This is how I am seeing things. Not financial advice, I just use trading view to keep an immutable log of my perspectives to look back on.
The simplest zoom out view is that xlm is in an ascending wedge pattern, and a conservative measured move break from this would take the price to about 7 bucks. Of course we can define the triangle wick to wick on the top side for a more optimistic price of about 16 bucks. I do think this upper range is unlikely right now because it doesn't line up with the other simple looks below.
Next up is a look at some fib extensions. Notice that the strongest move last cycle came in after a back test of the 20 month simple moving average. If we set the fib so that the .236 lines up with the swing high and the 0 lines up with the back test, there is a pretty good estimate of last cycle's high. Also note that the 1 line is spot on the long term support and resistance zone that we are currently battling, and that level has been important for years.
There is also a cheeky little channel that can be drawn that points to the same target zone.
And finally this is all consistent with the XRP price targets and my XLM/XRP ratio expectations
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should also mention, I put most of my dry powder into xlm after the bounce...dca'd across .2 -.23 range. No stoploss.