counts I'm following such as the ADA count below that has some upside potential as well. Want a hedge short? check out the LINK count.