Defensive sector vs. Cyclical Sector

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As long as utilities' performance is weaker against cyclical, we can expect bull market to continue - i.e. expect the ratio (price) to stay inside the channel.

If the ratio (price) breaks the channel above, asset managers are moving more aggressively to defensive stocks, which means that they are anticipating that the economy is slowing significantly - i.e. the bull market to be over. The ratio has been staying higher since the end of the last year, but it has had problems to move out of the channel.

However, daily & weekly Golden Cross is close to happen (50-moving average to cross above 200-moving average), but since June ratio has been making lower lows and lower highs. This is a important ratio to watch. Use this to anticipate overall stock market movement.

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