XLMUSD | An opened alligator mouth is expected for bullish rally

Hi friends hope you are well and welcome to the new update on Stellar . Today in this article we will see how the XLM is turning more and more bullish to achieve the highest price ever in its history. But this time the Lumens is also giving some bearish signals on the short-term let's watch the bearish signals first.

Formation of bearish Shark:
On the weekly chart the price action of XLM has completed the formation of bearish Shark pattern. Even though it is difficult to identify that the initial leg is separate or the continuation of the previous movement because the upward movement up to X point Is not as that much long as we can easily declare it as a separate leg. However if we forget the previous movement of the price action and take it from the X point then a complete Shark has been formed. And price action has already visited the potential reversal zone of this Shark . Therefore there is possibility that the priceline will be dropped from here.

Movement in up channel with synchronization with indicators:
On the daily chart the price action of XLM is moving within an up channel . And after hitting the resistance of channel it is likely to drop down again. And the movement within this channel is very much synchronized with the combination of indicators: 1.momentum 2. stochastic 3. directional movement . If we take a closer look at the chart then it can be easily observed whenever the price action reaches at the support of this channel and momentum turns bullish and stochastic also gives bull cross and finally when the positive directional indicator forms a bull cross with the negative directional indicator then the price action turns bullish and reaches up to the resistance of channel. It can be seen in April and also in May 2020. At this time the positive directional indicator is above the negative direction indicator that is the bullish sign. And the ADX is also up that is showing the power of bulls. But now the positive directional indicator is moving down to form bear cross with the negative directional indicator. If this bear cross will be formed then the same ADX will be assigned to the bears and it will be showing the power bearish trend .

Support and resistance levels and moon phases:
After the mid of March 2020 the price action of XLM turned very strong bullish and it broke $0.045 and then $0.06 resistance levels At this time the price action of Lumens has reached at the resistance of $0.08. This resistance level is very strong as on the chart it can be seen that since September 2019 the price action has made several attempts to breakout but so far it is not able to breakout this resistance level . I have also placed the moon phases indicator on this chart. This is very useful indicator to identify the bullish and bearish trends. On the chart we can see there are some full moons and some dark moons. The distance between one moon to another moon is called synodic cycle that is 29.5 days long. The recent dark moon is appeared at the support level of $0.06. That is an indication that it will be difficult for the priceline to break down this support. And the recent full moon it appeared at the resistance level of $0.08. That is showing that the maximum reach of the price action is up to this level. Therefore we need the next dark moon to be appeared above the $0.06 level and the full moon should be appeared more up in order to have break out from $0.08 resistance.

The Stellar is breaking out the falling wedge:
On the weekly chart since January 2019 the price action of Stellar is moving within a falling wedge . I have also placed the volume profile on the complete protection moving within this wedge pattern that is showing the traders interest up to 10 cent. And if we take a closer look at the Bollinger bands then it is moved above the resistance of this wedge pattern. Therefore it was easy for the priceline to cross up the resistance level . Now finally the price action of XLM has crossed up the resistance of the falling wedge . And at this time the new candlestick is opened above this level but the breaking out from this wedge pattern depends where this candlestick will be closed. If it will be completely opened and closed above this level then we will have a successful break out from this pattern. And after breakout if the price action will retest the resistance of this wedge pattern as support then Stellar may drop up to 6 cents before the next rally.

Simple moving averages can form an opened alligator’s mouth:
If we watch the position of the different simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100 and 200 then we can notice that these SMAs are turning strong bullish . If we take a look back at 2017 chart then it can be observed when the 25 simple moving average crossed up all other simple moving averages and the 200 simple moving average move below on others simple moving averages then a complete opened alligator mouth was formed by these SMAs . That produced more than 4000% strong bullish rally. Same as like that the simple moving averages are forming an opened alligator mouth. At this time the 25 simple moving average is moved above all other simple moving averages then we have 50 SMA but so far the 200 simple moving average is moving above 100 SMA . And these two simple moving averages are moving sideways for the long time. Once the 100 SMA will cross up the 200 SMA then a complete opened alligator mouth will be formed that can produce more powerful bullish divergence .

Repetitive harmonic move:
At the end I would like to recall the repetitive move and that is the formation of bullish BAT pattern on the monthly chart. If you take a look back at 2017 chart then the price action of Stellar formed the same BAT on the weekly chart. And when the Stellar moved up from the potential reversal zone it produced more than 4000% massive gains. This time the BAT is formed on the bigger time period chart. Therefore there is possibility that the priceline will produce more profit than the previous rally. However as per Fibonacci sequence of BAT pattern we can set our buying in sell targets as below:
Buy between: $0.11 to $0.059

Sell between: $0.23 to $0.41

So realistically as per above targets the Lumens can produce up to 600% rally.

As recently the price action of XLM has reached at the resistance of the channel that is formed on the daily chart and on the weekly chart the new candlestick is just opened above the resistance of the wedge . Therefore there is a possibility that the price action will start a correction rally to retest the resistance of wedge as support of wedge and to hit the support of the channel as well. However after this correction rally a new bullish move is expected.

Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.


this is my analysis with the same expected results:

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