I have been on a roll with these charts except for the last one which took me by surprise because I was not looking at the signals correctly, and allowed my own emotional bias to skew what was actually happening. As we know now, XLM was in the middle of a Parabolic push and shattered her previous ATH of .5 and hit over .6. There was an immediate retracement, with a failed attempt to breach back into the .6 range that was thwarted at the .58 range. Now we are facing 1 of 2 possibilities: further retracement to previous supports, or further growth.
I have enumerated some of them on this chart via the blue lines. I do not know the exact math to determine the Fibonacci numbers, or how to calculate to the 5th decimal place the specific numbers to look out for. That being said I have been doing well for myself so far and feel that I have a handle on using "prime" numbers as the baseline for my assumptions! By all means, fill me in on how to do the math because I do find it fascinating!
Currently we are, as of 408pm, in a rising pattern, that is testing the maroon hypotenuse of the triangle from the ATH and the lowest low hit so far. We also know that the lows have gotten lower, and the highs have gotten lower, but we haven't quite broken our supports. However, the downward slope is the new support that must be broken to see further upward price action. I do not believe breaking that support will result in the resumption of the parabolic rise, merely a quick push to .54 or .55. Anything beyond that may allow room for speculation, but ultimately XLM must surpass the .58 mark to resume it's upward trajectory and that has seems to have been met with fierce resistance.
What I and many others predict instead is a retracement to sub .50 levels. Some argue .46, others further. What is certain is that the next major support is at .4, and that .44 - .47 are major breaks as well. My theory is that XLM will reach .55 or .56, perhaps only .54, then break towards the mid .40's. I do not believe it will hit .4, even with a long wick. That being said this is Cryptocurrency and anything is possible haha!
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100% correct, I allowed my emotions get the better of me though and missed my chance to short and buy the dip
I have to give credit, this chart played out perfectly. Well done, nice work.
I am disappointed at the minute as I bought around .55900 expecting parabolic continuation before the sell off, but credit to you!
Do you think this signals the start of a negative price action for XLM or does the rebound look strong enough to continue upward trend in the mid term?
Sephiroth4269
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@rflaherty13, I think we will see one more retraction after BTC hits 50k, however, that being said I wasn't expecting the retracement to be as harsh as it was to begin with, so we might be right back in the saddle for "parabolic" movements, even for those of us that missed the retrace, or bought in slightly higher haha. Now from there I would keep an eye on the price of XLM to BTC, if we reach .000012 there is a solid chance that will be the retracement position, but it is equally likely, especially in this bull run, that we go "to the moon" too levels we had only dreamed of! I am selling some of my XLM on the way up to what I perceive to be the next peak at .54 - .55, planning for a retracement to .46 or even .4. From there though the next place is the moon for a fact!
@FlowersFor, It very well could but let me ask you since I’m new to the space and am always looking to learn. I know a lot of people trade actively with Xlm but I buy dips for accumulation and am looking for longer term. Is my strategy worth doing or is it misguided due to the volatility of crypto? I understand TA and have been practicing a lot but the fundamentals of this particular asset have me bullish. Any thoughts? Not just you but anyone with more expertise than I may have. Thanks!
Sephiroth4269
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@WhiteJesus, It is a bullish trend for sure, but there is a correction due to take place, that ultimately did. Now we just see how much steam is left in the engine and where the "true" bottom is. This could very well be the end and we will see another abrupt rise to .58. If that's the case expect a couple days or even weeks of downward trending, and possibly .3 retracement. I just assumed the correction was going to be subtler, or not as harsh as it ended up being. this is my first Parabolic rise, and I learned a great deal by making a LOT of mistakes and assumptions haha
I am disappointed at the minute as I bought around .55900 expecting parabolic continuation before the sell off, but credit to you!
Do you think this signals the start of a negative price action for XLM or does the rebound look strong enough to continue upward trend in the mid term?